Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Confidence remains moderate in IFR to LIFR ceilings and vis tonight
at TAF sites. Conditions should deteriorate after 07Z with some
combination of a ceiling around 1000 ft and vis below 5SM. Then
expect continued reduction of both cig and vis with IFR appearing
likely after 09Z. These conditions should remain in place until
around 14Z when increased mixing will bring a rapid improvement to
SKC with gusty winds. Also expect LLWS tonight with winds from the
east at sfc and southwest winds to 30 kts around 1000 ft AGL.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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