Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282042
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BY RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY
WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...TROUGHING -- AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW -- WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRIER
SURFACE CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN A LOW THREAT FOR LARGE-SCALE
WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER
RIDGING WILL FAVOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN
CONUS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT LEAST 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH D6/SUN.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NWD THROUGHOUT THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE -- FROM SRN CA NWD INTO ORE -- WITH ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL TSTMS BEGINNING ON
D4/FRI ACROSS NRN CA AND SW ORE. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH NRN CA/SW ORE ON D4/FRI BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS ORE ON D5/SAT. GIVEN THE FICKLE TENDENCIES OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH WEAK SYSTEMS IN WEAK SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
EVEN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF DISCERNIBLE FORCING. TSTM PROBABILITIES
HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND WITH EACH MODEL RUN. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO DELINEATE ISOLATED DRY TSTM
THREAT AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC NW FOR D4/FRI
THROUGH D6/SUN. REFINEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS AS FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER AND UPDATED FUEL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

..MOSIER.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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