Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 220455
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1255 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
VFR through the period with northwest surface winds. A few gusts
tomorrow afternoon with speeds 15-18 knots.
.PREV DISCUSSION [833 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The first strong cold front of the season passed through our
forecast area today. We`re seeing the usual discrepancy, albeit
small, in the NWP guidance between the warmer raw model output
and cooler MOS. MOS is often too warm as the PBL winds do not go
calm immediately after a cold front passage. This turbulent mixing
offsets the cooling from advection and radiation. Leaning more
toward the warmer guidance still gives us low temperatures of
around 50 in FL, and mid to upper 40s in south GA and AL.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
In the upper levels, a deep trough will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard on Saturday and slowly move out to sea by Sunday. An upper
level ridge will remain over The Great Plains. At the Surface, high
pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. throughout the forecast
period. Expect clear skies and POPs near zero. Cool, dry air will
remain in place and highs will be in the mid 70s on Saturday and
upper 70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
High pressure begins to build across the mid-Atlantic states
allowing deep layer ridging to dominate for the first half of the
week. On Thursday, a deep trough may lead to an increase in rain
chances. However, the dry air mass over land seems to keep precip
offshore but it is too far out to be certain. The colder temps over
the weekend begin to warm up due to easterly flow from the sfc high
increasing the cloud cover over the region. Expect temps to return
to climo with highs in low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s.
Advisory conditions are expected tonight. Strong northerly winds
will continue until Saturday afternoon. Then expect moderate winds
through Sunday afternoon when winds will become light.
Dry air will be in place across the region Saturday, yielding RH
values below critical thresholds region wide. RH`s in the low to mid
20s are expected Saturday afternoon, with high dispersion values
expected across the entire region. However, winds are expected to be
weaker, peaking around 10 mph from the north with ERC values
currently forecast to remain below the critical threshold to meet
red flag criteria for duration.
Dry weather will continue for the next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 42 80 41 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 48 77 50 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 41 81 44 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 41 80 43 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 41 79 43 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 40 79 43 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 76 50 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.