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FXUS62 KTAE 262009
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Weak high pressure at the surface centered to our north will shift
eastward today and tonight with light winds from the east through
the period. Not far to our west, winds from the south are increasing
ahead of a developing cold front that will move across the southeast
later this weekend. Winds begin to veer to the south and then
southwest aloft, returning moisture to the air column over us. Upper
level wind speeds are increasing as well, which is leading to
increased divergence aloft. Upper level cloud cover will continue to
increase from west to east through the period, keeping temperatures
moderated. Highs today will be in the low 60s and overnight lows
will be in the 40s. With high soil moisture from our recent rainfall
and light winds overnight, patchy fog may develop in our eastern
zones where there is less cloud cover aloft.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The deep layer ridging will initially be stubborn to move east and
we backed off a bit on the rain chances for Saturday and Saturday
night. PoPs will be tapered likely northwest to silent 10% southeast
both periods. For Sunday and Sunday night as the cold front enters
our western zones, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms
spreading east impacting the entire CWA. This system certainly is
not as robust as the one earlier in the week with QPF amounts
generally under one inch. Temps will be well above normal through
the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the middle 60s over
SE AL to the middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend. Highs on Sunday
will be in the mid to upper 70s across the entire region with lows
Saturday night in the mid 50s.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Rain chances will end from west to east on Monday as the cold front
pushes through. Then, we should see dry weather with seasonal
temperatures at least through Wednesday before rain begins to spread
into the local region ahead of the next developing low pressure
system on New Year`s day and Friday. With increasing cloud cover and
a continuation of offshore flow, temps will be below seasonal levels
Thursday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Veering flow
ahead of the cold front on Friday will bring temps back to near
normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, although some guidance is hinting at brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
at our eastern terminals overnight, most likely at VLD. Winds will
be light and easterly.

&&

.Marine...

With fairly weak high pressure ridging initially centered off to our
east, generally light to moderate onshore flow with low seas will
dominate the coastal waters for the first half of the upcoming week.
Beyond this current forecast, however, a significant tightening of
the pressure pattern may occur by the middle and end of next week,
which may cause some sharp rises in winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Recent heavy rainfall in combination with a disturbed pattern in the
forecast will wash out fire weather concerns through the period. Low
mixing heights and transport winds will result in very low
dispersion indices on Saturday. Dispersion will increase substantially
for Sunday as both mixing heights and transport winds increase.

&&

.Hydrology...

Primary focus over the next 48 hours will be monitoring the flood
wave moving through the Ochlockonee River as well as the crest
moving through the Withlacoochee System.

In the Ochlockonee River, the crest wave is in between Thomasville
and Concord with Concord likely to crest in the next 18 hours about
1.5 feet below major flood stage. Downstream at the Havana gauge, a
crest just below major flood stage is anticipated.
Due to increased inflows into Lake Talquin, operations there will
require additional releases at the dam which will result in flood
stages being approached again at Bloxham and at Smith Creek.

For the Withlacoochee System, around 20kcfs is working its way down
the Little River, which will result in high end minor flooding
around Hahira and downstream near the confluence with the
Withlacoochee. Elevated flows from the Withlacoochee will result in
moderate flooding below Valdosta at the US-84 gauge. Further
downstream, the Withlacoochee will continue to rise at Pinetta, but
should remain in the action stage category.

Elsewhere across the region, the Choctawhatchee River will crest
later tonight at Caryville with rises on Bruce to continue into
early next week, all in the minor flood category.

The next storm system looks to deliver up to 1 inch of rain on
Sunday night into Monday. This shouldn`t have significant impacts on
area rivers, aside from slowing the rate of recession briefly.

For the most up to date information, please visit:
http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  71  55  77  60 /   0  10  10  20  40
Panama City   50  69  59  76  61 /  10  30  10  20  40
Dothan        43  65  56  76  56 /   0  50  50  40  50
Albany        41  68  53  77  58 /   0  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      44  70  56  77  61 /   0  10  10  10  30
Cross City    47  76  57  79  61 /   0  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  52  67  59  73  63 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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