Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 280659
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
An upper low in the central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce
abundant moisture over the Florida peninsula which in turn is
producing a broken to overcast cloud deck. This trough moves slowly
westward, but will continue to produce a southwest upper level flow
which will keep an upper cloud deck through the period. On the
surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges west over the southeast
U.S. Over the Gulf, a surface trough extends from Cuba northward
over the eastern gulf. The gradient between this trough and high
pressure to the north will keep gusty east northeast winds across
the region. Partly cloudy skies and really no speak of any rain can
be expected through the period. Temperatures will remain around
average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Thursday)...
High pressure will remain centered just to the north of the area
through Monday. The ridge will weaken for early next week as a
weakening front moves through the mid-Atlantic. This front will wash
out Tuesday as high pressure to the northeast builds down into the
region. High pressure will then continue across the area through the
rest of the period. East to northeast flow will be in place with
limited moisture keeping much of the period rain-free. Temperatures
will be in the lower to mid 80s for highs and lows in the 60s.
BKN-OVC cirrus shield continues overhead through the period while
all TAF sites remain in VFR conditions with gusty east northeast
winds on Friday.
An east northeast wind flow will continue over the coastal waters as
high pressure over the southeast U.S. interacts with a trough of low
pressure over the gulf waters. Winds will approach small craft
advisory level from Tarpon Springs southward through Saturday
morning. Winds will slightly decrease for the remainder of the
weekend, but will still be near cautionary level for small craft
operators. As far as rainfall or storms, none can be expected for
the next 5 days. No other marine impacts are expected.
Elevated 20 foot winds and transport winds combined with mixing
heights in the 3-4KFT range will continue to support high dispersion
indices across the forecast area the next couple of days, otherwise
no other fire weather issues are expected at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 85 69 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 85 70 86 70 / 10 10 10 0
GIF 84 67 85 67 / 10 0 20 0
SRQ 85 70 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 84 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 71 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard