Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210948
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
248 AM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail into early next week. The greatest
daily thunderstorm coverage should occur east to south of Tucson
with reduced thunderstorm activity across the western deserts. A
less favorable pattern may temporarily bring reduced thunderstorm
coverage around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Outflow from earlier storms north of the area along
with weak upper level diffluence is helping to push and pull
scattered showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms up around
the area this morning. Otherwise, a bigger picture is showing
cloud tops continuing to warm with partial clearing here and
there. Copious available moisture continues with precipitable
water values ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Weak shear and modest
storm level flow will again make heavy rain and isolated wet
microburst activity a concern.

We`ll keep enough moisture around for decent storm chances into
early next week. Weak troughiness developing to our northwest may
actually stack a westerly component to our flow and temporarily
push deepest moisture into Chihuahua and New Mexico around Tuesday
or Wednesday. Potential to give us our first break of any
significance. Don`t count your chickens before they hatch though.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 22/12Z.
VFR conditions with cloud decks generally 5k-10k ft AGL with BKN
layers above, and surface wind variable in direction mainly less
than 12 kts. SCT TSRA developing after 21/18Z and lingering through
22/06Z. Winds vicinity TSRA could gust 40+ kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue into early next week with locally heavy
rain and strong winds. Temperatures will remain below normal with a
continuation of elevated humidity levels through Tuesday. Wednesday
onward conditions will become a bit drier and warmer with somewhat
less convection. From 20-foot winds will mainly remain below 15 mph
with the exception of strong outflow winds in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Cerniglia

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