Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - BROAD SCALE TROUGHING DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CONUS..WITH AN
AXIS FROM THE MANITOBA-ONTARIO BORDER TO THE TX BIG BEND AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REGION...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
THAT SPRAWLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES RIDGED ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE COVERS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WIND DOWN AS THE SHOWERS SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. MEANWHILE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO GULF
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ON THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS NORTH FL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. THE GREAT THREATS WILL BE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TIMING GENERALLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THERE IN THE AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TURN TIMING ALSO...TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES RANGE. SOME LOCALIZE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH ACROSS LEVY COUNTY TO SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH
FROM FRI MOORING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND NE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
STATE SAT WITH DECEASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN SLOW CLEARING OF THE
CLOUDS AND LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE PUSHING EAST ON MONDAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND 500 MB DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE THWARTED BY A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT TO END THE EXTENDED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
DRASTIC CHANGES BETWEEN AIR MASSES. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY THE WARMING
GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WITH VCNTY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THEN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
LATE NIGHT WITH VCNTY SHRA FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN EASTERLY SURGE THIS EVENING WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NE GULF
FRI VEER INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WEST AND NW LATE FRI
NIGHT OR EARLY SAT ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS WINDS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
BUT RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  30  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  30  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  20  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  30  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  30  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AVIATION...69/CLOSE







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