Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 271812

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
112 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

An occluded low pressure system over the Great Lakes and trailing
frontal system brought wrap-around precipitation to the Arrowhead
of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, Michigan, and portions of
northern Indiana and southern Illinois. The heaviest mainland rain
fell over northeast Minnesota where 1.67 inches was reported near
Ely, MN.  Michigan`s Drummond Island had the highest report of
2.84 inches.

The occluded low pressure system over the Great Lakes will slowly
drop south during the next 24 hours.  Mainly light rain is
forecast over the northeast third of Minnesota, all of Wisconsin,
upper Michigan and western lower Michigan.  The heaviest
rain...between half and one inch...is forecast for the lake
effect-favored precipitation areas of upper Michigan`s Lake
Superior shore and lower Michigan`s western Lake Michigan shore.

...Hydrologic Conditions...
Rainfall last week on already saturated soils is continuing to
cause significant flooding across a large portion of the NCRFC
area.  Areas not affected by the heavy rain but downstream of it
will also see significant flooding...especially rivers across
eastern Iowa.

Major flooding continues along much of the Cedar River from Cedar
Falls and on downstream. The crest reached Cedar Rapids this
morning, and major flooding is imminent for communities further
downstream on the Cedar and on the Iowa River all the way to the
Mississippi River confluence.

The Wapsipinicon River is expected to crest at Anamosa in the next
24 hours at around 2 feet above major flood levels. Routed flows
will cause major flooding at De Witt in the next couple of

The Kickapoo River and the Yellow River are expected to fall
below significant levels in the next 24 hours.

Flooding is expected for much of the Mississippi River downstream
of Dubuque.  Moderate or higher flood levels are forecast from Dam
14 to Dam 19. The crest isn`t expected to reach Dam 19 until early
October, and will make its way downstream with some significant
impacts expected in Illinois and Missouri the following week.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

The NCRFC will be staffed 24 hours until further notice due to
ongoing Major flooding.



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