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000
FNUS76 KMFR 201700
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Sawyers Bar WUI...USFS
National Weather Service Medford OR
1000 AM PDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 PDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue across the forecast area today with snow
levels around 4500 feet, and then a new frontal system will move
through Friday night through Sunday with snow levels rising above
8000 feet Saturday. Warmer and drier weather is expected next
week, and a period of moderate to locally strong east winds is
possible Monday night into Tuesday as RHs fall from high to
moderate values. Tuesday through Friday it will be warm and dry,
and recent model guidance is now indicating the potential of strong
east winds Thursday and Friday. This is a new trend in the models,
so confidence in that portion of the forecast is low to moderate.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Rain and snow showers in the morning, then rain
                    and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Snow
                    level 4500 feet MSL.
Max temperature.....35 top - 52 bottom.
Min humidity........85 percent top - 55 percent bottom.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 6-12 mph with gusts 18 mph.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: WSW 1-6 mph.
WIND (20 FT)........Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 10-20 mph.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: WSW 5-10 mph.
Transport winds.....West-southwest 15 mph.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow
                    showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow
                    after midnight. Snow level near 4500 feet MSL.
Min temperature.....29 top - 35 bottom.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 6 mph becoming SW 9 mph
                    gusting to 15-20 mph toward morning.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: SW 1-6 mph.
WIND (20 FT)........Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 10 mph becoming SW 15 mph.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: SW 5-10 mph.
Transport winds.....West-southwest 10 mph, becoming SW 15 mph.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Rain and snow in the morning, then rain likely in the
                    afternoon. Snow level near 5000 feet MSL rising to
                    9000 feet MSL in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....45 top - 55 bottom.
Min humidity........90 percent top to 70 percent bottom.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 9-15 mph with gusts 20-25
                    mph.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: WSW 1-9 mph.
WIND (20 FT)........Ridges/Upper Slopes: WSW 15-25 mph.
                    Lower Slopes/Valleys: WSW 5-15 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15-25 mph.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, mainly in the morning. Lows 38-44. Highs
57 to 67. 20 foot wind southwest winds 15 mph, becoming NW 5 mph afternoon.
Minimum RH 45-55%.

.MONDAY...
Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows around 45. Highs 70 to 80.
20 foot wind northeast 10 mph decreasing to 5 mph afternoon.
Minimum RH 30% bottom to 20% top.

.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower to mid 50s. Highs in the mid to
upper 70s. 20 foot wind east 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 20-30%.

.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs 73 to 79. 20 foot wind NE 10-15
mph becoming NW 5-10 mph. Minimum RH 20-30%.

.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. 20 foot wind NE
15-25 mph becoming east 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 20-30%.

.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. 20 foot wind E
15-25 mph. Minimum RH 15-25%.

$$
Forecaster...LUTZ
Requested by...Ron McEwen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717615.0/MFR