Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 250229
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DETECTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO FROM GUAYANILLA WESTWARD TO CABO ROJO. LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2. AT THIS MOMENT THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE...MOVING WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR PUERTO RICO HAD BEEN REDUCED
DUE TO THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO
THE WAVE. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY LIMITING EVEN
MORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FRI AFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL REMAIN E-ESE AT
15-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WINDY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED DUE THE INTERACTIONS OF THE LOCAL EFFECTS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STAYED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALSO KNOWN AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #2...CONTINUED THE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THIS MOMENT THE AXIS OF THE
WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO. A
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO THE EAST AXIS OF THE WAVE BEGAN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER OR AT LEAST MOVE CLOSE TO THE CABO
ROJO AREA...WESTERN TIP OF PR.

AL THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR PUERTO RICO HAD
BEEN REDUCED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE...THERE IS STILL A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY BUT THEY COULD REGENERATE
OVER WATERS AND AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DECR THIS EVE BUT TJMZ THE ONLY
TAF SITE WI VERY MUCH CHC OF BLO VFR CONDS THIS AFT. SCT SHRA/TSRA
FRI AFT WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE WI SLGT CHC MVFR. WINDS BLO
FL150 E-ESE 16-30 KT NOW AND EVEN INTO SAT. XPCT SFC WIND TO DIE
OFF IN EVE AND MAY CAUSE LLWS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IT DECREASES.

MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS
WINDY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AC CROSS THE AREA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  20  40  30  30
STT  80  88  80  91 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
     VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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