Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281658
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1158 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

                    VALID APRIL 28 THROUGH MAY 3

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A series of weather producers will continue to affect WGRFC`s
area into the upcoming weekend. This will result in rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as well as some periods of snowfall
in the higher elevations of New Mexico and Colorado.

The first system will begin with precipitation in New Mexico
and Colorado later today eventually spreading eastward,
bringing showers and thunderstorms into the Four Corners and
east Texas...including the DFW metroplex. The upper level low
lifts northeast by early Friday.

Later Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system is
forecast to move into Texas resulting in periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms with intermittent heavy
rainfall. Rainfall amounts could be substantial for the
ARK-LA-TEX area. This system may hang around through Sunday
significantly impacting east and southeast Texas.

The main system will begin shifting east by Monday with some
residual rainfall expected for the extreme southeastern
sections of WGRFC`s area. Drier conditions finally return
to the region by midweek.

Rainfall totals over much of Texas exceed normal averages for
the past 15-30 days.

                   ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for CO, NM to north
and far east Texas including the DFW metroplex. Heaviest
amounts are forecast for along the Texas Panhandle.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to three
inches are forecast...for central and east Texas...maximum
along the OK-TX-AR borders.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50
inches are forecast for east and southeast Texas...maximum
along the TX-LA border.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50
inches are forecast for central and southern Texas...maximum
along the extreme southeastern TX-LA border.

Soil moisture has rebounded this weeks as an active weather
pattern is producing abundant rain that has once again has
moistened the soils across a good part of the state. Texas is
now categorized as being 20% abnormally dry, with 2.5% in the
moderate drought category. These dry areas are confined to the
Texas panhandle and the far western portions of the state,
with the remainder of the state free of drought. Over New Mexico,
virtually the entire state is remains in the abnormally dry
category, and 44% is in moderate drought. The rainfall in the
forecast over the next 5 days will produce additional runoff over
many portions of Texas. Significant runoff should be expected over
those areas with saturated soils.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
A regular pattern of rainfall across the Trinity River system
continues to generate higher flows and slow recessions throughout
the basin. Several locations are still above minor and moderate
flood levels (TDDT2), (LOLT2). The uppermost portion of the river,
above Fort Worth, is still flowing well above normal with all the
water supply lakes passing inflows to maintain their conservation
pools.   That water is keeping the mainstem of the West Fork of the
Trinity well above normal all the way to Dallas, which controls the
release plans for most of the flood control projects within the DFW
metroplex.  Until the water from upstream decreases, the DFW lakes
are limited on flood pool evacuations, but are releasing as
much as possible given the next rain heavy rain event expected to
begin Friday afternoon overnight into early Saturday morning.  With
the forecast rainfall, minor flood conditions are possible across
the upper Trinity down to Rosser and moderate flooding possible
downstream along the mainstem through Liberty.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) will be falling below
flood stage later this Thursday morning.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall last week generated widespread minor flooding
in the Neches and Angelina River basins. This flooding
continues, but we are slowly recovering. Additional rainfall
expected later this week is expected to generate a new
round of higher flooding late in the week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Currently, minor flooding is limited to the lowest monitored
mainstem point (ROST2) and will remain in minor levels for
another few days as the river slowly recedes.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lakes are trying to lower their levels in attempts to make room for
potential flooding coming so elevated flows are mainly due to
reservoir releases.  Upstream several sites are elevated as Lake
Fork and Lake Tawakoni release and downstream Toledo Bend releases
will push Deweyville into flood stage.

Forecasted rainfall in the long term may have an impact specifically
on the upper portion of the basin.  A lot of uncertainty this far
out but could be an impact Sunday into Monday of next week.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The mainstem has now subsided to bankfull stages and will continue
to fall slowly through the forecast period.  However, rainfall is
expected over the weekend which may impact river levels late weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Unsettled weather is in the forecast for the next 5 days and beyond.
Location and amounts of rainfall will be critical in determining
flood potential. Heaviest rainfall is expected Friday and into next
week.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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