Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 271940
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
540 AM ChST Fri Apr 28 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows lots of clouds, showers and isolated thunderstorms
west and northwest of the Marianas, on the eastern fringe of
weakening TD Muifa, centered near 18N134E. Across the Marianas
waters, clouds are diminishing and only isolated showers are present,
with moderate southeast winds and 4-5 ft seas at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
While the latest GFS shows the islands at the edge of scattered
showers today, the ECMWF does not indicate that, and satellite shows
a decreasing trend in clouds and showers. In view of that, have
forecasted only isolated showers and thunderstorms today. The rest of
the forecast is little-changed, with a dry season pattern of trade
winds and isolated showers returning after a few days of wet season
brought to us by TS/TD Muifa out west.

&&

.Marine...
Seas will change little the next few days, with the small northeast
swell fading out by Saturday. No surf or small craft advisories are
expected.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Quiet weather is seen across the area except for some showers and
a few thunderstorms south of 5N in Kosrae and Pohnpei States.
Moderate northeast trades will keep convection pushed to the south,
but a few thunderstorms may venture into Pohnpei or Kosrae waters
this weekend as the zone of trade-wind convergence lifts northward
slightly.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
TD Muifa continues to move farther away from Koror and Yap. Showers
and thunderstorms persist nearby due to the larger-scale convergence
of low-level southwest and southeast winds flowing northward toward
Muifa. Showers are expected to increase at Yap around midday and
linger through tonight before becoming isolated again over the
weekend. Koror will see isolated thunderstorms today and then could
see a thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as surface winds weaken,
allowing for island convection to develop. Gentle northeast to east
trades will return late in the weekend.

Chuuk weather will see little change the next few days with dry,
moderate trades lingering through the weekend. Trade-wind convergence
will bring increased clouds and isolated thunderstorms to the area to
start next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/W. Aydlett



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