Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171659
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CST FRI NOV 17 2017

                VALID NOVEMBER 17 THROUGH NOVEMBER 22

...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND OR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper air disturbance moved across Texas into Arkansas the past 24
hours. This disturbance encountered some more humid air and generated
some light rain or drizzle from northeast into central and deep south
Texas. Most rainfall amounts were light, but a few locations around
Corpus Christi received more than 0.75 of an inch.  As the upper
disturbance moved east the rainfall ended overnight.  Meanwhile, the
higher elevations of northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado
received wintry precipitation as Pacific moisture flowed eastward
ahead of the next upper air disturbance.  This precipitation will
continue through the day today.  But elsewhere, a ridge of high
pressure over the Desert Southwest is moving over Texas today so
little or no rainfall is expected over Texas and Louisiana.

By tonight and Saturday an upper air disturbance will be approaching
Texas from the northwest.  This disturbance will push another cold
front rapidly southeastward across Texas. This front will produce
little in the way of rainfall.  Perhaps as this front crosses extreme
east Texas and Louisiana Saturday and hangs up a bit over deep south
Texas Sunday it may produce some light rain.  Otherwise, a new ridge
of high pressure will move into the WGRFC area Sunday and will
produce dry weather.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the southwestern
U.S. by Tuesday.  This will put the WGRFC area in a northwesterly
upper air flow.  Within this flow will be a couple upper air
disturbances.  The next upper air disturbance is forecast to move
across Texas on Monday which may produce light rain over southeast
and deep south Texas. However, the only significant rainfall is
forecast to fall over the Gulf of Mexico.  After a brief break, the
next upper air disturbance is forecast to ripple across Texas Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.  Again, light rain is forecast over the
southeast two thirds of Texas. However, no significant rainfall is
forecast over the WGRFC area of responsibility.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern
Colorado into extreme northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for southern Colorado into northern New
Mexico, as well as over extreme northeast Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme east Texas, deep south Texas and
Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of deep south Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southeast Texas into southern Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern
Colorado into northwestern New Mexico, as well as over the eastern
two thirds of Texas and Louisiana.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 46% with around 15% of the state
experiencing moderate drought.  In New Mexico, 21% of the state is
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with 4% experiencing moderate
drought conditions (over the far western portions). Due to the drying
soils and the lack of forecast heavy rainfall, significant runoff is
not expected over the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers across the WGRFC area are below criteria levels and are
expected to remain below criteria levels for the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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