Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 080149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS FAVOR FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND EROSION ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NOW REALLY SPUN UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS A POWERFUL OCEAN
STORM. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TAKING
ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE...AND THE NEAR SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING. THIS RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS SUBSIDING OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN IS
ALREADY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY
APPROACH FREEZING UP OVER LEVY COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE LATE...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FROST COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LETS
CALL IT FILTERED SUN THROUGH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EVERYONE WILL BE WINDY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE
BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
IS LIKELY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE
REQUIRED. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH
EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY AND
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH SOLID HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS MEANS WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE SLOWER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA


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