Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241146
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 00Z FRI APR 25 2014 - 00Z FRI MAY 02 2014

...SHORT TERM...
CURRENT LOCAL FORECASTS AND REASONING OVER THE NEXT 72-84 HOURS
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. PER 24/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE
(ECMWF/GFS)...TRADES BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE ON SUNDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.

MEDIUM RANGE...
THE 24/00Z GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC CYCLE
OFFERED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE FORMATION AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH--FROM 160W
TO 140W BETWEEN MONDAY (DAY 4) AND THURSDAY (DAY 7). OVERALL...THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL BE IN A `RESHUFFLING` PROCESS...AND
TRANSITIONING AWAY FROM ITS `BLOCKY` RIDGE CONFIGURATION ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE HIGH ARCTIC.

THE 24/00Z GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS AGGRESSIVE AT MID-POINT
DAY 6 (30/12Z)...WITH ITS CUTOFF 500MB CIRCULATION A SUBSTANTIAL
DEVIATION FROM ITS ENSEMBLES AND ITS OWN  GEFS MEAN INVOF 30N
148W. SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC 24/00Z ECMWF BY DAY 6
SHOULD YIELD A BETTER TREND OVERALL FOR THE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH
LAT/LONG POSITIONING OF A REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH--RIDGE
PATTERN--ALONG 30N.

VOJTESAK

$$





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