Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 032036
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 051200Z - 111200Z

A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE ADVANCING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL OVERSPREAD AN ANTECEDENT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS TO ENHANCE THE
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE IN EFFECT
FROM D3/THU THROUGH D7/MON...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. CRITICAL AREAS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AZ ON D3/THU...ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/SWRN/S-CNTRL NM AND FAR SERN AZ ON D4/FRI...AND ACROSS PARTS
OF SERN NM ON D5/SAT AND D6/SUN. THESE CRITICAL AREAS INDICATE THE
DAYS AND LOCATIONS FOR WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING AMIDST DRY
FUELS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE AREAS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. RELATIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE
FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX AND NRN AZ/NM PRECLUDE
HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.

..COHEN.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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