Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 010746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. E/SE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...S/SE CENTRAL...AND W/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TIMING NORTH AND AFTERNOON TIMING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE
70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS
LOWERED FOR TODAY WITH THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND NO STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TODAY...THOUGH A FEW RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS STILL
POSSIBLE NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FLATTENS OUT ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS IN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL REORIENT THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY. ON THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH BRINGING MORE OF THE AREA INTO EASTERLY FLOW
AND LATER THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. AS THE LONG WAVE DRIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A COOL FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH A CLOUDIER SCENARIO EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL
WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...WITH SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



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