Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 100345
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
745 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z NCEP FINAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CDFNT OVR THE OFSHR WTRS DM WA
WTRS S INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL CA WTRS. TRENDS OF WINDS AT THE
OUTER BUOYS INDICATE FNT HAS BEEN WKNG AS THE ASCD PARENT STRONG
LOW CENTER WELL W OF WA WTRS TURNS NW AWAY FM THE AREA. WK RDG AND
CSTL TROF OTRW DOMINATE CENTRAL AND SRN CA WTRS. LATEST OBS AT 03Z
INDIATE WINDS ARE LIGHT EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN CENTRAL AND NRN PZ5
WTRS ASCD WITH FRONT. 10M WINDS FM 18Z GFS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE.
ON WED THE NEXT FNTL SYSTEM...NOW W OF CA WTRS...QUICKLY
FOLLOWS...BUT ASCD LOW PRES CNTR LIFTS TO N WHILE STAYING WELL W
OF WTRS LEADING TO ANOTHER WKNG FNTL PASSAGE WED. INDICATIONS FM
GUIDANCE IS THAT TRPL PT LOW WILL FORM ON A THIRD FNTL SYSTEM
CLOSER TO WTRS ON THU AND GFS WITH SPRT FM 12Z ECMWF/UKMET AND
CMC GEM INDICATE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FNTL PASSAGE...WITH MORE
WDSPRD WINDS OF 25 KT. WITH 18Z GFS SHOWING LTLCHG FM PREVIOUS RUN
EVEN LATER IN FCST. SEAS BASED ON 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z WAVE MDLS
APPR INITIALIZED CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDS WI A FOOT. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE BASED ON 12Z GFS EXCEPT 12Z
ECMWF LAST PERIOD LOOKS RSNBL WITH FEW CHANGES TO BE MADE.

-------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING CD FNT WAS MOVG EWD INTO THE WRN AREAS OF THE
WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS EARLY THIS AFTN AND SHUD DSIPT TNGT WHILE CONTG
EWD. WINDS INADVOF CD FNT APR TO BE NR 20 KT OVR THE WA/OR WTRS.
ELSW HIGH PRES WAS JUST W OF THE SRN CA WTRS AND THEN DRIFTS N
INTO THE CNTRL CA WTRS LATE TNGT INTO WED. ANOTHER CD FNT WKNS
WHILE MOVG EWD INTO THE NRN OFFSHR WTRS WED. WL HAV WINDS TO 25 KT
INADVOF FNT OVR THE WA/OR WTRS EARLY WED WITH WINDS DMNSHG AS THE
CD FNT CROSSES INTO THE ERN AREAS AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INLAND RDG
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. ANOTHER CD FNT MOVS EWD OVR THE WA/OR WTRS THU
AND THU NGT WITH WINDS INADVOF FNT AGAIN TO 25 KT. YDY AND LAST
NGTS MDL GUID DID SHOW LOW PRES APPROACHING THE NW WA WTRS...BUT
NOW GUID IS FURTHER NW OF THE WTRS. BY SAT A WM FNT APPROACHES THE
WA/OR WTRS AND MOVS OVR THE WTRS LATER SAT AND SAT NGT. MDL GUID
DOES AGREE WELL WITH WINDS INCRSG TO 30 KT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FNT. BY SUN THE GFS IS STGR THAN THE ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER WM FNT THAT MOVS E OVR THIS SAME REGION AND THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE. A CD FNT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUN NGT. PLAN TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF/UKMET WHICH ARE FURTHER W WITH THE CD FNT AND NOT AS STG
WITH THE SWLY FLOW OVR THE NRN OFFSHR AREAS.

SEAS...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM THRU
12Z SUN...THEN USE THE ECMWF WAM AFTWDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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