Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190527
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1227 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Smoke from an afternoon prescribed burn is causing LIFR
visibilities at TLH this morning. Expect these conditions to
linger through the night. Otherwise, VFR should prevail at
remaining terminals under mostly clear skies, with light winds,
through the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [717 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Another very cold night is on tap as the surface high settles over
the region, allowing for clear skies, light winds, and excellent
conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely be more
varied tonight and more highly dependent on location. Rural, low-
lying, and sheltered areas will likely reach 20 degrees across
Florida and SE Alabama. Therefore, have opted for a Hard Freeze
Warning for portions of the CWA.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will dominated the low levels this weekend, with a cut
off upper level low traversing the northern Gulf coastline. This low
will increase upper level cloudiness Friday night through Saturday
night, but will otherwise have little to no impact on the forecast.
Temperatures will gradually start to warm up. Expect highs in the
50s Friday and low to mid 60s on Saturday. Minimum temperatures will
still drop into the low 30s Friday night, but will only dip to upper
30s to low 40s on Saturday night.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will swing into the central Plains on
Sunday evening, helping develop a frontal that will race through the
Mississippi Valley and southeast Monday to Monday night. The front
will then lift northeastward on Tuesday, with the southern tail of
it decaying as it passes just west of our area. This front will
bring the area around an inch or less of rainfall, but with little
to no instability to work with, thunderstorms appear unlikely with
this system. Temperatures in the wake of the front will be slightly
warm for this time of year, with highs in the 60s and lows in the
40s.


.MARINE...

Light winds from the north will become easterly Friday night then
southerly early next week as the ridge of high pressure shifts
eastward. Wind speeds will increase late Monday night in the wake of
a front and will approach cautionary if not advisory conditions.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate to severe drought conditions persist across most of our
area. With an inch of rain or less expected Monday through Monday
night, rivers will remain well below flood stage for the next
several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   58  32  63  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  38  61  43  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  32  60  38  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  31  60  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  32  62  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  32  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  55  38  60  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Clay-Early-
     Quitman-Randolph.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Barry



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