Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 311847
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
247 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft- an upper low was across the northern plains while ridging
over mexico reached over the southern and central plains. a trough
was from the Mid-Atlantic coast to Cuba. Surface - post-tropical
cyclone Boniie was along the NC/VA coast while Atlantic high
pressure ridged westward across FL to the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Wednesday)...
The northern plains upper low rotates into Canada with the ridge
shifting over the Gulf and southeast CONUS and weakening
slightly. The trough lifts up to the northeast. At the surface
atlantic high pressure continues to ridge into the Gulf...with the
axis through central FL.

The upper ridge will bring some very subtle drying and stability
aloft. However...model PWAT values in the 1.5 to near 1.8 inch
range along with day time heating and sea breeze circulations in
the relaxed pressure field will support showers and thunderstorms.
These will continue the trend of the last couple of days of
forming in the early afternoon then winding down in the evening.
The rain chances will range from slight chance to chance...with
the highest chances late in the afternoon inland.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)... At the start of the
long range period, a large upper cyclone will be positioned along
the Canadian border near the Great Lakes region, with fast zonal
flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. Further south, a slowly
meandering upper level low will be positioned over Texas and
Oklahoma, with prolific rainfall possible across portions of eastern
and central Texas and the Texas gulf coast. To its east, broad upper
level ridging will prevail from the central Gulf of Mexico into the
western Atlantic, overspreading the Florida peninsula.

From mid week into the weekend, the larger scale synoptic pattern
will change very little. Upper level ridging will continue across
the region with very warm humid days and weak winds. The mean
position of the surface ridge axis looks to extend across northern
or central Florida, promoting south to southeasterly flow each day.
This will favor daily rounds of sea-breeze induced thunderstorms,
especially across portions of southwest and west central Florida as
sea breeze convergence is maximized. A plume of deeper moisture also
looks to reside across the southern third of the peninsula, which
may favor heavier rainfall potential.

From this weekend into early next week, the upper trough across
eastern Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico will open up and
accelerate eastward as a potent shortwave traverses the northern
states. This looks to drive a cold front southward into at least the
Florida panhandle. To the south of this feature, models depict an
area of disturbed weather taking shape in the Caribbean and southern
Gulf of Mexico. This feature then is forecast to drift northward
along the western edge of a mid level ridge, possibly developing
into an area of low pressure. With it, increasing deep tropospheric
moisture should yield more widespread diurnal shower and
thunderstorm activity, especially across southern Florida and the
Florida Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through 01/18Z. Currently VFR as ISOLD TSRA are starting along
the sea breeze boundary with winds westerly or soon to be
westerly. Expect VCNTY TSRA with possible MVFR/LCL IFR through the
afternoon...but lingering later down south. VFR overnight and Wed
morning with just few-sct clouds. Winds collapse over night to
light variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure ridges across the waters through the
period...with an axis meandering across central FL that lifts into
north FL by the weekend. The gradient remains relaxed with sea
breezes forming the afternoon. Winds and seas rather benign but
will be briefly higher near thunderstorms

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample moisture for the next few days will preclude any concerns
about low humidity values. There will be isolated to scattered
storms with lightning and gusty winds. No significant fog is
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  91  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
FMY  72  90  74  92 /  30  30  30  30
GIF  72  92  73  93 /  40  30  20  30
SRQ  73  86  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
BKV  69  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  30
SPG  76  89  76  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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