Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
747
FXCA62 TJSJ 111823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

71/72



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.