Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT
OF NORMAL RANGE. FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...MOST LOCATIONS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THERE ARE
SOME OUTLIERS WHICH ARE TRENDING HIGHER...IN THE NORMAL RANGE.
THERE ARE NO STREAMFLOW DATA AVAILABLE FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS...THE THREE MONTH TOTALS ARE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND EASTERN TIER OF PUERTO RICO. ALL
OTHER AREAS INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE RUNNING BELOW
AVERAGE EVEN WITH THE PATTERN OF QUICK PASSING SHOWERS.

SOIL MOISTURE... WHILE THE WINTER/DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS USUALLY CREATES DRIER SOILS. THE SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...GEOGRAPHICALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE THREE MONTH
RAINFALL PATTERN.

THIS FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS SO FAR BEEN RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...
DRIEST SOILS...MOST COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS SEASON.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT
CAUSE ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 210.93
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222.00 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 134.16 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET
AND LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 165.83 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL
LEVEL IS 155.00 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE RUNNING AT SIMILAR LEVELS
TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR...2015. IF THE RAINFALL PATTERN STAYS CLOSE
TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...THERE SHOULD BE NO REASON
FOR CONCERN FOR THESE RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
BASED ON THE CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
GREATER CHANCE OF NORMAL...TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE
THE SPRING OF 2016. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG EL NINO LASTING INTO
THE SPRING...BUT QUICKLY WEAKENING BY SUMMER...SUGGESTING A HIGH
CHANCE OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE REGION INDICATES...NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR THE EASTERN TIER
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


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