Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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418
FXUS66 KSTO 141102
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
302 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with near-record high temperatures early this week.
Wetter and cooler weather expected middle-to-late this week.

&&

.Discussion...
Weather across northern California continues to be dominated by a
strong ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific.
Moisture riding over the top of this ridge is bringing high
cloudiness to the region. The combination of high cloudiness and
drier low-level conditions will keep fog to a minimum in the
Valley this morning.

Very warm weather is expected the next few days as high pressure
builds into the area. Locally breezy north to northeast winds are
also expected to develop later today, and could locally enhance
adiabatic compressional heating. Record high temperatures will be
possible the next few days.

Monday Records:
Redding Airport.....79 set in 2015
Red Bluff...........79 set in 1977
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....76 set in 1977
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............75 set in 1991

Tuesday Records:
Redding Airport.....78 set in 2015
Red Bluff...........77 set in 1957
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....75 set in 2007
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............78 set in 1943

The next low pressure system then takes aim at Northern California
starting Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. At this point,
the heaviest precipitation currently appears to be Wednesday
night. Current model guidance generally suggests about 0.25 to
0.75" of rain across the Valley, with 1 to 2" over the mountains.
Snow levels will likely rapidly fall below pass levels as the
storm passes through, and guidance suggests up to a foot of snow
possible across the peaks.

Dang

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Medium range models remain in pretty good agreement later this
week. Upper trough forecast to shift east Thursday with showers
continuing across interior NorCal, especially over the mountains.
Potential for significant mountain travel impacts with snow
levels 4000-5000 feet. Additional systems possible Thursday night
and later Friday, with main precip chances remaining further
north. Upper ridge forecast to build along the West Coast next
weekend with a return to dry and milder weather.

&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge builds offshore with northwesterly flow aloft. VFR
conditions for interior NorCal next 24 hours except for local MVFR
visibilities possible in the Central Valley south of KSMF until
about 17Z. Northerly surface winds 10-20 kts develop by 20Z and
continue into Monday with areas of gusts 25-30 kts possible thru
about 02Z Monday.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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