Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 212352
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
652 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Rain is expected to continue from the evening hours throughout the
night as a cold front passes through the area. Visibility will
decrease and cloud ceilings will lower during these showers. Once
the front and rains pass, the ceilings will begin to raise and
visibility will return to more favorable flight conditions late in
the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [224 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The closed low at 500 mb currently centered over Louisiana will
slide southeastward overnight and is expected to be centered south
of Mobile by dawn. Ahead of it, a large area of rain is likely to
continue to overspread the region from west to east as deep layer
moisture is advected northward with southerly flow. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to be across the Florida panhandle and
southeast Alabama where 1 to 3 inches is expected. Progressively
lighter amounts are expected farther to the east, tapering down to
just a quarter to half inch around Valdosta. Instability is expected
to be limited, so the chance of thunderstorms appears to be confined
to offshore during the overnight hours, although an isolated
thunderstorm is possible across the panhandle during the remainder
of this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper low will be moving over our just south of the forecast
area during the day on Wednesday. This will focus the best forcing
across the eastern portions of the region by daybreak and then
shifting out of the area by afternoon. One last piece of energy
moving by on Wednesday evening could lead to a few scattered
showers across the area.

By Thursday morning, heights begin to rise as the upper low moves
into the Western Atlantic and heads away from Florida. Low level
wrap around moisture in the eastern areas will lead to some early
morning cloudiness, but by afternoon skies should at least be
partly cloudy with temperatures warming through the mid to upper
70s. With little in the way of an airmass change with this system,
do not expect temperatures overnight to change much through the
period, generally in the upper 50s to near 60.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
A fairly low impact long term period is expected. The primary
impact will be a cold front that approaches the region on
Saturday. At this time, available model guidance keeps nearly all
of the forcing in the northern stream, thus any precip in our
region is unlikely with the frontal passage on Saturday afternoon.
However, this front will deliver a noticeable change in airmass
with a return to chilly temperatures for Sunday, with low
temperatures in the morning possibly dipping into the upper 30s,
depending on the positioning of the surface high pressure area
behind the front. Temperatures will also be slow to warm on Sunday
with highs likely only near 70 degrees.

By Monday, a warming trend will begin that will last through the
end of the period with mostly sunny skies and temperatures
warming 5-9 degrees above normal, with highs in the mid to upper
70s.


.MARINE...
Mainly east to northeast winds less than 15 knots are expected
through at least Thursday. Thereafter, winds will decrease
on Friday. On Saturday afternoon, winds will quickly increase
behind a dry cold front. A period of advisory conditions are
possible Saturday night before the rough conditions rapidly
subside on Sunday.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rains will continue to move from west to east across the Tri-
State region this afternoon and tonight. Area-wide rainfall will
continue through Wednesday night then taper off for Thursday. No
fire weather concerns are expected.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amount of 1 to 3 inches will cause some rises on area
rivers across the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama. However,
flooding is not currently expected other than the potential for
isolated instances of minor flooding in poor drainage areas. The one
river point to watch more closely overnight will be the Shoal River
at Mossy Head. If the heaviest rainfall falls over that basin, then
that river point could reach action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  75  60  81  58 /  90  70  40  10   0
Panama City   61  71  60  75  61 / 100  60  20  10   0
Dothan        59  74  58  78  57 / 100  50  20  10   0
Albany        61  76  58  79  57 /  90  60  20  10   0
Valdosta      61  76  60  80  58 /  60  70  40  20   0
Cross City    62  75  61  79  59 /  50  90  50  30   0
Apalachicola  61  70  61  76  61 / 100  80  40  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Scholl/Wugofski
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD


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