Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 240446
SWODY2
SPC AC 240445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may impact eastern portions of southern New England
Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Relatively low predictability to short wave developments within the
larger-scale flow remains evident in the model output.  In general,
though, the pattern appears likely to remain amplified, but initial
large-scale troughing over the East may slowly begin to lose some
amplitude and accelerate northeastward across the Atlantic Seaboard.
 This is expected to occur as an upstream short wave trough begins
to amplify southeastward across the central Canadian/U.S. border
area and northern Plains, as the crest of large-scale ridging west
of the Pacific coast builds northward through parts of the northeast
Pacific and western Canada.

It still appears that a cold front associated with the remnant
eastern U.S. troughing may be in the process of advancing into New
England, east of much of the middle and southern Atlantic coast, and
through the southern Florida Peninsula by 12Z Wednesday.  It is
expected to continue eastward into the western Atlantic through
Wednesday night, although progression through eastern portions of
New England is becoming a bit more unclear.  In the wake of the
front, generally dry and stable conditions are forecast to prevail
across much of the nation.

...New England...
Portions of the region, particularly eastern portions of southern
New England, may still be located within a narrow pre-frontal plume
of seasonably moist air, with at least weak instability rooted
within the boundary layer or just above the boundary layer.
Coincident with a corridor of 40-60 kt southerly flow in the 850-500
mb layer, the environment may be conducive to the risk for
convection capable of enhancing the downward transport of higher
momentum, accompanied by potentially damaging surface gusts.  It
still appears that this threat could impact the Boston/Providence
area through midday, and the Cape Cod area through Wednesday
afternoon.

..Kerr.. 10/24/2017

$$


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