Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 032023
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP A WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA LEADING TO SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY CONTINUES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
CLIMBS...BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED A FEW
DEGREES ACCORDING TO LATEST COASTAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR SEA FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WHERE THE WATERS ARE THE
COOLEST.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NATURE COAST TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
GULF COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS...FL STRAITS AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL AND SEA FOG PROBABLE.

FRIDAY...WSW UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE FOR MESSY BACK DOOR FROPA AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE
REGION THE FROM NORTH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT ONLY EXPECT LOW
END POPS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES.

THE WEEKEND...MODELS START TO DIFFER IN POSSIBLE WEAK OVERRUNNING
SOLUTIONS BUT EXPECT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WSW MID TO UPPER
FLOW PRODUCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN POPS ATTM.

EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK WITH CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SW FINALLY EJECTING EASTWARD. DO EXPECT SW
FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF SURFACE FEATURE IN WESTERN
GULF...BUT EXACT TIMING...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH TOO UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN MORE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION
LATE TONIGHT AND THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL DENSE FOG THREAT AND
TEND MORE TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH
EXERCISE CAUTION...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  81  65  81 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  65  86  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  65  86  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  62  83  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  59  84  58  83 /   0   0  10  20
SPG  66  80  66  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




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