Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 011911
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
211 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...IN THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT ACRS THE NRN
WTRS AN EARLIER HI RESOLUTION 1402Z ASCAT-B PASS CONFIRMED THAT
GALES WERE PRESENT ACRS THE FAR ERN NT1 AND FAR NE NT2 WTRS. PER
THE LATEST OBS BELIEVE THIS AREA OF GALES HAS NOW SHIFTED E OF THE
OFSHR WTRS AS PREVLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE NEW 12Z MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGRMT THAT THE MOST SIG WEATHER FEATURE WL BE AN INTENSIFYING
SFC LOW FCST MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONITE...TRACK NE INTO
THE NT1 WTRS WHL PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFSHR MON...THEN RACE
OFF TO THE NE MON NITE INTO TUE. WITH THE 12Z MDLS FCSTG NRLY
INDENTICAL TRACKS BELIEVE THE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS FCST
TRACK...WHICH IS SPRTD ALSO BY THE 12Z GEFS MEAN... LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS LOW
AND FROPA...AGAIN BELIEVE THE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. THEREFORE TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT DVLPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WL POPULATE
OUR SHORT TERM FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE MR CONSERVATIVE 12Z GFS
10M BL WINDS FOR TONITE AND MON. THEN TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WL TRANSITION TO THE STRONGER 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR MON
NITE THRU TUE. THEN AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST BY THE MDLS TO
MOVE OFSHR TUE NITE WL THEN TRANSISTION BACK TO POPULATING WITH
THE WEAKER 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TUE NITE. THEREFORE PER THESE
WINDS AND WITH THE 12Z GFS STIL FCSTG A STRONG 65-80 KT LOW LEVEL
925 MB JET TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WL CONT WITH THE
PREVLY FCSTD HIGH CONFIDENCE ASCD STORM WRNGS FOR THE OUTER NT2
AND FAR SE NT1 WTRS...WITH NO SIG CHNG ELSWHR TO THE PREVLY FCSTD
ASCD GALE WRNGS. SO ANTICIPATE MAKING MINIMAL SHORT TERM CHNGS TO
THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE DISPARITY BTWN THE NEW 12Z MDLS REMAINS
REL HIGH. VS ITS PREV 06Z RUN...THE 12Z GFS NOW FCSTS A WEAKER
ATTENDANT SFC LOW TO PASS E ACRS THE NRN NT1 WTRS WED NITE...WHICH
IS MR SMLR TO ITS PREV 00Z RUN...WHL PULLING A COLD FRONT OFSHR.
THE 12Z GEM/UKMET/ECMWF ARE SMLR TO THE 12Z GFS BUT FCST EVEN
WEAKER ATTENDANT LOWS. FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE WL CONT TO POPULATE
WITH THE WEAKER 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS WED/WED NITE. THEN THE 12Z
MDLS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING WHETHER UPR LEVEL S/W ENERGY
FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF A BROAD UPR L/W TROF MOVG OFSHR WL
CAUSE ANY SIG ASCD FRONTAL WAVES TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT AS ITS
PASSES S THRU THE NT2 WTRS WED NITE/THU. THE 12Z GFS/UKMET NOW
FCST NO SIG ASCD FRONTAL WAVES AND JUST FCST THE STRONG COLD FRONT
TO PASS SE OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATE THU/THU NITE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE 12Z GLOBAL GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FCST SIG FRONTAL LOWS TO
TRACK NE ACRS THE NT2 WTRS THU/THU NITE WITH WDSPRD ASCD NLY GALE
FORCE BL WINDS (WITH THE GEM FCSTG SM STORM FORCE BL WINDS). FOR
NOW TO BE MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PLAN ON FAVORING THE MR PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS/UKMET SOLUTION FOR THU
INTO FRI NITE. BUT TO HEDGE TWDS THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION
WL POPULATE THU THRU FRI NITE WITH THE STRONGER 12Z GFS 30M BL
WINDS...WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
THEREFORE WL BE MAKING SM SIG LONG RANGE CHNGS IN THE NEXT OFSHR
FCST PACKAGE.

.SEAS...AGAIN THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED A LTL TOO
LOW WHL THE 12Z ECMWF WAM IS A LTL TOO HIGH. THEREFORE AS A
COMPROMISE WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS FOR TONITE THRU
WED. THEN WED NITE THRU FRI NITE WL GO ALL 12Z WAVEWATCH III WITH
SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE DVLPG LOW RACES
OFSHR LATE MON/MON NITE THE 12Z ESTOFS AND 12Z ETSS FCST SMLR
POSITIVE SURGES TO DVLP N OF THE LOW IN ITS STRONG ENELY GRADIENT
WHICH LOOK RSNBL. THEN THE 12Z ESTOFS LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
NEGATIVE SURGE FCST TO DVLP FM CHESAPEAKE BAY NEWD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE IN THE NNWLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG LOW MON
NITE INTO TUE. BLV FOR THIS NEGATIVE SURGE A COMPROMISE BTWN THE
HIGHER 12Z ESTOFS AND LOWER 12Z ETSS LOOKS MR RSNBL.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE MON.
     STORM MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON.
     STORM MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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