653
FXUS65 KTWC 102104
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the weekend. Daily
high temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, then
several degrees above normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low will slowly shift from the Great Basin eastward past
the central-southern Rockies through this weekend. This pattern
puts southern Arizona under persistent tightened and increased
flow aloft, which continues next week as a subtropical jet looks
to remain in the vicinity. This will likely lead to afternoon
breeziness through much of the forecast period through next week.
Without any major fluctuations in flow over the next several
days, no changes from the current dry weather is expected.
Afternoon minimum relative humidities remain dry with values down
to the single digits in the valleys, but for the most part winds
look to stay light enough to prevent more concerning fire weather
conditions. The exception will be tomorrow as the upper low is
crossing the area to the north, which should produce sustained
winds of 15 to 20 mph. This may produce near critical fire weather
conditions tomorrow afternoon, especially in areas closer to the
New Mexico border.

The pattern remains dry through early next week while a shortwave
ridge is expected to cross the region. Then a southern stream
trough should cross southern Arizona through the middle of the
week. The lack of any notable moisture with this passage keeps the
forecast mostly dry, though with a slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms in the Whites which will be on the edge of better
instability to the north.

Towards the end of next week ensemble temperature probabilities
favor a rise in temperatures where highs into the upper 90s would
be possible. The 500mb solutions however show a far amount of
disagreement in the upper level pattern during this period,
leading to a less certain forecast for this trend. EC/GEFS/CMC
mean 500mb heights still favor some sort of upper level height
growth, so the question is likely at what point do temperatures
warm further and if a few degrees above normal or well above
normal is more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
Skies SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds westerly to
northwesterly at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. After 11/04Z,
SFC winds return to typical diurnal .AVIATION...wind shifts and
less than 10 kts through 11/18Z. Tomorrow SFC winds westerly to
northwesterly with speeds of 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to
around 25 kts through end of period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon temperatures near to slightly above normal will persist
into next week. Min RH values will remain in the single digits to
lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens
for the mountains. Tomorrow and Sunday, breezy west to northwest
winds 15-20 mph combined with already low relative humidity in
place may result in near critical fire weather conditions.
Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness will persist into next
week each afternoon due to daytime heating. Winds become light and
variable overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Strongman
Fire Weather....Edwards

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