Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 071657
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016

                VALID DECEMBER 7 THROUGH DECEMBER 12

...DRIER AND COLDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RECEDING
RIVER FLOWS THIS WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong cold front made its way across Texas yesterday ushering
in the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. The remnant
boundary may result in a few light showers over deep south Texas
this afternoon and early evening.

A ridge of high pressure will build across most of the WGRFC area
on Thursday into Friday leading to relatively dry conditions, while
the cold temperatures remain in place. A minor upper air disturbance
is forecast to move across Colorado late Friday into Saturday which
may produce some precipitation there. Elsewhere, dry weather is
expected Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures rebound slightly across the WGRFC area for the upcoming
weekend. With the departing high pressure and available moisture,
some light showers are in the forecast for far southeast TX along
the LA border late Saturday night into Sunday.  By early next week
dry and seasonable weather returns, allowing river flows to continue
to recede.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.25 of an inch are forecast from southeast Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
of an inch are forecast from southeast Texas along the LA border.

The rainfall early in November helped to improve (slightly) the
ongoing drought conditions across the WGRFC area. In Texas, the
areas considered to be abnormally dry is at 34%. Also,14% of
Texas is experiencing moderate drought conditions and 3% is in
severe drought, primarily over extreme east Texas. In New Mexico,
around 54% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions,
with 5% remaining in moderate drought. The heaviest rainfall over
the past few days fell over east central and southeast Texas, which
also happened to be the drier areas of Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
High flows are working their way down the middle and
lower Guadalupe River. Rising levels above flood stage
can be expected on the Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2)
and the Guadalupe River near Bloomington (DUPT2). Bloomington
will rise above moderate flood stage late week and into the
weekend.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding continues on the lower San Antonio River.  The river at
State Highway 72 near Runge (SRRT2) continues to rise within
moderate flood levels, but appears to finally be cresting. Higher
than previously expected levels there will lead to moderate flooding
late this week near Goliad (GLIT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent rainfall has caused overbank to minor flood levels across
parts of the Neches River basin. All rivers that went above
criteria are now in slow recession.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rivers in the San Jacinto basin are now in recession. Lake
Creek and the West Fork San Jacinto remain above action
stage.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) will remain near action
stage for the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Widespread rainfall fell over central, southeast and far east Texas
over the past few days. Much of this rainfall was beneficial,
especially in eastern Texas where drought conditions had been
worsening in recent weeks. Heavy rainfall is not expected over
the next five days, so any additional rises from recent rainfall
should be slow and mostly minor.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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