Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 221658
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
858 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm weather is forecast through the
upcoming weekend with records expected to be set in many locations
around the region today and Thanksgiving Day. A pattern change early
next week will add more complexity to the forecast as a low pressure
system brings a period of gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the
region.

&&

.UPDATE... Dry and warm pattern continues today under stationary
high pressure over the region. Max temps this afternoon are within a
degree or two of the daily records and there is a good chance that a
few of these will be broken today. The Colorado River Valley could
see some gusts through mid afternoon of 20-30 mph with light winds
expected elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...for the next 7 days.

High pressure is firmly in control through Thanksgiving Day and as
such...temperatures are expected to be well above seasonal normals
and record breaking in many locations. Surface inversions that have
been strong enough to keep valley locations cooler, are not forecast
to be as strong today and Thursday and this should allow for a
little more mixing in the lower atmosphere. The vast majority of
model solutions and MOS guidance suggests highs today will top out
in the upper 70s in Las Vegas so went with the consensus for this
forecast package and dropped the official high to under 80 degrees.
Even more models joined in for Thanksgiving day and forecast a
temperatures a touch cooler than Wednesday. With more high clouds
forecast, this seemed reasonable and decided to maintain the current
upper 70s forecast. Even so, both days would see new record high
temperatures for Las Vegas if the forecast works out. The same goes
for many locations around the forecast area as this Thanksgiving Day
is expected to be the warmest in years.

A shortwave far to the north with move from the Pacific NW Thursday
afternoon to the Northern Plains on Friday. This does little more
than lower heights a bit over our area and thus keeps temperatures
12-15 degrees above normal through the weekend. High pressure will
also begin to break down late in the weekend with ridging moving to
the central part of the country in response to a vigorous Pacific
shortwave approaching from the west. Depending on the model, we
should see affects from this system as early as Sunday night with a
strong cold front pushing through the area Monday into Tuesday. Some
shower activity is possible in the Sierra and White Mountains near
Bishop and potential in Lincoln County as well Sunday night and
Monday. Winds will be the main issue however, with gusty south to
southwest winds Sunday night followed by strong north winds Monday
behind the front. There is plenty of time to watch how this pattern
begins to unfold and whether a ramp up weather support will be
needed. The cold front will also usher in cooler temperatures that
should be closer to normal on Tuesday. Dropped temps a notch on
Tuesday in response.
&&

.CLIMATE...Temperatures will be in record territory over the next
couple of days threatening records that have stood strong for
decades in many instances. Below is a table featuring a few
locations around the region and their current records and year set.

               WED 11/22  THU 11/23  FRI 11/24  SAT 11/25
Las Vegas, NV  77 (1976)  76 (1995)  81 (1949)  76 (1970)
Bishop, CA     76 (1954)  78 (1959)  80 (1949)  78 (1954)
Barstow, CA    80 (1981)  82 (1949)  85 (1949)  81 (1959)
Needles, CA    83 (1950)  82 (1995)  84 (1949)  83 (1949)
Kingman, AZ    77 (2002)  82 (1915)  84 (1921)  83 (1921)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds following typical diurnal
patterns are expected through Friday. Skies will be clear today,
then high clouds will likely increase somewhat on Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A strong ridge of high pressure over the southern Great
Basin and Mojave Desert will lead to clear skies today, then high
clouds will increase again Thursday. North breezes down the Colorado
River Valley at KIFP and KEED will continue today with gusts to 25
kts at IFP. Lighter north winds are expected Thursday. Meanwhile
away from the Colorado River Valley winds will mainly follow typical
diurnal patterns with speeds 8 kts or less.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Harrison
UPDATE...Guillet

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