Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 011217
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
817 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 06Z GFS
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN...WHICH WAS USED TO
POPULATE GRIDS BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL...EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE PERIOD TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE NT2 WATERS NEAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE
WITH NO WARNING HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SEA STATE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE
MWW3/ECMWF WAM FCST VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY FNT EXTNDG E TO W
ACROSS THE NRN NT1 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT PASSES FROM 0139Z TO
0141Z SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT DATA AT 0650Z INDICATES ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE OUTER ZONES OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT DURG THE
FCST PRD. THE 00Z GFS HAS VRY GUD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MDLS...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE USED TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...LATEST RA1 SEA STATE ANALYSES INDICATE WNA VERSION OF THE
00Z WW3 MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED WELL VERSUS THE OBSVD
SEA HTS. ALTHO THE MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PRD...THERE ARE A MINOR DIFFS AT
VARIOUS TIMES...SO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM
WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD IN ORDER TO
SMOOTH OUT THESE DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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