Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 221238
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
838 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

VALID 00Z SAT JUL 23 2016 - 00Z SAT JUL 30 2016

ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER`S LATEST
BULLETIN, MAXIMUM WINDS FOR TROPICAL STORM DARBY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE WPC ECMWF ENSEMBLE 850 MB VORTICITY AND 850/700
MB RH PROBABILITIES, HAWAII DOES APPEAR TO BE WITHIN A REASONABLE
ENVELOPE TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF DARBY ALTHOUGH ONE MUST TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY OCCUR, WHICH PRESENTLY
WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, BUT THAT CAN OBVIOUSLY
CHANGE.  WHILE CONCERN ABOUT WIND SPEED IS JUST ONE FACTOR,
RAINFALL IS ANOTHER AND THE MOST RECENT GFS FORECAST OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO SHOW PW AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25 INCHES
AT PRESENT FORECAST TO RISE FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING SATURDAY
MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE BIG ISLAND BY 18Z SATURDAY TO A
MAXIMUM NEAR 2.25 INCHES BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THE 2 INCH CONTOUR
SPREADS ACROSS THE OTHER ISLANDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. DARBY`S
INFLUENCE ON HAWAII WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

KOCIN



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