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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231040
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
445 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...
Today through Thursday it will be warm and across North-central and
Central Montana. In Southwestern Montana there are precipitation
chances with a rumble of thunder possible on Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday into Saturday the next weather system will move into the area
and bring cooler temperatures and precipitation. Sunday into early
next week temperatures will warm back up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday... Today an upper-level ridge will move
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
allow temperatures to warm up slightly with dry weather and clear
skies across the area on Tuesday. On Wednesday the upper-level ridge
remains in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. Embedded in the ridge there is a shortwave. This shortwave
will bring rain and potentially a few rumbles of thunder and
lightning to Southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening.
These thunderstorms will not be severe. Total rain accumulations
will be less than a tenth of inch with higher amounts possible in
locations that have a thunderstorm. On Wednesday temperatures will
be the warmest of the week. On Wednesday most of the lower-
elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana have
a 70 - 100% chance for temperatures 70 degrees or greater. On
Thursday the upper-level ridge begins to move eastward out of the
area above North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On
Thursday along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor and
west of US Highway 287 south of Three Forks there is a 10 - 20%
chance for a 0.10 of an inch of rain or greater. For the lower-
elevations from Three Forks to the Bozeman area south to the Idaho
border there is a 15 - 40% chance of 0.25 of an inch of rain or
greater on Thursday. The rain in Southwestern Montana on Thursday
could come in the form of a thunderstorm. For the Gallatin and
Madison ranges there is a 20 - 40% for a tenth of an inch of snow or
greater on Thursday.

Friday through next Tuesday... On Friday an upper-level trough will
begin to over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This
will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to the area. This
upper-level trough will remain in place over North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Saturday. At this time precipitation
type/amount and how much cooler the area will get with this system
is uncertain. Additionally, currently it is likely that locations
along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor will receive the
highest total precipitation amounts. The mountains of Southwestern
Montana will most likely receive snow. This will need to continue to
be monitored for updates.

On Sunday clusters indicate that an upper-level ridge will most
likely move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
On Monday that upper-level ridge will most likely stay over the
area. This will bring a slight warm-up to North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday three of
the clusters (76% of ensemble members) indicate that there will be
an upper-level trough that begins to move toward Montana. This would
indicate a new weather system moving toward Montana. The other
cluster (24% of ensemble members) has zonal flow over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana which would keep status quo
weather for the area. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
445 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 (23/12Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period. Do
expect increasing high clouds over the CWA this afternoon and
evening. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  37  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  62  31  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  66  37  75  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  62  32  71  40 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  56  25  63  33 /   0   0  10  30
DLN  61  33  70  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  65  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  35  70  42 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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