Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 021648
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND ERN ID...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WRN CANADA DEEPENS
OVER THIS SAME REGION...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST BUILDS NWD THROUGH EARLY THU. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXPAND
SLOWLY EWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN BY THIS
EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER ERN WA/ORE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY LATER TODAY ACROSS SERN
ORE...NWRN NV...AND CNTRL ID AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL
WITH SWLY WINDS ALOFT.

...MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
UNDER BROAD SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE
APPROACHES THIS REGION FROM THE NW. AS DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES LATER
TODAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS/MIXES. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL NEAR TO OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ONGOING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS.

THE NRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND ERN ID HAS BEEN
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING RAP/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ACROSS THIS REGION...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY...WILL
COMBINE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS
TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NV HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NV...WHERE CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH FOR MORE THAN THREE
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS MUCH OF WY...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH ON MORE THAN A BRIEF/ISOLATED BASIS
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL DESIGNATION WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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