Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 131642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 13 THROUGH FEBRUARY 18

...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS LATE
TOMORROW....

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions will continue for the next 24 hours,
as a surface ridge dominates the region.

Later today through tomorrow, this ridge is expected to move
towards the east as an upper level disturbance approaches from the
west. As this upper level disturbance moves across the region late
tomorrow, a cold front is also expected to push through the area.
This will provide sufficient lift and instability with enough
moisture return for rain chances across far east and northeast
Texas late tomorrow into early Monday morning. Precipitation
amounts will be very low, generally around 0.25 inch over a 24
hour period. Therefore, no significant flooding is expected with
this activity.

By late Tuesday, an upper ridge is expected to return over
the area and will once again bring drier weather to the region
through the end of next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for portions of East and Northeast Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat
drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer
than normal temperatures.  As a result, it would take a bit more
rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas,
2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is
expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New
Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly
confined to the western portions of the state.  No precipitation is
expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
CART2 on the Elm Fork is expected to remain in minor flood stage as
dam releases continue to lower their pool elevation. Dam release
changes are expected next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant precipitation is expected over the next several days,
so river responses are expected to be minimal.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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