Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280233
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. LATEST TJSJ
28/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.34 WHICH IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
SHORT TERM GRIDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
AT LEAST 28/06Z. THEN...COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING
AREA...CREATING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE 28/00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS BETWEEN
FL010-FL150.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...CDFNT ALONG 22N BECOMING FRACTURED BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS BEHIND IT AND INCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT
IN SCT-NMRS SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...CIGS BECMING BKN040 AFTER 03Z SUN IN SHRA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING MON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUN AND MON WITH NE WINDS 15G20KT.

MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT TONIGHT IN NE SWELLS. SWELLS
SUBSIDE MON-WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH 12Z TUE THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  82  72  83 /  30  70  50  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  60  50  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST MONDAY FOR CULEBRA-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.





VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST MONDAY FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.



COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/71







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.