Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 280326
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
826 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

At this time I don`t plan on making any changes to the current
grids or associated text package. The gradient along the southern
California coast is very near gale force. An area of low pres
will track NE over the next 48 hours and will increase winds
across the PZ5 waters to very near gale force. I will keep
maximum winds below gale...although may need to revisit this
solution in the next package.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The satellite images have continued to show mostly low clouds
across the region while clouds associated with a cold front west
of the region are spreading east. The lightning density map still
has very few lightning strikes over the southern waters and the
SREF model also has PROB 0 for severe TSTMS across the region.
The SREF model also suggest PROB 0 across the forecast waters
through the short term. The latest observations show higher winds
from the west over the northern waters with maximum 30 kt over
the waters adjacent to WA and OR. At 1800Z the NCEP map still has
a trough just east of the north waters while high pressure 1029
MB is 540 NM west of the southern waters with its ridge extending
northeast into the central region. A cold front stretches
southwest across the far southern waters from inland low pressure
1006 MB over southern NV/CA. A fairly relaxed pressure gradient
dominates the southern region.

The models GFS/CMC/ECMWFHR/UKMET have continued to show a fairly
decent initialization with the 18Z surface observations.
However, the models have some problems regarding low pressure
that will move northeast over the north waters. The general
consensus is to weaken the low pressure and relax the pressure
gradient resulting in diminished winds across the region.
otherwise, the models agree on building high pressure to west of
the southern waters in the short term with pressure gradient
briefly tightening over the southeastern waters. A relaxed
pressure gradient will prevail again tuesday night onwards over
the southern waters. Will stay with GFS for this issuance.

.SEAS...The largest seas are over the northern waters with peak
at 17 ft over the western portion. Seas are quite modest
elsewhere ranging between 8 and 12 ft. The wave models NWW3 and
ECMWFWAVE have continued to initialize well with the observed
seas pattern and they are also in good agreement through most of
the forecast period. So will continue with NWW3 for seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw/Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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