Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271638
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CST MON FEB 27 2017

                  VALID FEBRUARY 27 THROUGH MARCH 4

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

This Monday morning a dryline is in place in western Texas. The
atmosphere is humid and unstable across the eastern half of Texas.
This general situation will continue through Tuesday evening, which
will result in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms during
this time. Basin averaged rainfall amounts should generally be
light to moderate, with any heavier amounts more likely near the
Louisiana border. Flooding concerns are not anticipated from this
rainfall.

An upper level disturbance is approaching the Rockies from the
west. Heavy snow has begun in the mountains of southwestern
Colorado. Snowfall can be expected to spread in coverage
in the mountains of western Colorado and New Mexico today, and
continue through Tuesday night before tapering off. By Tuesday
evening the upper level disturbance should be over Colorado and will
quickly cross Kansas Wednesday morning. An associated cold front
will pass through Texas, pushing showers and thunderstorms
southward to the coast by noon Wednesday. Behind the front, high
pressure will result in cooler and dry conditions throughout the
WGRFC area of responsibility on Wednesday and Thursday. Showers will
be on the increase near the Texas Gulf Coast Friday and going into
the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern
Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of up to 0.25
inch are forecast for much of the eastern half of Texas, with higher
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch forecast for portions of Toledo Bend
Country in far eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado and northwestern
New Mexico. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for much of
the southeastern half of Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch
are forecast for much of the Texas Gulf Coast, and higher amounts of
0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas.

Rainfall continued to improve the soil moisture conditions across
much of Texas. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas showed the
area considered to be abnormally dry was at 8.4%.  Also, 2% of Texas
was experiencing moderate drought conditions and  less than 1% was in
severe drought. In New Mexico the drought monitor shows around 13% of
the state experiencing  abnormally dry conditions, with 2.5%
remaining in moderate drought. The rainfall forecast the next few
days will not produce significant runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers in Texas continue to recede after responding to last weeks
rainfall.   Out of bank flows continue in portions of the lower Brazos
basins   No significant rainfall is forecast
across WGRFC in the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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