Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

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