Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241623
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

                    VALID JULY 24 THROUGH JULY 29

...RAINFALL OVER TEXAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A minor change has occurred in the weather pattern the past two
days. This resulted in an increase in rainfall over the northern
half of Texas and western Louisiana.  It also meant there was a
slight decrease in the rainfall over the western portions of the
WGRFC area.  The ridge of high pressure which was over north Texas
and Oklahoma last week has weakened and has re-positioned itself east
of the four corners region.  This will bring continued rainfall
chances over Texas and Louisiana today, but by Wednesday the ridge
will move back east.  This will result in hot, dry conditions over
most of Texas for the middle and end of the week.  There will be two
favored areas of rain after today...along the Gulf coast and over
the western parts of the WGRFC area.

Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture has been abundant from northern Mexico and far southwest
Texas into New Mexico and southern Colorado the past several days.
Most of New Mexico and southern Colorado has observed afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms the past several days, with
even heavier rainfall over portions of northern Mexico and Arizona.
After a slight decrease in the rainfall today and Tuesday the
thunderstorms should return in earnest through the middle and end
of this week, with the areas near the mountains of New Mexico into
southern Colorado being the most favored locations.

Further south, some rain chances will continue over the Rio Grande
valley between El Paso and the Texas Big Bend area.  Diurnal
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over northern Mexico and far
southwest Texas each afternoon due primarily to upslope flow, but
will not be as heavy or as widespread as this past weekend.

Over southeast Texas, data indicates an above normal amount of
moisture is in place, and already this morning showers and
thunderstorms are fairly heavy and widespread over east central
Texas (which are left over from a complex of thunderstorms which
moved through north Texas).  This moisture, combined with the sea
breeze front and an easterly wave of low pressure, will enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
over east Texas and western Louisiana.  Some of the stronger storms
could produce locally heavy downpours. The moisture is forecast to
decrease Tuesday and Wednesday so the rainfall will decrease.
Nevertheless, the pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and near the Texas Gulf coast will likely repeat itself each
one of the next five days.

Rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were heaviest over northern and
central Texas, with the area north of Johnson City getting around
4.33 inches and the region near Bridgeport TX got around 4.00 inches.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for much of western New
Mexico and southwestern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are also forecast from central Texas near Temple and Waco into east
Texas and western Louisiana across the Toledo Bend country.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the northern
half of Texas into Louisiana, as well as over northern Mexico and far
west Texas into most of New Mexico and western Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of
New Mexico, Colorado, and along and near the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for north central and northeast New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle and southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts
of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme northern Mexico just
southwest of the New Mexico boot-heel.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25
of an inch are forecast over most of the remainder of New Mexico and
Colorado into the rest of the Texas panhandle.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for a good part of New Mexico and southern Colorado.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over
a small part of northern New Mexico and a small part of southwest
New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over most of the remainder of the WGRFC area except for western and
deep south Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Due to the
lack of excessive rainfall in the forecast we are not anticipating
significant runoff the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Much higher than normal flows is possible over the next few days as
afternoon thunderstorms continue in the region.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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