Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 010820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE
SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND BE ENHANCED AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GREATEST
HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES...BUT
GENERALLY STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FEATURES A SIMILAR SET-UP WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  92  77 /  60  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  93  75 /  60  10  50  20
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  50  10  40  10
SRQ  93  75  93  75 /  60  20  50  30
BKV  94  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  92  79  91  79 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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