Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 291225
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 00Z WED JUL 30 2014 - 00Z WED AUG 06 2014

MID-LATITUDE STAGNATION--IN THE PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN--OFFERS SOME
DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 150W
LONGITUDE.

THE 29/00Z ECENS/GEFS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A
CLOSED H5-TO-SFC LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS
INTO DAY 6 (4/00Z).

THIS ALLOWS REMNANTS OF `GENEVIEVE` TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
AND MAINTAIN A GENERAL TRACK ALONG 20N LATITUDE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

UNFORTUNATELY, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO DEVELOP INVOF 15N 125W (AN
ORIGINATION REGION/POINT) AROUND DAY 3 (FRIDAY)...AND FOLLOW A
TRACK THAT IS A TAD NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE `GENEVIEVE` IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH TIME.

CAN SEE MERIT IN BLENDING PIECES OF THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
WITH THEIR MEANS TO HANDLE THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

PLEASE MONITOR/CONSULT MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING
TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.

VOJTESAK

$$





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