Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 310942 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moist and unstable air will lead to a chance of
thunderstorms across much of the area again today. Thunderstorms
will remain a possibility much of next week especially for Northwest
Arizona, with increasingly dry conditions further west. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal normals. &&

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday night.

The current pattern will change little for the next several days
which means recurring chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some days will be more active than others due to embedded
disturbances and variations in the day to day cloud cover and
instability.  Early indications for today would suggest the favored
areas for thunderstorms will be across Southern Nevada and Northwest
Arizona. Thunderstorms which due form will produce very heavy
rainfall and the potential for flash flooding thanks to their slow
movement, as well as strong outflow winds.  Similar to Saturday,
it`s possible storms developing across the southern Great Basin
could congeal into a larger complex and develop into northwest
Arizona overnight, so that will bear watching.

Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures for late July/early
August and periods of cloud cover and thunderstorm cloud debris.
Lingering monsoon moisture and scattered storms will keep humidity
levels elevated and result in a hint of stickiness to the air.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...

No changes made in the extended. Biggest feature of interest will be
an inverted trough lifting northward into Arizona late Tuesday
through Thursday. This feature will drive some very rich moisture
into Arizona along with considerable cloud cover. Being that our
forecast area is on the west edge of this, it may enhance our
potential by easing the cloud cover limitations on destabilization
that will be more problematic further east.  The feature will bear
watching for the potential of flash flooding. Otherwise...continued
thunderstorm activity through the week with our eastern areas most
favored. Temperatures through the period will remain near seasonal
normals.


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds through the
morning hours will give way to stronger southwesterly breezes during
the afternoon with gusts to 20 knots. Thunderstorms are again
possible today, and outflow winds may complicate the wind forecast.
Skies will be mostly sunny in the morning and become partly to
mostly cloudy during the afternoon with cloud bases above 10kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Similar conditions to Saturday expected with scattered
thunderstorms particularly across the Southern Great Basin and
Northwest Arizona. Otherwise...breezy southwest winds expected
during the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Thunderstorm
outflow winds may impact TAF sites near Vegas and Bishop, but that
remains to be seen. Otherwise...sct clouds at or above 10k feet with
convective turbulence near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms possible once again today,
with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.
Temperatures will warm to near seasonal normals with the added
monsoon moisture providing an increase both afternoon and morning
humidity levels. Similar conditions expected throughout the week. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Discussion...Outler

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