Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 071707
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

                    VALID JULY 7 THROUGH JULY 12

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE HOT, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough which is moving across the Great Lakes region
is pushing a frontal boundary southward into northwest Texas.  The
front helped to initiate showers and thunderstorms as it pushed south
and east Monday afternoon and night.  These storms had sufficient
moisture to work with from air from the Gulf of Mexico.  Locally
heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches fell in the areas near Lubbock, Post
and Abilene TX.  The slow progression of this front will keep the
rain in the area through mid-day Wednesday.  The exact movement and
location of the front will determine which locations receive the
maximum rainfall the next 24 hours.  Some models have the front
stalling slightly later evening, therefore locally heavy rain is
again possible.  Rain chances in northern Texas will remain prevalent
into Wednesday before the front begins to weaken to the point where
it will no longer impact the WGRFC area.  Significant rainfall may
slip into some areas that are still draining water from the heavy
rainfall from May, but widespread flooding is not expected close to
the DFW metroplex.

This front does not appear to be the beginning of a permanent weather
pattern change.  After the upper trough in Texas moves northeast
Wednesday a ridge of high pressure will settle back into Texas.
This will bring back dry and very warm conditions for much of Texas.
Aside from diurnal thunderstorms along the Gulf from the sea breeze
front, it will be dry over Texas Thursday through Sunday.

During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area and
southern Colorado should continue and possibly even be slightly
enhanced the next 5 days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for most of New Mexico and
southern Colorado, as well as over the northwest half of Texas.  The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 4 inches, are forecast over west
central Texas near Snyder TX. Amounts of 2.00 inches are possible
from Midland to Wichita Falls into Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado into
the northwest half of Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
more are forecast for western and northern Texas, as well as over
extreme southern New Mexico into far west Texas.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado into
the northwest half of Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of New Mexico and southern Colorado as well as
far west Texas.   MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for
New Mexico, Colorado and west Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast from central into southwest New Mexico.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 inch are forecast for New Mexico, most of Colorado and
northwest Texas, as well as along and near the upper Texas Gulf
coast into southern Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
the western parts of north Texas will be enough to cause significant
runoff locally, but elsewhere widespread runoff is not expected.
Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Colorado Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Up to 4 inches of rain in Scurry County Texas will lead to minor
flooding on Deep Creek near Dunn (DEET2) and on the Colorado
River at Ira (IRAT2) and Colorado City (CDCT2). There is a slight
chance of moderate flooding at Colorado City due to the combination
of Deep Creek and Colorado River flow.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. A wave of minor
flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Long Lake
(LOLT2) is at minor flood levels and falling. Several north Texas
lakes are making changes to releases to return to desired
conservation pool levels.

Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor flood stage.
Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs outflow for several
days. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2)
and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will fluctuate power generation daily.  This
will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and  Bon
Wier this week,

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The upper portion of the basin received almost 4 inches of rain over
the past 6 hours and the rain continues to fall.  Double Mountain
Fork Brazos River at Justiceburg (JTBT2) has risen above action
stage already but appears to have crested from its initial rise.
Other sites are expected to begin to rise with forecasts already out
for Seymour (SYMT2) and the Clear Fork near Roby (ROYT2).  Other
sites are expected to rise as the rain continues to fall.

...Guadalupe Basin...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Bloomington
(DUPT2) has fallen below criteria.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions
noted in specific basins in previous discussions..

Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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