Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 230833
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BUT A TRAILING BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FARTHER W...A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE
TROUGH AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX. A
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SWD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING SURROUNDING
THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING /ENHANCED VIA DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/ AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/. RH VALUES AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY OVER ERN NM...WHILE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DELINEATED TO THE E BY A DRYLINE/LEE SFC TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NERN CO BY EARLY EVENING...AND RESULT IN AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE N.

...HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS...
STRONG POST-FRONTAL WLY-NWLY WINDS /25-35 MPH/ WILL OVERSPREAD ERN
WY AND WRN NEB...AND EVENTUALLY NERN CO/NWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL YIELD RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AS
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 60S-70S F. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...VA...NRN NC...
A BELT OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY DRY AIR MASS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AOB 0.4 INCH.
MUCH OF VA/NRN NC WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
COASTAL MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S/70S F WITHIN A
DOWNSLOPE REGIME E OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S.

..ROGERS.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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