Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGPN40 KWNM 270219
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
719 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF POINT ST GEORGE BY
LATE TUE WITH NRLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO
THU AND BY THU NIGHT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PZ6
WATERS W OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO WARNINGS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR WAVE GRIDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO USE THE PREVIOUS GRIDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING
THAT THE COLD FRONT MOVED E OF BUOY 46005 LAST HOUR AND INTO THE
NWRN PZ5 WATERS. A 1750Z ASCAT OVERPASS E OF 127W INDICATED
HIGHEST WINDS TO 20 KT FROM POINT ARENA TO FLORENCE OR. BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE WELL INITIALIZED WITH WINDS THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z MODELS NAMELY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...INCREASING N TO NW WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PZ5 AND NRN PZ6 WATERS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE SRN
OR AND NRN CA COASTAL WATERS. BY LATE WED AND WED NIGHT THE PRES
GRADIENT ALONG THE OR AND NRN CA COASTS SHOULD RELAX AS THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS S ALONG THE CA COAST AND LOW
PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE SE TOWARD THE PZ5 WTRS
FROM THE GULF OF AK. THE 12Z GFS IS EVER SO SLIGHLY FASTER THAN
THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THIS WEAKENING LOW...BUT OTHERWISE THESE
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT INTO FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS WINDS
THROUGH THU NIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE WITH RIDGE SHIFTING S ALONG
THE CA COAST...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL AND INNER OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO S OF PT CONCEPTION FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCY INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF AK
AND PZ5 WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. AFTER FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS...OPENS UP INTO TROUGH AND MOVES INLAND FRI NIGHT THE
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PZ5 WATERS SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH
THE 12Z GEFS MEAN NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AS THE 12Z GFS...THE
STRONGER SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR WIND
GRIDS BEGINNING FRI WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SEAS...BOTH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM APPEAR TO
BE INITIALIZED WELL OVR THE OFFSHOWE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THU NIGHT
THEN THE 12Z ECMWF WAM FRI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER NOLT/CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.