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000
FNUS21 KWNS 231637
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PTNS S-CNTRL/CNTRL NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...NRN AZ...NW AND CNTRL
NM...PARTS OF SW/S-CNTRL CO AND SRN/SE UT...

HAVE ADDED A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
S-CNTRL/CNTRL NM FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREA FOR WIND AND LOW RH REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT.

...PTNS S-CNTRL/CNTRL NM...
THIS AREA IS NEAR THE CENTER OF EXCEPTIONAL LONG-TERM DROUGHT AND
FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY.  S/SELY FLOW IS RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NM AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK CONVERGENCE
LINE BETWEEN SWLY AND SLY FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS S-CNTRL NM.  THIS MAY AID IN INITIATING HIGH BASED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE SETS UP...INSTABILITY OF 250 TO 500 J/KG COULD FUEL THE
HIGH BASED STORMS.  THE SUB-CLOUD HUMIDITY WOULD STILL BE IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MORE
STORMS WITH WETTING RAINS.

...SRN NV...NRN AZ...NW AND CNTRL NM...PARTS OF SW/S-CNTRL CO AND
SRN/SE UT...
ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE CNTRL NM PART OF THE
AREA...OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE CRITICAL AREA REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

...CNTRL NV INTO CNTRL UT...NW CO AND SW WY...
NO CHANGE.

...SRN AZ INTO SWRN NM...
NO CHANGE EXCEPT TO CHANGE TO INCLUDE ONLY SWRN NM AS DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF NM.

..BOTHWELL.. 05/23/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0246 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
...SRN NV...NRN AZ...NW AND CNTRL NM...PARTS OF SW/S-CNTRL CO AND
SRN/SE UT...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND PAC NW UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY
FLOW TODAY. THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
SRN/CNTRL NV...UT AND WRN CO/WY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 90S...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR WITH STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
WILL AID IN FURTHER DRYING AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. RH VALUES FROM
8 TO 15 PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UT/CO AND NW NM/NE AZ PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
HERE...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL FROM CENTRAL AZ
INTO CENTRAL NM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS INTENSE
FROM AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL NV INTO CNTRL UT...NW CO AND SW WY...
MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NV INTO CENTRAL
AND NE UT...WHERE S/SW WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW CO INTO SW WY.
HERE...S/SW WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY KEEP RH VALUES
FROM 15-25 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
FURTHER LIMIT THE FIRE THREAT.

...SRN AZ INTO SRN/SE NM...
TO THE S AND E OF THE CRITICAL...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...LEADING TO RH VALUES FROM 6-15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER HERE...FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW.
S/SW WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...