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FXUS62 KTAE 081448
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...Gusty Winds Expected This Afternoon...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The main concern for today is the chance for gusty winds this
afternoon. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes southward
to Louisiana and will push rapidly eastward today. There is not
much moisture return ahead of it, so only a few scattered light
showers are expected this afternoon across the area with most
places remaining dry. However, it is a fairly vigorous front with
gusty winds expected this afternoon behind it. The question is how
gusty will the winds be? Looking at some forecast sounding in
BUFKIT for this afternoon, the models are forecasting unusually
deep mixing heights for this time of year around 7000 ft with very
steep low level lapse rates. As an example, the 13z HRRR is
forecasting the 0-3 km lapse rate to be 9.0 C/km at Dothan at 20z
and 8.9 C/km at Albany. This is a very favorable pattern for
mixing down strong wind gusts to the surface. The momentum
transfer tool in BUFKIT is indicating the potential for gusts to
peak near 40 mph from mid to late afternoon across a large portion
of the area, which happens to be our local wind advisory criteria.
As a result, the wind advisory has been expanded to include a
larger part of the area for this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail today, but winds
will be gusty this afternoon with frequent gusts around 25 knots
and peak gusts near 35 knots possible. Winds will diminish
around sunset.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley will amplify as
it moves east and promises a chilly stretch of weather for the
eastern Gulf Coast. A cold front will push east of the area this
evening, but any light showers associated with it should move
southeast of the area early in the evening. Some parts of the area
north of a line from Crestview to Dothan to Albany could see a
brief light freeze by dawn. Since the required 2-hr durations are
questionable and we have seen many freezes already this winter, we
will hold off on any watch or warning product. Winds will remain
around 10 mph through the night with wind chill readings dropping
into the upper 20s in FL to the lower 20s north of the state line.
This does not quite meet wind advisory criteria. A widespread
freeze looks more likely for Tuesday night so look for future
watches or warnings for that period. We could even flirt with wind
chill advisory criteria (20 degrees or less) by daybreak across
our northern zones. Daytime temperatures will also be chilly with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and in the lower to mid
50s south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A mean long wave trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much
of this period, so we are not looking for any big warm ups.
Another widespread freeze is expected Wednesday night. The trough
will deamplify a bit and with surface high pressure moving east of
the area, we should stay above freezing Thursday night with
daytime highs on Friday close to normal in the 60s. A clipper
system will then bring another cold front through the area Friday
evening, but temperatures will only drop off slightly behind it
for the weekend.


.Marine...
Winds will quickly increase today ahead of a cold front and then
remain elevated behind the front into Tuesday. It still appears
that frequent gale-force gusts are likely with sustained gales
possible from late in the day today through the overnight. Gale
warnings are now in effect for the entire marine area. While gales
will no longer be expected past Tuesday evening, small craft
advisory conditions could persist into Wednesday night. Much lower
winds and seas are then expected on Thursday as high pressure
moves over the waters.


.Fire Weather...
High dispersions will continue through Tuesday due to strong winds.
Dry air will remain in place for the next several days. On Monday
RH values will be in the 30s. Red Flag Warning criteria will not
be met.


.Hydrology...
Many rivers are high or in flood stage at this time. Most area
rivers are currently steady or falling. No significant rainfall is
expected through the next week.

On the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville has crested and is slowly
falling. Near Bruce, the river is in moderate flood and is
expected to crest at 15.5 feet late tonight.

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is falling
slowly, but will remain in flood stage all week.

A warning has been issued for the Ochlockonee River at Concord as
it continues to rise. It is forecast to crest at 26.0 feet by this
morning.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crested and is falling.
Further downstream the Withlacoochee is still rising.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  34  53  30  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  40  51  38  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  31  48  29  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        58  31  48  27  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  34  51  29  52 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    64  37  55  31  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  40  54  38  55 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening FOR Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening
     FOR Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM EST Tuesday FOR Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT


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