Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302129
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. WE HAD A RAPID WARM-UP TO 90 AT TIA BY
NOON...BUT THINGS HAVE LEVELED OUT QUITE A BIT. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS STILL
STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SO...ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF
H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRYISH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FURTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.  SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA






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