Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 031929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT. ANY CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ALONG WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OR SOUTH
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE ADDED INSTABILITY AND ACCOMPANYING
RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BACK TO THE TRI-STATE REGION. AS USUAL, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE GFS SHOWS A DECENT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AND THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORKS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
OUR POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50-60% FOR ALL BUT
THE SE BIG BEND(40%). FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC FOR SATURDAY
EVENING SHOWING ONLY 20-30% POP AND THEN A GOOD CHANCE (50%) FOR
MOST ZONES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S MOST INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY ALLOWING A NARROW
RIDGE TO EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TEXAS. THE
BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT BUT MOSTLY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WE SEE WARMER TEMPS AND BELOW SEASONAL POPS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AROUND KDHN AND KABY...LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS AT LEAST TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT ONSHORE ALONG WITH LOW SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A DRIER DAY TODAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE SO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  71  92  73 /  10  50  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   79  88  75  86  76 /  10  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        74  91  71  89  72 /  20  60  30  50  40
ALBANY        73  90  70  90  71 /  20  60  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      72  95  72  93  72 /  10  50  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    74  92  72  91  73 /  10  40  20  50  30
APALACHICOLA  78  89  75  89  76 /  10  30  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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