Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271707
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1007 AM MST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level low over the southwest will maintain
the cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions into early
next week. Then high pressure will build over the region the end of
next week resulting in hotter temperatures with highs of 100 or more
forecast across the lower deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across southeast Arizona this morning with
projected afternoon high temperatures running a couple of degrees
below normal. The current forecast looked on track, so no updates
necessary this morning. Please refer to the additional sections in
this product for details on the forecast.


 &&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
A clear to mostly clear sky will prevail through the period except
sct cumulus clouds 10-12k ft agl after 27/21z over the White Mtns.
Sfc wind wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with lcly higher gusts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with near normal conditions expected
this weekend and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal
20-ft winds, but still gusty during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Saturday through at least next Tuesday, a weak
upper level low will develop over southern California Saturday then
very slowly drift across Arizona and into New Mexico by Tuesday or
Wednesday. This system is fairly weak and has very little moisture
to work with, thus other than a small chance of convection over the
White mountains it will be dry through the period. This system will
help to hold temperatures to slightly cooler than average this
weekend through Wednesday.

Then some form of longwave ridging is forecast to take place over
the western U.S. late next week into the following weekend with
significantly rising heights and thicknesses over AZ. As a result
temperatures will warm to above average levels with 100 plus
readings likely across the lower deserts west of Tucson with a shot
a 100 at TIA Thursday or Friday if current model trends hold.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

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