Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
984
ACUS48 KWNS 120909
SWOD48
SPC AC 120908

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY
/DAY 4/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDING LIMITED GULF-MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES A 15% AREA FOR THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MIGHT NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE
NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK.

BEYOND DAY 4...MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6. GIVEN GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE ERN STATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO DAY
7...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.