Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231744
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1244 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers will continue to drift through the region
this afternoon. Will keep VCSH at the northern terminals and
VCTS at the southern terminals (PGD/FMY/RSW) through 21Z,
then VCSH through 03Z-06Z. Some brief periods of MVFR or IFR
will be possible through 03Z with passing showers and
storms. Some gusty winds near 20 knots will be possible this
afternoon, then decreasing to 10 knots or less overnight. No
other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 927 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017/

UPDATE...
It`s starting out to be a cloudy and wet Thanksgiving across west
central and southwest Florida. The warm front extends across
northern Florida with the main low just off the Nature Coast.
Several storms in the vicinity of the low center and along the cold
front farther south are moving northeast toward the west coast of
Florida. Some water spouts have been showing up on radar this
morning over the coastal waters and we will continue to keep a close
eye on these storms as they approach land. High resolution model
guidance shows the showers and storms continuing to push northeast
through early this evening. With all the cloudiness and rain, temps
will be well below average today. Current forecast looks good for
now so not update needed at this time.

AVIATION...
Scattered showers will continue to drift northeast through the
morning, with increasing chances of MVFR ceilings and visibilities,
or perhaps some occasional IFR. Rain and thunderstorms chances will
increase through the rest of the day and into Thursday night, with
MVFR ceilings possible at just about any time.

MARINE...
An area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf will stretch northeast
through the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The low will also cause winds to
increase to cautionary levels over the Gulf waters, mainly from
around the Tampa Bay north. Wind speeds will gradually subside
through the day on Friday, as high pressure builds in from the north
and rain chances clear out. High pressure will hold north of the
area through the weekend and into early next week, with winds and
seas expected to remain below headline criteria.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  72  61  73 /  50  40  10  10
FMY  67  77  63  76 /  60  40  10   0
GIF  64  73  58  74 /  50  50  10   0
SRQ  65  73  60  72 /  50  40  10   0
BKV  61  70  54  73 /  50  50  10   0
SPG  64  72  61  73 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin


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