Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 110429
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
829 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather is expected over most of the area
through the middle of next week, with considerable high cloudiness
at times. Showers will continue overnight over the Sierra and far
northern Lincoln County, with light snow accumulations expected
above 9000 feet. A pattern change, that may usher in cooler and
unsettled weather, will be possible by late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday night...

A fast moving pacific s/wv is bringing rain and snow to the Sierra
crest south of Lake Tahoe this evening. A weak frontal boundary
associated with this wave is spilling showers over the divide. This
boundary stretches from Reno, to Eureka and into northwest Utah.
Snow levels are around 9000-9500 feet and will fall to 8000-8500
late tonight and early Sunday. Radar estimated QPF and model trends
overnight indicate about 3-6 inches of snow are possible along the
crest through tonight, with 2-4 inches possible around Aspendell and
South Lake.

Gusty winds continue in portions of the western Mojave Desert this
evening, but speeds have decreased from the afternoon. Expect winds
well below advisory criteria the rest of tonight.

Drier northwest to west flow aloft is forecast over the area Sunday
afternoon through at least Tuesday, along with rising 500mb hghts.
This will produce dry conditions, lighter winds and periods of
middle and high clouds.

Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above normal into early
next week.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Drier westerly flow continues over the area on Wednesday, with a
weak s/wv ridge moving through the region. A significant stream of
pacific moisture will remain north of the CWA until Thursday, when a
pattern change begins to drive the moisture south once again.

Models still differ on the details, but it appears that active
weather, at least over the Sierra crest, returns Thursday afternoon
or Thursday night. Colder air and increasing moisture will continue
to move south across the area Friday and Saturday.

Models still differ on details, but confidence is increasing that a
return to cold and wet conditions is probable by late next week.
Stay tuned for details.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Periods of mainly high clouds through
the period. Occasional patchy sc/cu with bases from 7-10kft agl
possible. Light WSW winds overnight becmg light and variable during
the day Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...West winds 20-30 kts are possible across western San
Bernardino County with generally 10-20 kts elsewhere. Some enhanced
downslope winds will also be possible through tonight across the
eastern Sierra slopes where gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
Generally lighter winds on Sunday.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Peterson
LONG TERM...Peterson

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