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000
FXUS65 KPSR 081308
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
605 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER A WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...DEVELOPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE TROF CENTERED NEAR SOUTHWEST CO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY. THE ACCOMPANYING DRY COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. SOME
COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO EASTERN AZ...ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ZONE 24
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SLOWLY DIMINISHING WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHTER
WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UTAH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTH INTO ARIZONA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHTER WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UPPER TROUGHING NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TIGHTEN SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING WINDS WITH MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. SPEEDS
EXPECTED 12 TO 15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH.

NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE THIS EARLY AM PER KPHX
TDWR AND KIWA WEATHER RADARS AND REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS ATTM.
SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO PICK UP MID MORNING...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LLWS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE SPEED THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND FOR KBLH TODAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE 2KFT
LEVEL REMAIN 30 PLUS KTS THIS MORNING...WARRANTING LLWS TO REMAIN IN
THE KBLH THROUGH 08/1500Z OR SO. KBLH DAYTIME WINDS NEARING 20KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 30KTS WILL REMAIN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
HOLDING SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS NEAR 15KTS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR KIPL WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER
SPEEDS...PEAKING NEAR 15KTS AT THEIR BREEZIEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STORM TRACK AND UPPER JET WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
STATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE BRUSHING A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TUESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL STALL OUT OVER ARIZONA...ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS
AND SENDING REINFORCING SHOTS OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY COOL OR
MOIST...SO OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DRY INTO
THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR TO GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE