Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 060459
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
959 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday. Drier and warmer
weather is then expected next week.

.Discussion...
After an active late afternoon and early evening shower and
thunderstorm activity has diminished greatly. Contemplated
lowering overnight precip chances...but short term models indicate
showers spreading back into the area later tonight. So will leave
scattered showers in the forecast. Current forecast is on track
and no evening update will be made.

.Previous Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms pretty much behaving as expected. Fair
amount of instability around so thunderstorms fairly numerous in
the valley. Most storms have been producing brief heavy rain and
small hail, expected for one cell near Yuba City which dropped
some quarter sized hail. HiRes models indicating activity should
continue into the afternoon and should decrase this evening. NAM
and GFS do continue some activity through the night in southern
portions of the forecast area near Modesto and Stockton which
wouldn`t be a surprise given some instability lingering around and
lift from the upper low.

Friday...overall instability not as impressive as well as shear.
Would expected less organized convection, but still a chance of
some small hail and heavy rain. Models do hint at an organized
wave rotating from east to west over the area Friday morning which
could bring a large area of rain and showers. Have increased pops
for this feature.

Hard to pinpoint detail Saturday as additional energy around the
upper low is likely, but timing unsure. Does appear to be aonther
unsettled day with showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Rasch


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Forecast models are in good agreement to the overall upper level
flow pattern in the long term period with a shortwave trough
feature depicted to push southward out of the Pacific northwest
and skirts through portions of NorCal. This upper level
disturbance will bring some chances for higher mountain showers
and storms for Monday and Wednesday. An upper level ridge will
build into California from the eastern Pacific by Thursday. As a
result of more stable conditions, warm and dry weather will return
to the forecast area.
&&

.AVIATION...

Ofshr upr low W of KSMX movs acrs SoCal Fri with Ely flow alf ovr
fcst area. VFR conds for Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc isold MVFR
poss in shwrs or tstms. SFC wnds genly blo 15 kts exc gsty nr
tstms.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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