Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 031807
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016
Mostly light precipitation was scattered across upper and lower Michigan
to northern Indiana and northern Illinois. In some lake effect areas
precipitation totals were around a tenth to quarter inch, otherwise
totals averaged less than a tenth inch.
In the forecast...today around a tenth to quarter inch of rain is
expected in southern Minnesota, down across Iowa and Missouri to
southern Illinois. Then by Monday morning this area will spread across
most of our region...generally as snow across the northern half and
transition to rain toward the south half. Precipitation total for Day
Two should average around a quarter inch from eastern Iowa and northern
Illinois to southern Wisconsin, and northern lower to eastern upper
Michigan. The surrounding area should see around a tenth inch of
precipitation along the eastern part of Minnesota to central Iowa, across
Missouri to southern Illinois and up to northern Indiana and lower
The lower soil profile in much of the region is still wet from
the wet summer. Although the upper portions of the soil had
dried out from multiple weeks of dry weather in November, much of
the region is wet again in the upper profile from recent snow,
melt, and rain.
Many rivers across the region had small rises in the past week.
In general, the affected rivers are in recession from recent
bankfull crests. Slow responding rivers in Minnesota continue to
climb toward bankfull stages including the Crow River and the
Mississippi mainstem, which is causing bankfull conditions on the
St. Croix at Stillwater.
The upper Mississippi will see rises over the next week or more
along its entire length to St. Louis. While no flooding is
expected on the major rivers, the flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
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