Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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743
FXUS62 KRAH 211034
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then
linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high
pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the
next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

A weak mid/upper level trough/low is slowly sinking south and
eastward across the area this morning, helping to support of few
lingering showers/storms across mainly western portions of the area
(with a few new showers/storms trying to develop across our NE).

The weak mid/upper level trough/low will continue to sink south and
eastward across the area today, helping to support the development
of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms, with
the great threat of showers and storms across southern/southeastern
portions of the area. Temps are expected to be similar to today,
though low level thickness values are expected to be slightly lower
than yesterday. This will yield temps generally a degree or two
lower than yesterday. Expect highs will range from the mid 80s NW to
near 90 across the S/SE.

Convection is expected to wane late evening into the overnight/drift
to the south of the area as the mid/upper trough/low sinks to the
southeast of the area. Expect Low temps will be in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

A large ridge, centered over the Midwest, is expected to extend over
our region Friday and Saturday. With the low level flow from the NNE
and the main front well south, dry weather along with slightly above
normal temperatures can be expected. Lows generally 60-65 north, mid
to upper 60s south. Highs lower to mid 80s north, and mid to upper
80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Obviously, most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC
official track. Currently, models and the NHC suggest a northward
movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks early to mid
week. Plenty of time to watch. For now, dry and seasonably warm
conditions expected for our region under high pressure. Highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical
climatological variability) each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of
patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning
during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest
chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are
expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern
portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough
crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any
mention the the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue late week
through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR
conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...BSD



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