Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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580
FXUS65 KTWC 012134
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
234 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS NORTH OF
TUCSON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO TRACK THROUGH THE STATE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. WIND PROBABILITIES DERIVED FROM THE
GEFS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGGED TO ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
MAINLY BKN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL WITH ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS THRU ABOUT 02/03Z.
THEREAFTER...CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING AND BECOMING SCT 8-12K FT AGL
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED SLIGH CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR THE WHITE MTNS. SFC WIND WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG. SFC WIND DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES
ON MONDAY OF 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

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