Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 050942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  40  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

05/71



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