Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 062343
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
443 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...An upper level high pressure ridge will
remain over the West Coast through Sunday although several
disturbances will pass through the area. The air mass will become
slightly unstable Saturday afternoon as a shortwave moves through
the northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary
will cross the Canadian border in the morning and move into the
southwest zones by late afternoon. This will bring a chance of
showers to the region. Conditions will dry again after midnight
Saturday night as low level flow switches to the west. Temperatures
will remain well above normals through the period with some cooling
on Saturday before trending upwards again on Sunday. Zelzer

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models now in fairly
decent agreement. The period starts out mild and dry as a broad
upper ridge amplifies over the west coast and then moves east of the
Continental Divide Wednesday morning. The ridge flattens a bit
Wednesday afternoon as short wave energy moves through, resulting in
showers developing over the western mountains which spread east over
the plains Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday, the upper ridge
rebuilds over western Montana with isolated showers confined to the
mountains. Later runs of the GFS has resulted in warmer and drier
conditions than earlier versions. The GFS is now more in step with
the European model and, as a result, temperatures have been raised
for the end of the week. Afternoon readings for the period will be
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2343Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as high pressure
remains anchored along the US West coast. A weak weather disturbance
will drop SE from Alberta into North-Central MT Saturday afternoon,
bringing another increase in cloudiness and possibly some isolated
showers late Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will decrease
overnight and are not expected to be as strong Saturday. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  52  29  55 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  28  48  28  53 /   0  30  20   0
HLN  33  56  31  57 /   0  20  10   0
BZN  26  54  26  55 /   0  10  10   0
WEY  13  45  15  45 /   0  10  10   0
DLN  30  56  28  56 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  24  49  24  55 /   0  30  10   0
LWT  28  48  27  52 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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