Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND
FOR TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTY WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

EVEN WITH SOME OF THE INCREASED CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS EARLIER
TODAY...TUCSON STILL MANAGED A HIGH OF 96 DEGREES AND IT WAS THE
FIRST DAY IN OVER 2 WEEKS WITH A HIGH ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
AND THEN RATCHETING UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
HIGH IN TUCSON FOR THE SEASON STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR SATURDAY.
SHOULD IT NOT HIT SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS NEARLY A GIVEN WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY NEAR 105.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES THIS EVENING. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOMING WLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 28/19Z WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AGAIN AFTER 29/02Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS AS WE APPROACH
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE BASE OF THE REGIONAL TROUGH. IT HAS ONLY PATCHY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND IS NO THREAT FOR PRECIP IN OUR
CORNER OF THE STATE. AS THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PUSHES NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A STRONG AND BROAD BASED
RIDGE POSITION WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS WE LOSE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT. THE RESULTING
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TUCSON TO IT`S FIRST 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THICKNESSES MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT THE FIRST 105 OF THE SEASON SUNDAY
BUT RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS STILL JUST SHORT OF THAT MARK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BRING CONVECTION AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO PORTIONS
OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF BOTH SPILLING OVER INTO
FAR EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

AS EXPECTED THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THAT MEANS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION BUT FURTHER NORTH...WITH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STILL INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF US
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR TUCSON.

WE`RE STILL WATCHING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO (WELL
SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA) AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. NHC EXPECTS TO BECOME OUR FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE
SEASON (ANDRES) IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHAT IT DOES THEN MAY IMPACT
OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY NEXT WEEK. IF IT IS ABLE TO PUSH INTO A POSITION
THAT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IT COULD HELP GUIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S TOO EARLY TO HAVE A SOLID HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...LADER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/FRENCH


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