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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 260527
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
327 PM CHST SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FARTHER UPSTREAM TOWARD
THE EAST. A LATE-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS STRETCHED
EAST-WEST ALONG 22N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...AND MODELS INDICATE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR GENTLE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH LATEST GFS...WHICH INDICATES GENTLE
SURFACE WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST BY ABOUT FRIDAY. LOCAL BUOYS SHOW
COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 5 FEET AT
IPAN BUOY. WAVE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON WW3 GUIDANCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI WILL LIKELY CLIMB THIS WEEK WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE
DATE LINE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS. A WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TRADES
BETWEEN 3N AND 7N. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REACH KOSRAE MONDAY
AND POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT. GFS40 INDICATES A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH THE CONVERGENCE NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING IS
DIFFICULT...SO WILL STAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR NOW. MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJURO...BRINGING ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF
CHUUK. A WEAK TROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
OF CHUUK THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CHUUK ONLY SEEING A
POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE TRADES AND ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE WILL APPROACH CHUUK FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KOROR WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND SOUTH OF YAP THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS
BUT CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP TONIGHT AND TO PALAU THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE AT
YAP BEYOND MIDWEEK...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. IF MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE YAP FORECAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. KOROR LOOKS TO BECOME FAIRLY DRY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/KLEESCHULTE