Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 082104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
704 AM ChST Fri Dec 9 2016

Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows almost no
showers within the Marianas waters. The VAD wind profile reveals
east winds of 8 to 12 knots just off the surface. Above the winds
turn toward the east-northeast and build to between 13 and 20
knots through the lowest 6 thousand feet of the air.


The Marianas remain in a rather dry trade-wind regime. The main
forecast problem for the next week will be cloudiness as trade
winds remain gentle to moderate and combined seas fluctuate within
the rather narrow range of 4 to 7 feet. The weak disturbance on
Sunday night and Monday could bring a short period of scattered
showers, that is our best chance for something outside of the
current cookier-cutter mold. Will review again Saturday morning
when we might be able to see something developing on satellite or
perhaps even radar.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A disturbance passing south of Majuro this morning is expected to
progress westward the next couple of days. As it does, it will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms to Kosrae Saturday and Saturday
night, and to Pohnpei Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected the next few days for Kosrae
and Pohnpei, and only isolated showers for Majuro.


.Western Micronesia...
A broad weak circulation centered SSE of Yap near 5N142E is expected
to stay weak as it settles southward toward the equator the next few
days. As is does, conditions will be somewhat unsettled for Yap and
Koror with isolated thunderstorms at times. Have changed the
forecast for Chuuk, where satellite shows scattered showers firing
up, along with isolated thunderstorms, and GFS shows this persisting
a good part of the day. Coverage should go back to isolated tonight,
and Saturday night and Sunday look to be fairly dry with only
isolated showers. But a disturbance moving westward from Majuro
today will reach Chuuk by Monday, with isolated thunderstorms


Marianas Waters...None.


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