Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 300811
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
111 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
TIME PERIOD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF WHEN POPULATING WIND
GRIDS UNTIL 00Z SUN...AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE 00Z UKMET
SOULTION THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD FRONT STILL MOVING ACROSS NRN WATERS ATTM. LATEST SFC
OBS AND ASCAT DATA SHOWING WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS STILL HINTING AT A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING NE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN N AND NW OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ALSO AGREEING IN WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN
THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ADD
25 KT WINDS TO THE FORECAST.

COASTAL TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG NRN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED NWLY FLOW.
LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWING WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 KT RANGE.
MODELS DO INDICATE WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM NEAR PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO NEAR PT CONCEPTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE. IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO
30 KT. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THESE HIGHER WINDS MOVING
UP THE COAST AND AFFECTING THE NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS BEGINNING FRI
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE NRN WATERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
UKMET STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
RIDGE THAN IN PREV RUNS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE UKMET SOLUTION
AFTER 00Z SUN.

.SEAS...BOTH WWWIII ENP AND ECMWFWAVE WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF
CURRENT OBS. SINCE LEANING TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF FOR WIND GRIDS...WILL
ALSO LEAN TOWARDS 00Z ECMWFWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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