Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281531
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
831 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED AND DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SCALE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 28N/130W. THE RIDGE IS NOT ONLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING BUT FOR THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. THE
12Z KTWC SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED A 1-3 DEG F WARMING IN THE
SFC-700 MB LAYER OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. GIVEN THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGH
FOR KTUS WAS 93 DEGS YESTERDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 94 DEGS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. IN FACT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET
95 DEGS. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT NEARING OR BREAKING THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED RIVER OVER US. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SPRING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH JUST A BIT OF SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES DROP
SLIGHTLY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ADVECTING IN SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND MAINTAIN
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR COCHISE
COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THEREAFTER...DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. AS
WE ENTER THE WINDIEST MONTH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR OUR
AREA...AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS FOR TUCSON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
MARCH 28TH AND SUNDAY MARCH 29TH.

DATE                    MARCH 28TH     MARCH 29TH
                          FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       94  91/1943    92  91/1943
AJO                       94  97/1988    93  93/1943
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         94  94/1986    93  98/1971
PICACHO PEAK              94  92/1988    93  93/2004
NOGALES                   89  84/1986    86  85/1967
FORT THOMAS               89  87/1986    87  86/2012
SAFFORD                   87  91/1988    86  89/1953
SIERRA VISTA              85  82/1967    83  83/2012
TOMBSTONE                 85  87/1917    83  86/1943
WILLCOX                   85  89/1916    83  88/1916
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT    86  85/2012    84  85/2012

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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