Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EST FEB 16 2017

...LONG-TERM SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH SLIGHT WORSENING IN THE FAR NORTH...AND SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT TO ABNORMALLY DRY REGIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

SYNOPSIS...

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE LAST
TWO WEEKS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE TWO WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 7 AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING DISTURBANCE TO THE
WEST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL
RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE...THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE RAINFALL
OCCURRED WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT
DURING THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 14.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SHALLOW SOIL MOISTURE REMAINED DRIER IN THE
NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL PERCENTILES FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENED SLIGHTLY IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO EXTEND
FROM A ZONE EAST OF TILTON AND NORTH OF DAWSONVILLE. THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH GEORGIA REMAINED IN SEVERE TO MODERATE DROUGHT. ONLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA HAD SLIGHT RECOVERY TO
ABNORMALLY DRY OR BETTER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO
TO CRAWFORDVILLE LINE. ALTHOUGH RECOVERY IN THE SHORT TERM MONTHS
HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE IN SOME AREAS...THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES
TO OVERSHADOW SOME OF THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED.
IT NORMALLY TAKES AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL TO CONSIDER ENDING A DROUGHT.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
SOME SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY ARE STILL
OCCURRING AND STREAM FLOWS AND GROUND WATER TABLES ARE VERY LOW
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW TO NEAR NORMAL IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
THE LATEST FIRE DANGER ASSESSMENT INDICATES A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. PLEASE NOTE
THAT THIS ASSESSMENT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAINFALL RECEIVED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

GENERALLY 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FELL IN THE LAST TWO
WEEKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH THE HEAVIER SWATHS
AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
AREAS FROM ROME TO GAINESVILLE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTH FROM EPHESUS
TO COVINGTON. THESE AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 75 TO 110 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND CONTRIBUTED TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVING
SLIGHT DROUGHT RECOVERY. THE LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN
PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE ONLY ABOUT 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL OCCURRED. THIS CONTRIBUTED TO THE SLIGHT WORSENING OF THE
EXTREME DROUGHT REGION FOR THE FAR NORTH.

GIVEN THAT THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SPRING...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AND DEPARTURES LISTED IN THE TABLE BELOW
WILL BE BASED ON 365 DAYS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         39.34        49.69      -10.35         79%
ATHENS          38.52        46.32       -7.80         83%
COLUMBUS        41.34        46.75       -5.41         88%
MACON           41.18        45.66       -4.48         90%
CARTERSVILLE    36.98        49.95      -12.97         74%
NE ATLANTA      34.17        53.00      -18.83         64%
WEST ATLANTA    32.23        51.19      -18.96         63%
GAINESVILLE     34.06        54.01      -19.95         63%
PEACHTREE CITY  34.45        49.98      -15.53         69%
ROME            36.30        51.94      -15.64         70%


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY BELOW WINTER POOL
LEVELS FROM AROUND 5.5 FEET AT HARTWELL TO AROUND 9 FEET AT LANIER.
THE EXCEPTIONS WERE ALLATOONA AT AROUND 6.5 FEET ABOVE WINTER
POOL...AND WEST POINT AT ALMOST 2 FEET.

THE POOL LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS. THE USACE WILL TRY TO
MAINTAIN WINTER POOL LEVELS TO PROVIDE FLOOD STORAGE THROUGH THE
SPRING.

LAKE        WINTER POOL   CURRENT LEVEL    DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET
ALLATOONA       823          829.57         +6.57
CARTERS        1072         1066.12         -5.88
HARTWELL        656          650.48         -5.52
LANIER         1070         1061.03         -8.97
THURMOND        326          320.41         -5.59
WEST POINT      628          629.93         +1.93

ADDITIONAL LAKE LEVELS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE LINK PROVIDED IN THE
RELATED WEBSITES SECTION BELOW.

STREAM LEVELS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WERE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH A MIXTURE OF BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL STREAM LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PLEASE NOTE THAT CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN IF IT OCCURS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FOR MARCH...THE OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST.

90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY...MARCH 2 2017.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

NWS WFO ATLANTA...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA
NWS WFO ATLANTA - DROUGHT RESOURCES...WEATHER.GOV/FFC/RAINDEF
NWS WFO ATLANTA - LAKE LEVELS...WEATHER.GOV/FFC/RRM
NOAA AHPS - RAINFALL TOTALS...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
OFFICE OF THE GEORGIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...EPD.GEORGIA.GOV/OFFICE-
STATE-CLIMATOLOGIST
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - WATER RESOURCES OF GEORGIA...
GA.WATER.USGS.GOV
GA FORESTRY COMMISSION - FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...
WEATHER.GFC.STATE.GA.US/MAPS/FDF1.GIF

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THIS DATA WAS FURNISHED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE GEORGIA STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST IN ATLANTA...THE GEORGIA ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
DIVISION...AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. CURRENT FIRE
DANGER ASSESSMENTS WERE PROVIDED BY THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NWS WFO ATLANTA
4 FALCON DRIVE
PEACHTREE CITY, GA 30269
PHONE: 770-486-1133
SR-FFC.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

BAKER



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