Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 290758
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall in the mid to upper level zonal flow on Monday where
it will remain at least through Tuesday. Then, the upper level
pattern will become highly amplified from mid to late week as a
sharp ridge develops out west and a deep trough digs east of the
Plains. This will send the front and most of the accompanying
moisture well to our south and east as bring another cold front
(dry) down from the north late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances
will continue at least through Wednesday with drier conditions by
the end of the week. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s
Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.
[Through 06z Saturday] Areas of fog and low ceilings will prevail
through the mid-morning hours with conditions down to LIFR expected
at times. VFR conditions are expected to return later this morning.
Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.
There are no river concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 67 90 67 87 / 20 10 10 10 30
Panama City 80 69 83 70 82 / 10 0 0 10 30
Dothan 87 67 88 67 86 / 20 10 10 10 40
Albany 88 67 90 67 87 / 10 10 20 20 40
Valdosta 89 68 91 67 89 / 20 10 20 20 40
Cross City 88 66 91 67 87 / 20 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 82 69 82 70 81 / 10 0 0 10 20