Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 260300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
700 PM PST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A pair of weather systems will keep cool and unsettled
weather in the forecast through Tuesday before higher pressure
brings a warming trend to the region during the second half of the
work week.

.UPDATE...Satellite, radar and 00z model data are indicating to me
that any precipitation chances this evening will be limited to
northern Lincoln County. Overnight it looks like the weak activity
across northern Lincoln County will not make much southern progress
while the moisture associated with the incoming upper low will
mostly stay west of Inyo County as it dives into southern California
with slight chance pops limited to mainly western San Bernardino
County. There is still an outside chance that enough moisture will
move into Clark County for a slight chance of snow showers over the
Spring Mountains late tonight but not much confidence in that
happening. I updated to trim back pops and sky cover mainly across
Inyo and Esmeralda Counties. -Harrison-

143 PM PST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday Night.

Calm and quiet weather continues to dominate the the majority of
the region this afternoon. The only notable sensible weather is
some breezy conditions along and just north of the I-40 corridor
this afternoon. The first of two systems in the short term period
will move across the region tonight and Sunday. This system will
bring a slight chance of light precipitation to the high terrain
across the region as well as some of the deserts of San Bernardino
and Mohave counties, mainly Sunday morning. Compared to the
inherited forecast I did nudge PoPs up across the Mojave desert
regions as high-res guidance has picked up on just enough dynamic
forcing and moisture to produce some QPF. There`s a fairly decent
chance that most of this will fall as virga.

The first system quickly exits to the east Sunday afternoon with a
slower moving trough on it`s heels. The approach of this system is
expected to induce fairly widespread southerly breezes by Sunday
afternoon. Winds will increase further over favored terrain such
as the Sierra and Spring Mountains Sunday night before spreading
to the lower elevations south of the Ridgecrest-Caliente line on
Monday. Winds may be strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory by
Sunday night across the high terrain and Monday across the lower
elevations (including the western/southern edges of the Las Vegas
Valley). Will let the night shift take another look however, since
the most recent guidance was a significant departure from the
inherited forecast.

This second system will also bring another chance of showers to
the high terrain across the region, followed by a more significant
push of moisture across far southern California and
central/southern Arizona Monday afternoon and Monday night. The
majority of this moisture is expected to remain south/east of the
forecast area, however southern Mohave County and extreme
southeast San Bernardino County could see some more significant
rainfall from this system. Any precipitation should taper off
rapidly early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

A dry northwest flow will hold over the region through Saturday
allowing temperatures to warm back above normal. A weak area of low
pressure forms south of the area late in the week but is forecast to
have little moisture and no precipitation is expected.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds will continue
to favor typical diurnal trends through mid-day Sunday. A passing
system may bring CIGs down to 8-10k feet and a slight chance of
showers to the mountains surrounding the valley Sunday morning.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected. Southwest winds will
increase by late Sunday afternoon with gusts of 15-25kts. Gusty
southwest winds will persist through Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusts of 15-25kts along and just north of the I-40
corridor will diminish overnight. A passing system will bring
lower CIGs and a slight chance of showers to the high terrain
across the region and perhaps across areas south of Las Vegas
through Sunday morning. Southwest winds will increase areawide by
late Sunday afternoon/evening with gusts of 15-25kts across much
of the region. Winds are expected to strengthen overnight Sunday
night and last through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


Short Term/Aviation...Wolcott
Long Term.............Salmen

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