Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
721 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

21Z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across the
Tennessee valley and lower Mississippi valley. The latest surface
observations show that this front is racing quickly southeastward.
The latest guidance from our convection allowing models (CAM)
shows the front beginning to move into southeast Alabama around
10 PM ET/ 9 PM CT. Updated the PoP and weather grids to reflect
the timing from the latest CAM guidance, but otherwise no changes
to the forecast were necessary.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

A thin line of storms associated with a cold front will move
through the area tonight. These storms are expected to briefly
bring some MVFR cigs with them, along with gusty winds from the
west. Expect strong northwest winds starting Sunday morning
behind the front.



.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A cool and dry airmass will pour into the region on Sunday in the
wake of the cold front. Expect highs to reach into the lower to
mid 60s for most locations. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by
Monday morning as the surface high slides just north of the area.
May see some patchy frost, especially in SE Alabama and SW Georgia
where the boundary layer is most likely to decouple. The airmass
will begin to modify by Monday afternoon as a shortwave ridge
moves east along the Gulf Coast. Expect highs in the mid to upper
60s Monday afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Guidance is still have significant issues handling the pattern
evolution by mid to late week. There is good agreement that the
upper trough will become re-established over the eastern Conus by
mid week, with deep moisture spreading back over the area.
However, the evolution of the main embedded shortwave remains
tricky. Models have oscillated between focusing the main surface
cyclogenesis over the Eastern Gulf and Florida East Coast. The
eastern solutions will produce less rain over the area for
Wednesday and Thursday versus the western solutions. With little
model-to-model or run-to-run consistency, will continue to go with
a general blend of the guidance, keeping scattered showers in the
forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday. In either scenario,
temperatures (especially high temperatures) will likely be below
normal with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s.

Northwesterly winds will increase rapidly by from west to east
overnight in the wake of a cold front. Expect to see Small Craft
Advisory conditions through much of Sunday. Winds and seas will
subside through early next week as high pressure builds in.
However, strong winds may return by mid to late week.

Drier, breezier conditions are expected to move in Sunday in the wake
of a cold front. However, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
expected for the next several days.

No hydro concerns.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   54  65  36  67  49 /  40  20   0   0  10
Panama City   55  64  40  65  53 /  40  10   0   0  20
Dothan        49  62  34  63  46 /  40  10   0   0  10
Albany        51  62  35  63  46 /  40  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      55  64  35  66  49 /  40  20   0   0  10
Cross City    57  70  36  70  52 /  40  40   0   0  10
Apalachicola  56  67  40  65  54 /  40  20   0   0  20


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Nguyen
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