Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Mid/upper level low pressure currently located directly overhead
this morning. This system is pretty much stacked therefore the main
forcing appears to be associated with the trowal. The trowal which
is in central KS will gradually shift eastward today, but weaken
over time. The cold front will pass through east central KS and
generate scattered showers. Additional rainfall amounts should range
from one quarter to one half of an inch by this evening. The highest
totals will be across western portions of the forecast area where
the trowal is expected to linger and regenerate showers. Given the
maturity of the system the pressure gradient is tight on the
backside, which is causing gusty winds out of the north. The gusty
winds will cover most of the area today, but are forecasted to
gradually decrease through out the day as high pressure builds in
behind the system. Once the cold front moves through temperatures
will generally be in the 40s today with mostly cloudy skies. Most
locations will be dry by this time tomorrow and lows tonight drop
into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A brief break from precipitation is expected Friday as a weak ridge
develops between the exiting trough to the east and the next
approaching system over the Rockies.  Models show the closed low
over the Four Corners region Friday morning slowing tracking
eastward toward the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles on Saturday before it
transitions back to an open-wave trough on Sunday.  The center of
the associated surface low will likely track south of the CWA, with
wrap-around moisture expected to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the CWA late Friday night through
Sunday morning.  Models show another weak ridge developing across
the Central Plains behind this exiting system Sunday night into
Monday, resulting in another brief stretch of dry conditions.
However, the next mid-level wave will be advancing into the Pacific
Northwest by late weekend and will quickly progress southeastward
across the Rockies Monday/Monday night before shifting into the
central U.S. by Tuesday.  This advancing system will push an area of
surface low pressure into Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday, with an
associated cold front and wrap-around precipitation bringing
scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the CWA Tuesday
and Wednesday.  While there is decent model agreement with the
tracking of this system into the central U.S., the ECMWF is slower
in this system exiting the CWA (compared to the GFS).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

IFR to low MVFR CIGS will persist into tomorrow with northerly
winds gradually weakening this afternoon. Patchy fog is  possible
towards central Kansas closer to a ridge of high pressure, but at
this point have not introduced fog into the TAF sites further
east of the high.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Skow


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