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FNUS28 KWNS 312108
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE D3-8 PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS SITUATED ACROSS THE ERN AND
WRN STATES...AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...SEVERAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AS A SFC CYCLONE
MOVES NE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE SERN CONUS.

AS THE WRN TROUGH PUSHES EAST ON D3/SUN...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SFC LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY SW WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NM / SERN CO. HOWEVER...MARGINAL RH
AND UNFAVORABLE FUELS WILL TEMPER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THERE FOR
D3/SUN INTO D4/MON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL KEEP RH VALUES FROM DROPPING
TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

...D5/TUE THROUGH D6/WED -- SRN CA...
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT
SETTING UP DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH /
STRONG WINDS D5/TUE INTO D6/WED ACROSS SRN CA...WITH THE POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZING TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS SRN CA. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER CAVEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THESE
REASONS...WILL CONTINUE THE 40-PERCENT AREA WHILE NOTING THAT LATER
FORECASTS COULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY IF A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IS LIGHT.

..PICCA/MOSIER.. 10/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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