Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 300305
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
905 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue to move into central and southwest Montana overnight.
Going forecast seems to have a pretty good handle on the situation
and do not believe that any updates are needed at this time. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2310Z.

An upper level shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will approach
the Rockies tonight. Central and Southwest Montana will become
increasingly moist with an increasing chance of showers. Most
precipitation through Monday will be across the northern and central
portions of the region while Southwest Montana, including KBZN, will
see less precipitation. Surface winds will strengthen overnight and
be gusty through Monday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers although VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Today through Tuesday...Trough extending into the Pac NW from
Canada has started to bring a little more moist sw flow...as
evident from scattered showers developing across NW MT. As this
trough pushes eastward this afternoon...isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CWA. These
storms are expected to be fairly generic. Thunderstorm activity
will diminish tonight...however...the trough now associated with
an upper level trough could bring two distinct areas of
precipitation tonight...one area across the Rocky Mountain front
and the other from Dillon to Great Falls to Havre and east.
Models are still in fairly decent agreement with the closed upper
low moving over northeast Montana late Monday morning through the
afternoon and focusing the best chance for precipitation over
central...northern and eastern Montana. Gusty northwest winds will
also be found with this system on Monday and possibly into
Tuesday. The upper low continues to exit to the east Monday night
but wrap- around circulation will keep showers active across the
eastern half of the county warning area. Tuesday will see
lingering showers in the east but drying conditions across the
west as high pressure begins to build in. Gusty northwest winds
Tuesday will keep temperatures cool. Afternoon readings will be
near to slightly above seasonal averages today but will drop below
said averages Monday and Tuesday. There is also just enough cold
air with this system that it could lower snow levels to 6500 to
7500 feet Monday morning into Tuesday morning. Accumulating snow
will be tough to come by this time of year...however...can not be
ruled out at the higher mountain peaks. Anglin

Tuesday night through Sunday...Warm and dry conditions are
anticipated from Wednesday through next weekend as a broad upper
level ridge sits over the western United States. A few minor
shortwave features will move through the ridge and could produce
isolated afternoon thundershowers mainly over our western and
southwest mountains. Temperatures will trend above average, reaching
the low to mid 80s across much of our forecast area. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  41  61 /  40  50  30  20
CTB  42  55  38  61 /  10  60  30  10
HLN  45  63  42  66 /  30  20  20  10
BZN  42  63  37  64 /  30  30  20  10
WEY  37  56  32  58 /  20  20  10  10
DLN  40  63  36  65 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  46  57  46  61 /  20  60  50  40
LWT  45  57  41  58 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.