Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 291518
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1118 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Compared to 24 hours ago, dewpoints this morning are generally
running about 1-3 degrees higher. This continues the trend of
gradually increasing boundary layer moisture over the past several
days, and should prevent the surface dewpoints from mixing down as
low as they have been yesterday or the day before (upper 60s in
some areas). Pivoting to temperatures, we are expecting largely
similar highs to yesterday outside of any earlier initiating
convection. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding was warmer in the
boundary layer as compared to yesterday, but nearly identical to
the 00Z sounding from yesterday evening other than a shallow
near-surface inversion. Temperatures should really increase
between 15-17Z with only a marginal drop in dewpoints. We are
expecting this to yield some high heat indices in the 110-112
degree range over fairly broad areas, squarely within the Heat
Advisory criteria. Therefore, the existing advisory was continued.
Some locations in Gulf, Franklin, southern Liberty, Wakulla, and
even Leon County (outside of the central city of Tallahassee) may
approach Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 114 degree heat
indices. However, given uncertainties regarding some approaching
mid-level cloud decks, and the possibility of convection as early
as 16-17Z, we just maintained an advisory for now. The start time
of the advisory was moved up to 15Z with some locations already
reporting heat indices as high as 105 degrees.

We still expect fairly widespread convective activity today across
the area, and the rain chances in this update are very similar to
the previous forecast. Initial development, and the highest PoPs,
are expected to be near the Florida Big Bend coastline, extending
up the Interstate-75 corridor near a weak and subtle surface
pressure trough. This activity should then expand through the
afternoon into the rest of the area. Precipitable water values
around 2 inches and a freezing level of over 17,000 feet on the
12Z Tallahassee sounding suggest any showers and storms today
could be efficient rain producers. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Strong instability and K index readings over 40, in
concert with the high PWATs, typically suggest that storms could
produce frequent lightning and that wording was kept in the
forecast. Finally, the strong instability and stronger NE flow
around 250-200mb could support some more organized storms today
with some isolated severe weather possible (mainly in the form of
damaging wind gusts).

&&

.Prev Discussion [343 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.


.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  80  30  50  30  60
Panama City   91  80  88  79  87 /  60  20  50  30  50
Dothan        98  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        98  76  93  76  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  80  60  50  30  60
Cross City    92  77  89  76  89 /  70  70  50  30  60
Apalachicola  94  79  88  79  88 /  50  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT


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