Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 211007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
607 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

An amplifying upper level trough and attendant cold front will track
east across the Carolinas today. A cooler and drier airmass will
advect into the region from the northwest in the wake of the
front tonight and Saturday.


As of 300 AM Friday...

Little moisture advection will occur in advance of the approaching
cold front early this morning given a weak/baggy MSLP gradient and
poor diurnal timing. Though diurnal timing will be more favorable in
the Coastal Plain, theta-e advection remains marginal at best given
weak southerly flow and insufficient time prior to fropa. Strong
height falls /DCVA/ associated with the amplifying upper level
trough progressing across the Carolinas today will generally lag the
attendant cold front. Despite weak thermodynamics, strong upper
level forcing attendant the amplifying upper trough should help
compensate, supporting a potential for light shower activity along
(or more likely) behind the cold front during the mid/late morning
in the Western Piedmont, early/mid afternoon along the Highway 1
corridor (Triangle/Fay) and mid/late afternoon in the Coastal Plain
(along/east of I-95). Highs today will occur relatively early in the
day west of Hwy 1, and by early/mid afternoon east of Hwy 1. In the
east, temperatures should rapidly fall from the 70s to upper 50s,
esp east of Hwy 1. Gusty NW winds may accompany the cold frontal
passage along/easy of Hwy 1 during the afternoon where cold
advection will be augmented/enhanced by evaporative cooling assoc/w
anafrontal /elevated/ precipitation. Expect highs ranging from the
mid/upper 60s in the Triad to mid/upper 70s in the far SE Coastal
Plain. Expect rapid clearing from west-east 3-6 hrs after the cold
frontal passage at any given location, with clear skies and a NW
breeze prevailing Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will be driven
by both cold advection and radiational cooling, ranging from the
low/mid 40s N/NW to mid/upper 40s S/SE. -Vincent


As of 300 AM Friday...

Cool, clear and breezy today due to cold advection in the wake of an
amplifying upper level wave tracking offshore the Carolina/Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight and Saturday. Expect clear skies and a breezy
NW wind with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest NW
Piedmont. Chilly lows sat night in the lower 40s. -Vincent


As of 315 AM Friday...

Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected from Sunday through mid
week. Gradually rising heights as high pressure builds in from the
south will provide us with a short-lived warming trend Sunday and
Monday, with highs warming to the mid and upper 60s Sunday, and
further into the low and mid 70s on Monday.

A reinforcing shot of dry and cooler air is expected as a cold front
moves south and through the area on Monday. This airmass will be
locked into place through the midweek as high pressure builds south
down the Atlantic coast. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be
mostly 65 to 70 after morning lows mostly in the mid 40s.


As of 600 AM Friday...

24-hr TAF Period: IFR/LIFR visbys in fog or low stratus will affect
eastern terminals (FAY/RWI/RDU) through 12-14Z before dissipating.
Shower activity and borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected at all
terminals today as a cold front tracks east across central NC.
Expect the best chance for showers between 12-17Z at the INT/GSO
terminals, 16-21Z at the RDU/FAY terminals, and 17-22Z at the RWI
terminal. Southwesterly winds at ~10 kt will prevail in advance of
the cold front, shifting rapidly to the NW at 10-15 kt sustained
gusting 20-25 knots for 1-3 hours in the wake of the front. Somewhat
stronger winds will be possible at eastern terminals where fropa
timing will better coincide with peak heating.
VFR conditions will rapidly return in the wake of the front,
earliest at INT/GSO (this afternoon) and latest at RWI (this

Looking Ahead: Breezy NW winds will persist into Sat, sustained at
10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt, becoming westerly and weakening
on Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to rule for the remainder of
the weekend and through the majority of next week. -Vincent





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