Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 231848
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RIDE
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY TOMORROW AS MORE ZONAL EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH HELPING
TO KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR TOMORROW ARE SHOWING PWATS AGAIN HOVERING NEAR THE 2 INCH
RANGE. SIMILAR TO TODAY...DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE BUT
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND TOWARDS HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SPREAD IN NATURE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING IN OUR PEAK HEATING HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AS THE AREA BECOMES DOMINATED BY DEEPER EASTERLY
FLOW EXPECT SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A DECENT PUSH FROM THE
EAST WILL LIMIT THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATION ALONG THE WEST COAST.
BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I 4 CORRIDOR
GIVEN THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DURING THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVING WAY
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...THE RAINY SEASON WON/T BE ENDING FOR THE
LOCAL AREA QUITE YET. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH AND VCTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS PUSHED INLAND BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EASTERLY FLOW BUILDS IN BY
TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR
NOW WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL COVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH HELPING TO KEEP THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  86  74  88 /  50  50  50  60
FMY  73  86  74  90 /  50  60  40  70
GIF  72  86  73  89 /  50  60  30  50
SRQ  73  87  74  89 /  40  50  40  60
BKV  70  86  70  89 /  40  50  30  60
SPG  76  85  76  88 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA




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