Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271539
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

                     VALID MAY 27 THROUGH JUNE 1

...WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The past 24 hours were mostly dry, but this Saturday morning a trough
of low pressure has moved into northwest Colorado. This will cause a
transition over the weekend to a wetter weather pattern for most of
the WGRFC area of responsibility due to a return of moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico.  By this afternoon and evening the dryline is
forecast to be active from north Texas into Oklahoma. There may be
thunderstorms which form, but for now the heaviest rain will fall
over Oklahoma.

By Sunday morning the upper air disturbance will shift eastward to
Kansas and push a cold front into Texas.  As this front encounters
better moisture, heavier and more widespread rain is expected toward
the end of the holiday weekend (mainly Sunday night and Monday). Due
to the slow movement of the front, locally heavy rainfall may
result. At the moment it appears the heaviest rain will be in South
Texas, particularly Deep South Texas and the lower Texas Gulf Coast.
However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the location of the
front and mesoscale features and therefore the location of the
heaviest rainfall on Monday. Rain will likely persist throughout the
coming week across portions of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado as
additional upper level low pressure systems move over the region.
WGRFC forecasters will be monitoring rainfall amounts throughout the
weekend and the coming week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of northern
Texas and for portions of southeastern and south central Colorado.
Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for portions of southwestern Texas
and for portions of southwestern Colorado and far northern New
Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for most of southern and eastern Texas. Lesser MAP amounts
are forecast for most of the rest of central, northern, and
southwestern Texas and for portions of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inch are
forecast for portions of South Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch
are forecast for the rest of southern, southwestern, and eastern
Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 2 inch are
forecast for much of southern, central, and western Texas. MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for most of the rest of
Texas, and for southeastern New Mexico and portions of southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Soil moisture conditions have rebounded due to the widespread
rainfall which fell last weekend. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas shows the area considered to be abnormally dry is down to 22%.
And, only 2% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought with less
than 1% of the state in severe drought.  In New Mexico, 24% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions with 7% of the state
in the moderate drought category.  The rainfall the next five days
may be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over the southwest
Texas and the Hill Country rivers, and possibly coastal and
northeastern Texas river basins.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Action stage to minor flooding on the Neches river system is
expected to continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, all other
rivers will slowly fall over  the next day or so. More rainfall
is expected to  return to the WGRFC region Sunday through Wednesday,
which could cause minor and possible moderate flooding across the
Rio Grande Valley and the Hill Country.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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