Area Forecast Discussion
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180
FXPQ60 PGUM 131934
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
534 AM CHST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CNMI ALONG WITH A WEAKENING SHEAR
LINE TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST STRATEGY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AS THE
SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS THROUGH TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE SHEAR LINE TO THE
SOUTH DISSIPATES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FEET
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE EXTREME RANGE...
CLIMBING 718 THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO. SHOWERS WILL REACH MAJURO
LATER THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY HEAD WESTWARD. WETTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT KOSRAE BY MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THE SHEAR LINE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH HEADS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. SURF REMAINS HAZARDOUS AT
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS.
ALTIMETRY AND MODELS SUGGEST SWELL ARE NOT YET LARGE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AT MAJURO...BUT SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS AND WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
PERSIST AT POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER CHUUK FROM THE SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT CHUUK BY TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE EAST. SURF HAS FALLEN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT YAP AND
PALAU BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS AT CHUUK. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS AT CHUUK...SEAS HAVE
DECREASED AT YAP AND WINDS WILL SIMILARLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/W. AYDLETT



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