Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 292039

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

An upper trough will progress inland from the West Coast to the
Great Basin on Day 3/Wednesday, continuing northeastward towards the
northern Rockies on Day 4/Thursday. Some increase in low to
mid-level winds will accompany this trough as it progresses across
the Great Basin Wednesday afternoon. By Day 5/Friday and beyond,
model guidance becomes increasingly dispersive regarding
synoptic-scale features, and predictability is too low to highlight
any areas in this time frame.

...Day 3/Wednesday: Portions of the Lower CO River Valley into the
Southern Great Basin...
As the previously mentioned upper trough moves over the Great Basin
by Wednesday afternoon, an increase in southerly low-level flow
should occur as enhanced winds aloft are promoted to the surface
through diurnal mixing of the boundary layer. Recently updated fuel
guidance indicates some areas across the lower CO River Valley,
northwestern AZ, and vicinity will be supportive of large fire
starts. Confidence in elevated to perhaps critical meteorological
conditions across this area is sufficient to include a small
40%/marginal area. A larger portion of the Great Basin should
experience strong/gusty winds and lowered RH values, but fuels to
the north of the 40%/marginal area are still designated as
unreceptive at this time, which precludes a larger delineation.

..Gleason.. 05/29/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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