Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 041222
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
821 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 00Z THU MAY 05 2016 - 00Z THU MAY 12 2016

MODERATE TRADES ARE SUPPORTING WINDWARD TERRAIN FOCUSED SHOWERS
TODAY FUELED BY BANDED ISLAND MOISTURE. TRADES SHOULD BE DISRUPTED
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO
EXPECT A MORE SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOUR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT COMPACT AND AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY WILL FORCE THE MOISTURE POOLING AND SHOWER ENHANCING FRONT
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ACTIVITY IN THIS WET PATTERN WITH
THE WEAKENING BUT STILL MOISTURE POOLING FRONT SHOULD PERSIST
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ISLANDS INTO EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK AND GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LINGERING TROUGHING
ALOFT CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF.

SCHICHTEL


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