Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211208
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
808 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

VALID 00Z TUE JUL 22 2014 - 00Z TUE JUL 29 2014

REMNANT MOISTURE ONCE ASSOCIATED WITH WALI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NW TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ELEVATED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES
AND SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY,
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN
RIDGING FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS ELEVATED TRADE WIND SPEEDS.
PW VALUES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR JULY. BY
THE WEEKEND, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ITCZ MAY HELP
INCREASE PW VALUES AGAIN BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES INDICATE ONLY
ABOUT 15-20% OF THE MEMBERS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
NEXT MONDAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND.


FRACASSO

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