Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 050310
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
810 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and a few passing high clouds can be
expected across the region the next few days. Another storm system
will pass to the north late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a slight
dip in temperatures and breezy conditions. Temperatures will rebound
once again towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet Sunday evening across a fairly cloud-free Southwest United
States. Temperatures reached the upper 60s to near 70 today, which is
pretty much typical for early December. Minor adjustments made to
forecast for tonight, based on trends and latest high-res guidance.
Everything points to a calm, cool evening heading into a pleasant
Monday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Visible satellite imagery shows completely clear skies
across southern and central Arizona and southeastern California. A
low pressure system is located in northwest Mexico, Sinaloa state.
This is helping bring cool dry air aloft with a northerly to
northeasterly flow over Arizona. A weak ridge is evident stretching
zonally across southern California through Arizona and New Mexico.
This ridge along with the low will begin to move easterly, out of the
region. Replacing it will be lowering heights from an approaching low
pressure system well to the northwest. Our region will see minimal
effects from this system as it passes to the east. Main effects will
be an increase in high clouds and some enhanced westerly winds. The
only precipitation from this system may be a few very isolated
showers across our higher terrain. The lower deserts should remain
rain free for the week.

By Wednesday a zonal pattern will take over the desert southwest,
indicating fair weather and a slight increase of temperatures---but
still well within normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Light winds (near 5 kt) will dominate through the TAF period showing
usual diurnal patterns (which struggle and are slow to develop during
the winter). No impactful weather expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Light and variable winds through the TAF period with no weather-
related impacts expected.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are likely for
next week. A passing weather system to the north late Tuesday into
Wednesday will bring breezy northerly winds down the Lower Colorado
River Valley on Wednesday. Other days will feature mostly light winds
with occasional afternoon breeziness. Minimum humidities on Tuesday
will range from 30 to 40 percent, but then drop starting Wednesday
with readings down into the teens to 25 percent.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters activation is not expected this week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Iniguez/Waters
AVIATION...Iniguez
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman



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