Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 030829
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TODAY. UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE
WRN CONUS/CANADA SHOULD SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKY MTNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
DESCRIBED ABOVE MOVES SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...
NLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME ONLY SOMEWHAT REDUCED...MOST LIKELY INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 70S. GIVEN LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RH
VALUES FALLING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS...AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
THIS REGION. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE RH
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES BELOW THIS THRESHOLD OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF
ERN SD AND SRN/WRN MN...BUT SOME RECENT PRECIPITATION FOR THESE
AREAS CASTS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON FUEL RECEPTIVENESS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS...STRONG WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO OVERLAP AREAS OF
SUFFICIENTLY LOWERED RH VALUES.

..GLEASON.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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