Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 241026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
226 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT AND DRY
AUTUMN CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM NEAR
NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS...CHIEFLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU...BUT THE DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BE APPARENT EVERYWHERE. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. FOR LAS VEGAS THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID
60`S TODAY INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY. BUT FIRST...ENJOY A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN
CANADA...KNOCKING DOWN OUR RIDGE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WET...BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE COAST...SO KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS FOR DAY 8 /MONDAY/. THE MAIN EFFECTS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP A BIT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING
HOLDS. IF FURTHER SLOWING OCCURS...IT MAY BE A DAY OR EVEN TWO
LATER. EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS HIGH...SO EXPECT A CHANGE TO COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. IN ANY CASE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

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