Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 271216
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.9W AT 5 AM
EDT WAS MOVING N AT 10 KT. CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE N TO NEAR 32.4N
71.6W BY 2 PM TODAY...TO 37.5N 63.5W BY 2 PM THU...TURN NE TO
40.5N 56.5W BY 2 AM FRI...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NE FRI. SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON HURCN CRISTOBAL. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS TONIGHT INTO THU. A HI
PRES RDG WILL BUILD SE INTO THE AREA THU NITE AND FRI...EXPAND
ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NITE AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E SAT NITE
INTO SUN NITE. ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL MOVE E AND APRCH THE NEW ENG
CST SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD...EXCEPT NOGAPS IS TOO SLOW WITH CRISTOBAL AND UKMET HAS
AN ANOMALOUS LOW NEAR NEW YORK CITY ON SUN NITE. WILL BE FAVORING
THE GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS BECAUSE IT HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/GEM MDLS. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...09Z RP1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SEA HTS ARE
GENERALLY WITHIN A FOOT OF THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL GUIDANCE. WILL USE
THE WNA VERSION OF THE MWW3 FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN DOING A GUD JOB WITH THE SEA HTS ASCD WITH HURCN CRISTOBAL.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS INDICATES A SURGE IN
THE 1 TO 2 FT RNG ALONG THE CAROLINA CST TODAY...WHICH GRADU
DIMINISHES TONIGHT. ETSS SHOWS A SURGE OF LESS THAN 1 FT.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     TROPICAL STORM TODAY.
     HURRICANE TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     TROPICAL STORM EARLY TODAY.
     HURRICANE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM EARLY TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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