Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 201621
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1115 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north over the region today. A backdoor cold
front will move southward into the area Thursday evening into
Thursday night. Otherwise, record warm with associated with a strong
upper level high pressure over the region is expected mid to late
week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

...Dense Fog Advisory will be canceled by 1130 AM...

It appears that we will be able to rid the region of the dense fog
in the next our or so, around noon. Conditions are improving from
the south, with clearing now observed as far north as Fort Bragg,
Benson, and Wilson. Temperatures were responding in the SE where late
morning readings were already in the lower 70s. How about the dew
points observed at Goldsboro, Clinton, and Kinston (70 degrees).
This has to be a record for so early in the season to record 70
degree dew points.

Back to the NW in the stable, cool dome of residual Cold Air Damming
(CAD), the low overcast and fog is slowly lifting. Visibility`s were
coming up above the 1/4 mile threshold for the dense fog advisory.
Expect the fog to lift, but stratus to remain for much of the
afternoon, especially in the Piedmont. We will trim back highs into
the lower to mid 60s from Winston to Roxboro, and keep 70s in the
south and east.

It appears that the stratus will lower again tonight, especially
over the Piedmont. Dense fog should not be an issue, but there still
will be some patchy to even widespread fog with visibilities
expected to fall to between 1/2 and 1 1/2 miles from RDU to GSO and
INT overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy with daily record warm lows
in the 57-62 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

High pressure remains anchored in place just off the coast on
Wednesday and this should keep much of the forecast area dry for
most of the day. To the west, a frontal zone with several
disturbances tracking along it will stay along the Appalachians, but
precipitation associated with this feature could impinge upon our
northern and western borders late in the day but will likely remain
west of the area. High temperatures will continue to march higher
with mid 70s to 80 degrees expected throughout the forecast area.
Mild temps once again for overnight lows, near 60 degrees. Another
round of fog/low stratus is possible by early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Unseasonably warm/record temps are again expected on Thursday in
advance of a backdoor cold front propelled by a 1040+ mb surface
high building into the area from the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.
However, the backdoor front should remain to the north/northeast of
central NC during the heat of the afternoon on Thursday. This should
yield high temps generally ranging from the mid 70s north to the
lower 80s south, with a small chance of showers (generally across
northern portions of the area).

The aforementioned backdoor front is expected to slowly shift
southward into the area very late Thursday afternoon/Thursday
evening, along with the potential for some showers across northern
portions of the area.

The cold front is expected to sink southward into the area on
Thursday night, perhaps stalling/loosing steam across southern
portions of the area, with the potential for some light rain/drizzle
on the the cool stable side of the boundary. Thus, expect a large
spread in high temps on Friday across the area, with a high bust
potential on temps. How fast the front lifts back northward as a
warm front on Friday into Friday night is still in question. For
now, expect the a wide range of temps from north to the south across
the area on Friday, with highs near 60 late in the day north to
highs in the mid to upper 70s far south with the potential for some
light rain and drizzle in the brief CAD airmass. Low temps on
Saturday morning will be warm for this time of year, in the 50s.

With the front north of the area by Saturday, warm air will flood
the area for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to
approach the area from the west on Saturday night and move into the
area on Sunday afternoon/evening with increasing chances of some
isolated to scattered showers (though any good dynamics with this
system will lift well to the north of the area with the strong sub-
tropical ridge off the Southeast U.S. allowing the track of the main
surface low to pass well to the north of central NC). Expect highs
in the 70s to near 80 for the weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s.
High temps behind the front early next week still look to be above
normal, generally in the 60s to near 70 with surface high pressure
quickly moving across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

24 Hour TAF period: One half to one quarter mile dense fog continues
across Central NC. A dense fog advisory is in place for all areas
until noon today. Expect fog to remain in place at least through mid
to late morning. Visibilities will improve after that but ceilings
will remain low, coming up to potentially MVFR briefly before
falling back to IFR and lower levels after 00z Wednesday. Winds will
be out of the south southwest today at 5-10 kts with little gusting.

Long term: A warm, moist weather pattern will promote chances for
fog and low stratus the next several mornings. A cold air damming
wedge could bring adverse conditions on Friday. A stronger cold
front will cross the area on Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       75    1939        62     1939
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       74    1922        56     1939
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
02/20       82    2014        60     1939
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH



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