Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 071359
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Deep layer ridging to our northwest has finally won the battle
with departing low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast. The low
clouds that have lingered for days are long gone. Expect a mostly
sunny day today with high temperatures actually rising to above
normal levels, if only by a degree. That translates to lower 80s
north and mid 80s south. Enjoy!
Northeast winds this morning will become variable in the afternoon
and then more easterly on Thursday. Wind speeds will remain below
cautionary levels. The only modification to the forecast this
morning was to lower max seas from 3 to 3 ft based on buoy obs.
.Prev Discussion [628 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
CWA is on the eastern periphery a weak upper ridge Wednesday
night with another clear and dry night expected. By Friday though,
the upper level flow becomes more zonal ahead of a cold front that
will affect the area in the long term. As this change occurs,
better moisture is pushed northward into the CWA with the models
trying to show the chance for precipitation increasing across the
southeast portion of the CWA. Based on this, have shown little in
terms of PoPs until Friday. Even then, limited the mention to
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
High temperatures will warm slightly into the short term with
highs mainly in the mid 80s. In addition, there is a warming trend
with the low temperatures between tonight and Thursday night with
upper 50s to 60s tonight and mid 60s to lower 70s tomorrow night.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave digs into the Southeast on Saturday and pushes a cold
front through the CWA. Models have trended a little bit wetter in
terms of precipitation across the eastern portion of the CWA. This
doesn`t amount to much in terms of PoPs though - have continued
the slight chance for much of the CWA on Saturday, but with the
wetter trend, have included a sliver of chance PoPs across the far
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with developing a closed
upper low from the trough over the Georgia/Carolina coast by
Sunday. There are some differences in placement of the upper low.
ECMWF is further south and east near the Georgia/FL border and
would suggest precip a little further west than the GFS that is
further north along the Carolina coast and keeps precip mainly
offshore. Forecast wise, have trended with the GFS with no mention
of PoPs Sunday onward.
[Through 12Z Thursday] Aside from brief IFR conditions this morning
at VLD, VFR conditions will prevail with light northeasterly
Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
The river level on the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will
continue to decrease over the next few days. The river should fall
below action stage on Friday morning.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 61 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 83 65 83 69 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 83 60 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 83 58 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 83 61 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 85 65 86 69 85 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 81 68 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 10 10