Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 230411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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