Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 230705
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
As mentioned in the aviation discussion below, a large area of low
clouds (which was very well progged by the HRRR Hi-Res guidance) is
currently developing and moving SW across the CWA. These low
ceilings are expected to prove quite difficult to lift and break out
later this morning and early afternoon, especially further off to
the north and east. Eventually, skies should become partly sunny
across the entire region for the mid to late afternoon hours, but
the combination of these clouds, the cooler air behind the cold
frontal passage, and the fairly gusty NE winds will all serve to
create a truly fall like day over the area. High temps will be
several degrees below normal for a change, with afternoon maximums
only 80 to 85 degrees today. Also, with the cold frontal boundary
now stalled to our south and east, the best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters and the SE FL
Big Bend. PoPs over the interior will be 10% or less for almost 3/4
of the region today, but over the eastern 1/4 they will range from
20% to the east of Tallahassee and extending NE into south central
GA, with the 30-40% PoPs generally confined to the SE Big Bend. Even
here, rainfall amounts should be on the light side.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A weak cut off low aloft with a decaying vorticity anomaly will keep
the cold front stationary across our forecast area tonight. The
highest chances for thunderstorms tonight will be over the water,
with slight chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms Wednesday through
Thursday over the Gulf waters and in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be cool behind the front, from
around 60 in our northernmost counties to mid to upper 60s along the
immediate coastline. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The beginning of the extended period will feature a relatively
weak flow pattern aloft across the deep south, with the area
situated between ridges over the Rockies and western Atlantic.
At the surface, northeasterly flow will continue with high
pressure parked over New England and a trough of low pressure
along the eastern seaboard. The northeasterly flow should keep
most of the deeper moisture and showers confined to northeast
Florida. However, isolated activity may reach the far eastern Big
Bend from time to time.
Deeper moisture is forecast to return over the weekend as a trough
deepens over the central states. This should lead to increased
rain chances across the forecast area for Saturday into Monday.
[Through 12Z Wednesday] With a large area of wrap around low
cloudiness developing to our NE and moving to the SW, went a bit
more pessimistic on the Tafs for the overnight hours this package.
Expect conditions to deteriorate from NE to SW, with prevailing MVFR
Cigs expected at all of the terminals along with a period of IFR
level Cigs at ABY and VLD. Furthermore, these low ceilings will be
tough to lift and break out this morning, with the MVFR conditions
possibly lingering into the early afternoon hours at ABY and VLD.
However, the best chances for rain will be across far eastern
portions of the CWA today, but with PoPs only 20% at VLD and lower
elsewhere, no mention of them in the Tafs is needed at this time.
Finally, gusty NE winds can be expected at all of the terminals from
the late morning hours to around sunset this evening.
East-northeast winds will rise to advisory levels tonight over much
of our coastal waters and will likely remain elevated until
Thursday. After Thursday, cautionary winds will likely remain in
place over the coastal waters into the early weekend. Seas will peak
Wednesday around 5 to 6 feet over the offshore waters.
Moisture levels will remain fairly high over the next several days
which will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any
fire weather concerns.
Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be around 0.75-1"
in the eastern Big Bend, 0.75" or less over the rest of the area.
These totals will not cause our rivers to rise into flood stage.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 84 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 84 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 81 60 83 63 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 81 61 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 83 63 83 64 84 / 30 10 10 10 20
Cross City 83 67 86 67 86 / 40 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 84 69 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 20 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.