Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211533
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

                    VALID JULY 21 THROUGH JULY 26

...DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT
WEDNESDAY...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level high has intensified and is now centered over eastern
New Mexico.  This feature will remain a dominant factor in our
weather pattern throughout the  coming week.  As it strengthens, it
will shift north into Colorado by midweek allowing an increase in
temperatures over most of the WGRFC forecast area. The forecast will
generally be rain-free for Texas with the exception of continued
isolated thunderstorms along the coast in southeast Texas fed
by off-shore breezes.  The upper level high is expected to remain
stationary for a few days and provide an opportunity for rain to
return to far southeast Texas by Wednesday afternoon.

Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the
south will feed storm activity this afternoon and evening in the
middle of the Rio Grande valley and eastern slopes of New Mexico.
This activity should continue nearly every afternoon through the next
few days providing some potential for convective activity around the
Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas. Rainfall associated with
this system is helping to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the
persistent drought that has plagued the region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for eastern New Mexico due to monsoonal activity.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the
Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas including south central Colorado.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
severe category by 10 points over the past week.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) continues to be above minor
flood stage today. The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is over
flood stage today. River responses elsewhere in the Neches have
been minimal.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level.
Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast
period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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