Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS/GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/MIDWEST/TN VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR-FRONTAL MASS
CONVERGENCE TENDING TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRONG/SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE CERTAIN DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE.

...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIURNALLY INTENSIFY/SPREAD GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN
VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO OTHER SOUTHEAST STATES SUCH AS
MS/AL/GA/NORTH FL. DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...REGIMES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WEAK FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2015



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