Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 060417 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
917 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL YIELD INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA CONTINUING TO COOL AND LOCAL HIRES
MODELS SHOW THE BEST CAPE AND LOWEST LI`S VALUES IN THESE AREA. ITS
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT...BUT ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO
LOWER POPS AND RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS.


.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS 10-20KTS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 8-12KTS. ITS STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT
WITH THE BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FEW-SCT120 OVERNIGHT...BUT
COULD POSSIBLE DROP TO AROUND 7K FEET WITH ANY PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT WILL BE
NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. CIGS DOWN TO 5-
6K FEET AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
DOWN TO 6-7K FEET AT TIMES. SOUTH WINDS 10-20KTS WILL TRANSITION TO A
SOUTH WEST DIRECTION LATE IN THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS 10-
15KTS...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR STORMS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
258 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY.

BREEZY WINDS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE ONLY GUSTED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MOST PLACES, BUT WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE UNTIL EXPIRATION, OR UNTIL SPEEDS DECREASE.

AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...DECREASING TEMPS
ALOFT, BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE GREATEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BEST
MOISTURE...ALONG THE CA- NV BORDER UP INTO NYE COUNTY AND WESTWARD
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO TRY TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EVEN BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH
LAS VEGAS AROUND 6Z OR SO. EXTENDED SLIGHT POPS ALL THE WAY SOUTH IN
RESPONSE.

FOR TOMORROW...MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER-LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING PLENTY OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ONCE AGAIN REACH OVER ONE-HALF INCH...AND MAY APPROACH
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. THE BEST SHEAR WILL SLIDE
OFF EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY...HOWEVER 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR
WILL REMAIN IN MOHAVE, NORTHEAST CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING MID-
LEVEL DRYING...YIELDING A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND DEVELOPING CAPE VALUES
OF 500 TO 750 J/KG IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. GIVEN MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG, WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME RATHER
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN AT LEAST SOME SHEAR...AND WITH STORM
MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL...STORMS MAY TRAIN AND POSE SOME
FLOODING THREAT IN MOHAVE, NORTHEAST CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ELONGATES, THOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SIERRA NEVADA...WHERE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE GONE BY MONDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN COUNTY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE ARRIVAL OF RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HANG ON TO
SOME VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW DIVES INTO MONTANA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, YET I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS WE GO FROM 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...STEELE
AVIATION.....OUTLER
LONG TERM....PADDOCK

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