Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241614
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1113 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017

               VALID SEPTEMBER 24 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29

...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN FORECAST FOR WESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Although dry weather remains in the forecast for central and eastern
Texas today, another round of showers and thunderstorms are in the
forecast for eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle down through
western and southwestern Texas today and over the next several days.
Maximum rainfall totals over the past 24 hours were in the 2.00 to
2.50 inch range with the heaviest reports from Clovis, New Mexico
and Odessa, Texas.

A cold front continues to slowly move from New Mexico eastward
into Texas over the next few days. As this front slowly  moves
eastward through mid-week, and interacts with tropical moisture
rainfall amounts will begin to accumulate resulting in significant
runoff which will impact area rivers.

For today, expect a slight risk for severe weather in New Mexico,
the Panhandle of Texas into western Texas. This weather will spread
continue to slowly spread eastward over the next few days resulting
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with embedded heavy
downpours. Flash flooding was reported after Saturday`s convective
rainfall. Any heavy rain will result in the potential for further
flash flooding in eastern New Mexico and western Texas through mid
week.

The cold front does not exit the south coast of Texas until the
end of the week.

The tropics continue to remain active with Hurricane Maria
remaining a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale and continues to move towards the N at 9 mph. At
this time, this system is not expected to impact any portion of
the WGRFC region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of  0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for most of the
western third of Texas including the Panhandle and for far
eastern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of  0.25 to 3.00
inches are forecast for most of the western third of Texas and
for far eastern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 4.00
inches are forecast for most of the western half of Texas and
for southeastern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 3.00
inches are forecast for most of the western half of Texas and
for southeastern New Mexico.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 21%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, none of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.  Drought relief
for western and southwestern Texas is likely with the forecast
rainfall. There will also be a potential for runoff and flash
flooding with this rainfall as well.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir is currently releasing water for power
generation.  This is causing minor flood levels on the lower Sabine
River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Local rainfall over the last 24 hours has caused higher than normal
flows at various locations on the Rio Grande River between Presidio
and Lake Amistad.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently below
criteria levels.  No significant flooding is expected over the next
five days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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