Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241656
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015



                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An area of high pressure at the surface in the southeastern United
States and dry westerly flow aloft will continue to dominate most of
the region the next couple of days. As a result, cool and mostly dry
conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Southerly flow
at the surface in Texas is increasing low level surface moisture,
which may result in light showers over Texas, particularly on
Wednesday and Thursday.

A strong upper level low has now developed off the Oregon coast. This
is forecast to slowly move towards the southeast and reach Nevada and
Utah early Thursday, and then remain over that general area through
Monday of next week. Based on this pattern, abundant moisture flow
will likely develop and persist over most of the WGRFC area for
several days. By late Thursday, a strong cold front is expected enter
North Texas and then move slowly across the state on Friday. This
cold front, abundant surface moisture, and a favorable upper level
pattern will lead to locally heavy rain beginning late Thursday and
continuing through the weekend. In addition, the weather models are
also forecasting a Pacific tropical disturbance moving up into Mexico
on late Friday/early Saturday. This system could cause some
additional moisture to interact with the upper level storm system
and enhance the heavy rainfall threat over the weekend.

In general, rainfall amounts of up to 5.00 inches are expected for
areas along and north of I-20 over the late Thursday through Sunday
period, with higher amounts closer to the Red River area. We will
continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
forecast for portions of north central and northeastern Texas. MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of southern
Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and for the rest of the northwestern
half of Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
forecast for portions of central, north central, and northeastern
Texas. MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for the rest of
central and northern Texas, and for portions of southeastern Texas,
northwestern Texas, and the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1
inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, eastern New
Mexico, and for the rest of Texas.

Topsoil moisture has increased significantly with recent rainfall
events which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to
occur. That, along with the vegetation becoming more dormant as
the growing season comes to an end, means runoff will be quicker.
Over Texas only 10% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New
Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. Heavy rainfall amounts
of up to 5 inches over several days from late Thursday through the
weekend could lead to some potentially significant runoff because of
the wet soil moisture and cold season vegetation patterns.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
River stages continue to fall across the lower Trinity River.
Liberty (LBYT2) has now fallen below minor flood level.  Minor
flooding is still occurring downstream at Moss Bluff (MBFT2).  Lake
Livingston continues to decrease their releases allowing downstream
river stages to recede.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows with minor flooding continue at various
locations across the Neches River basin.  River stages have crested
and are falling.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent heavy rainfall throughout the Sabine River basin has
generated higher bankfull and minor flood level flows.  These flows
levels are now receding.  Toledo Bend Reservoir will continue
generating power 24 hours per day, 7 days per week at one unit of
power generation.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher flows are occurring on the Navasota River and lower Brazos
River.  River stages have crested and are slowly receding.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soil moisture remains high across many river basins in the eastern
half of Texas because of recent rainfall. Additional heavy rainfall
is expected near the end of this week that could cause another
round of flooding in the headwaters of the Sabine, Neches and
portions of the Trinity.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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