Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 300624 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
346 PM CHST FRI JAN 30 2015

RESENT FOR WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE SHEAR LINE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST
OF THE MARIANAS HAS MADE IT AS FAR AS 148E...BUT APPEARS WEAK AS
WELL. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ISLANDS
AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
6 FEET AT THE RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOYS...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
SATELLITE-DERIVED WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOW A SEASONABLY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO WITHIN 6000 FT OF THE SURFACE.
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE TEMPERED WAVE GRIDS A BIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE INCREASING SEAS BY MONDAY AS WINDS PICK UP TO
15-25 KT. HIGH SURF IS A POSSIBILITY MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS NORTH
SWELL BUILDS TO 5 FT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM POHNPEI TO
KOSRAE AND JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH STILL IN PLACE WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH A
WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 1N161E. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
WITH THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH UNDULATING NORTH TO
SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AT MAJURO AS MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTER WEATHER AT POHNPEI
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON SHOWER
COVERAGE FOR KOSRAE SO THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
KOSRAE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE MODELS SUGGEST THAT TRADE-WIND SWELL HAS DROPPED JUST ENOUGH
SUCH THAT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AT MAJURO.
HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 1 TO 3
FEET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK SITS NEAR THE END OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ISOLATED NEAR WENO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FOR YAP AND PALAU...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TWO
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
DROPS SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND
25 KT. STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD WITH NORTH SWELL
REACHING HEIGHTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT



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