Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 191613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1011 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2018

                 VALID JANUARY 19 THROUGH JANUARY 24

...A WARM-UP IN STORE WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A warm-up is forecast as the arctic air is being replaced across the
WGRFC area over the next few days.  Drought conditions are expected
to continue through the end of the month with no significant
precipitation forecast over the next week.

A small area of showers and thunderstorms developed over portions
of Deep South Texas and the Coastal Bend this morning.  Once again,
precipitation amounts are forecast to be light through the day,
with the heaviest amounts over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper air
disturbance is forecast to move southeast out over the Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the day.

A ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather to most of the
region tomorrow as a new low pressure system is forecast to move
across the western U.S. and will begin to spread precipitation over
New Mexico and Colorado with some rainfall forecast for portions of
Texas by late Sunday/early Monday. The forecast rainfall will not
be enough to affect mainstem rivers. Temperatures will rebound
across the WGRFC area this weekend into next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.50 inch forecast for portions of Deep South
Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.50 inch are
forecast for areas mainly along and east of I-35.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 79%, with around 41% of the state
experiencing moderate drought and 16% in severe drought. In New
Mexico, 100% of the state is having abnormally dry conditions, with
87% in moderate drought conditions and 12% in severe drought. The
precipitation forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
Higher flows from Toledo Bend are being generated due to cold
weather demands. Info released daily after 10AM until further
notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Area rivers remain below criteria and are expected to continue
with at or below normal flows for the next 5 days, as no
significant rainfall is expected during this time frame.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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