Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022019
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
619 AM CHST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EYE OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR IS LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAIPAN. SOUDELOR CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS. SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO/AREA OF CONTINUOUS RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AS
SOUDELOR IS DEPARTING ON SCHEDULE. DID REDUCE POPS...THUNDER
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOTH
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MOAT AROUND SOUDELOR WILL
SUPPRESS SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON VERY WET MONSOONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST ZONES BY WEDNESDAY. DID EXTEND SCATTERED POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS SOUDELOR DEPARTS...EXPECT RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS
TO COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL
GENERATED BY THE TYPHOON WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE LEANED ON THE LATEST BUOY
READINGS FROM GUAM AND SAIPAN TO INITIALIZE SURF HEIGHTS AND
COMBINED SEAS AS INITIAL WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE COMES IN LOW. DAY SHIFT
MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE SWELL GRIDS IF BUOY READINGS INCREASE OR
DECREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED. MONSOONAL SWELL COULD NECESSITATE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AFTER BLASTING THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN
WITH TYPHOON CONDITIONS LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. LATEST ASCAT/
RAPIDSCAT/WINDSAT ANALYSIS INDICATES 35 KT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TYPHOON SOUDELOR
NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS TO SOUTHEAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AT
1N178E. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOSRAE
THRU TONIGHT AND REACH POHNPEI BY TONIGHT. WITH MAJURO ALREADY
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...GENTLE TRADES SHOULD
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN THERE UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK TRADE
DISTURBANCE FROM NEAR THE DATE LINE MIGHT TRIGGER A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SAME DRIER TRADES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
KOSRAE BY TUESDAY AND POHNPEI BY MIDWEEK. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...
INCREASING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE MIGHT BRING BACK WETTER WEATHER
FROM EAST TO WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH MONSOON WINDS SOUTHEAST OF TYPHOON
SOUDELOR WILL PROLONG UNSTABLE WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU TONIGHT.
AS SOUDELOR SLOWLY TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR POHNPEI SHOULD SHIFT
WESTWARD AND PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR CHUUK BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

A BAND OF CONVERGING WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL WINDS FEEDING
INTO TYPHOON SOUDELOR NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
KOROR AND JUST SOUTH OF YAP. THIS BAND WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER KOROR THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
SOUDELOR MOVES FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...IT WILL
ALLOW THESE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD OVER YAP BY TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SOUDELOR MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...WEATHER MIGHT NOT IMPROVE NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THE MONSOON WINDS WILL CAUSE
SURF TO RISE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE FROM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. THEN BY TUESDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL PRODUCED BY TYPHOON SOUDELOR WILL ALSO AFFECT BOTH PLACES.
THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SWELL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST TODAY FOR GUZ001.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ002.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ152.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4
     PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN/KLEESCHULTE



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