Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 172000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
Mid/upper ridging will remain over Florida with the surface ridge
settling across the Florida peninsula. This pattern will cause low
level winds to weaken and become rather light allowing the west coast
sea breeze to develop and move well inland Wednesday afternoon and
early evening. Moisture will continue to be limited to mainly the
low levels so the scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus will
persist with little if any chance of rain. Late tonight into early
Wednesday morning some patchy fog could develop, especially from
around the Interstate 4 corridor northward. Temperatures will remain
well above normal. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s with daytime highs on Wednesday from the lower to mid 70s close
to the coast, thanks to the shift to onshore with the sea breeze, to
the lower 80s inland.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...
A mid/upper-level ridge will hold over the region through Saturday
as a series of shortwaves pass by to our north. At the surface, a
weak frontal boundary will stall across northern Florida Wednesday
night into Thursday, with another boundary moving through the
southeast Friday into Saturday. As the upper level energy quickly
lifts northeast, neither of these boundaries will pass fully through
the peninsula, although we will have a chance for rain Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures through the first half of the weekend will
remain well above normal.

For Sunday, a deeper trough will shift eastward with its axis
extending into the central Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low moves
into the southeast. Global models are still in agreement in showing
a cold front moving through the peninsula Sunday night into Monday,
with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Some strong thunderstorms will be possible and, as usual, the
forecast will continue to be refined in the coming days. High
pressure will build into the area behind the front for late Monday
into Tuesday, although temperatures will only fall back closer to
normal values.


General VFR conditions are expected at area terminals into early
tonight with more scattered to broken stratocumulus expected at or
above 4KFT. The potential for a period of MVFR/IFR BR after 08Z
exists, but mainly at KLAL/KPGD. Southeast flow will shift to
southwest at coastal terminals this afternoon. Winds will become
light and variable with sunset this evening and then return at 6 to
9 knots out of the southeast to south Wednesday morning.


High pressure will slide south over the region today and remain in
place through Thursday. Winds will remain generally below 15 knots
with low seas. Expect winds to become onshore near the coast each of
the next couple afternoons as the sea breeze develops. Southerly flow
will increase over the weekend as a storm system approaches from the


No significant fire weather concerns are expected for the next
several days. Relative humidity will remain well above critical
levels and winds will be generally light. Any fire activities near
the coast for the next few days will need to take into consideration
the development of an afternoon sea breeze which will shift winds to
southwest to west. The next significant potential for any wetting
rainfall does not arrive until late Friday...or this upcoming
weekend. Patchy fog is expected after midnight the next couple of
nights...however no widespread dense fog is anticipated.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  63  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  61  80  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  61  82  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  75  59  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  57  79  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  63  75  63  75 /   0   0   0   0


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.