Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 101923
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Fairly widespread convection is ongoing early this afternoon.
However, most of the activity is remaining well below severe
limits. Expect showers and thunderstorms to spread northward
through the afternoon, with additional storms approaching the
Panhandle counties from the west late in the afternoon. Activity
should diminish from south to north with sunset. However, with the
broad trough in place over the region, an isolated storm or two
cannot be ruled out into the overnight hours.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
A seasonably active period is expected for Friday with weak upper
level troughing in place and plenty of deep layer moisture. High
PoPs are forecast over much of the area due to the combination of
the above factors plus the sea breeze boundary. As is typical for
summer, a few storms could be on the strong to marginally severe
side in the afternoon. For Saturday, the weak upper troughing
weakens even more, but deep moisture and light southerly flow is
expected to yield another day of fairly high PoPs across the area
with a few strong to marginally severe afternoon storms remaining
possible. Temperatures will be seasonal.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
At the beginning of the period, the local area will be dominated
by seasonal upper level ridging and weak deep layer flow with
afternoon convection driven mainly by the sea breeze. The pattern
will gradually transition through the week as a deep upper level
trough for July standards stretches from the Great Lakes to the
central plains by Wednesday. This will drive a surface cold front
rather far to the south for July into our area by the middle to
latter part of the week. This pattern would favor a greater than
average chance of thunderstorms for the middle and latter part of
the week. Temperatures will be seasonal.
[Through 18Z Friday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact all
terminals through the afternoon hours. Conditions should improve
this evening, with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. However,
some brief MVFR cigs/vsby cannot be ruled out around sunrise.
Another active day of showers and thunderstorms is expected for
Light winds and calm seas will prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the next several days.
No Red Flag conditions are expected over the next several days.
Though rain chances will be rather high to finish the week, most
rivers are holding steady at levels well below flood stage with
several in low flow. The expected 1 to 2 inch average rainfall
amounts over the next several days will not be significant enough
to push any rivers into flood stage.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 92 72 93 72 / 30 60 20 60 20
Panama City 75 88 75 90 76 / 30 50 20 40 20
Dothan 72 93 72 93 73 / 40 50 20 50 20
Albany 72 93 72 93 73 / 40 50 40 60 20
Valdosta 70 93 71 93 71 / 30 60 40 60 20
Cross City 71 92 71 93 71 / 30 50 40 50 20
Apalachicola 74 89 73 89 74 / 40 50 20 40 20