Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 250901
SWOD48
SPC AC 250900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THAT MODESTLY
STRONG/CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BE PREVALENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO LATE WEEK VIA A SLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH DAYS 4/5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK.
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AND AN
ABSENCE OF MORE READILY DISCERNIBLE LARGER-SCALE MECHANISMS
PRECLUDE A DELINEATION OF 15+ PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER SEVERE RISKS ARE PROBABLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY.

ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH
OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST NEAR A FRONT. A SEVERE RISK COULD CONTINUE ON DAY 5/FRIDAY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015



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