Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 032221
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
221 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather through the remainder of the week. The
next wet weather system to impact the area won`t be until middle
to late next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper ridge will build over NorCal through the rest of the week
with dry conditions and warm temperatures. Highs in the valley
will generally be in the upper 60`s/low 70`s...5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Fog will be possible mainly over the northern San
Joaquin valley in the stagnate air-mass under the ridge during
the morning hours for much of the week. We will likely see an
increase in haze also as the week progresses.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through the weekend
into Monday as a blocking ridge remains over California. This system
looks like it will finally give way next week, though the exact timing
is uncertain. The GFS has backed off from the quicker breakdown it
had in earlier runs. It now has a small wave moving in late
Tuesday and early Wednesday, more in line with the ECMWF and the
GEM. If current trends continue, the main trough looks like it will
move in late Wednesday into Thursday, with a diffluent pattern
providing good lift over northern California. GFS ensembles
continue trend towards a decent plume of atmospheric moisture as
well. These could combine to bring a rather wet pattern for mid to
late next week. This would likely start as a relatively mild
system, with high snow levels initially, then potentially
impacting pass levels. Stay tuned to see how this system develops. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Northwest winds gusting up to around 20 kt through 00z. Northeast
winds gusting to around 30 kt across Sierra 06z-18z. Some patches
of morning fog/mist are possible in the northern San Joaquin Valley
13-17z. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




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