Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230912
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 23/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EASTERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SONORA. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST.

MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE TODAY...EXPECT ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
THIS TO BE A FAIRLY COOL SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND
THE 6-7K FT LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THAT SAID...COULD SEE
A FEW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
CONSIDERABLE WINDS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...BLOWING
DUST OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS COULD POSE A PROBLEM...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SINCE ONLY EXPECTING VIRGA...SO RAIN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WILL KEEP DESERT FLOORS DRY AND STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE DUST...ESPECIALLY IN DUST PRONE AREAS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN BELOW NORMAL
LOWS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS 2 TO 5 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MOLLERE







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