Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221907
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Moist easterly low-level convergent flow has initiated a few showers
across north-central Florida this afternoon. Expect scattered
showers to move into the eastern Big Bend later today, and into the
Gulf by this evening. Further to our north, there is a narrow
channel of upper-level forcing for ascent between subsidence over
the MS & TN Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic coast. In this region,
convergent low-level flow between Maria and Jose has also assisted
in the initiation of showers and storms. A few of these may drift
south along our northern GA and AL counties later this evening. By
00-03z, shower should dissipate over land with scattered storms
continuing over the Gulf through the night.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Saturday, the weak mid-level low that has meander around the region
the past few days will tap into moisture preceding Hurricane Maria,
increasing mid-level moisture and rain chances once again across the
region. Lift from this feature along with a more active east coast
sea-breeze will drive convection through the day. POPs will
generally range from 20 to 40% across the northwest half of the CWA,
with 40 to 50% across the southeast half. Shower and storm activity
will migrate offshore Saturday night and will remain confined to
mostly coastal and offshore areas on Sunday. Temperatures will run
near climatology through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 and lows in the low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Drier conditions will be in place at the beginning of the long term
period as the weak upper low mentioned in the short term retrogrades
westward and dampens out. This will allow for high pressure and
drier conditions to build into the region for the end of the
weekend through much of the work week. Moisture will remain
stagnant in the boundary layer, however, so warm, Summerlike
conditions are expected to persist through the week with highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s.
Longer range guidance continues to indicate a shift in the overall
pattern by the end of the month/beginning of October that could
open the door for a front beyond the long term period for those
eagerly awaiting a departure from summerlike conditions.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

A few showers will be possible across the region this afternoon, but
chances of impacting a specific terminal remain too low to include
in the TAF. MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible overnight at ABY,
TLH, and especially VLD. Rain chances will increase late tomorrow
afternoon, outside the current TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds and seas will increase to potentially cautionary
levels this weekend as Hurricane Maria moves northward off of the
east coast. Winds of 15 to 20 knots will be common out of the east
tonight through Sunday evening, with seas generally in the 2 to 3
foot range. Winds and seas will calm next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Aside from locally heavy thunderstorms that could yield a quick 1 to
2 inches of rain, rainfall amounts generally less than 1 inch is
expected this weekend before drier conditions set in next week.
Area river levels continue to trend downward this afternoon, with
this trend expected to continue.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  87  71  87  70 /  10  40  30  30  20
Panama City   74  86  73  84  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
Dothan        69  88  69  86  68 /  10  20  10  30  20
Albany        70  88  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      69  86  68  87  68 /   0  40  10  20  10
Cross City    71  87  70  88  69 /  20  50  20  30  10
Apalachicola  73  86  73  85  73 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Pullin


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