Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 310819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen





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