Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 311641
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

                 VALID AUGUST 31 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5

...COASTAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The precipitation continued for another day along the weak
stationary front over north central Texas, but looks to come to an
end today as the atmosphere has mixed out the ingredients of the
front.  Meanwhile, the tropical upper tropospheric trough continues
to try and develop over the eastern Gulf coast of Texas.  This will
allow lift to occur and stream over the coast bringing coastal
precipitation for the next few days.  The precipitation has begun
bringing isolated showers near the Matagorda region. These showers
should not push to far inland and no flooding is expected.

The monsoonal activity should continue out in the western portion of
the WGRFC area.  Otherwise, the upper level ridge will remain
fixated over the rest of the forecast area keeping the weather warm
and dry for much of the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...All WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast
over the next couple days is not expected to create significant
issues.  Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake
levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools
for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs
are well below conservation.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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