Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night
across portions of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong upper-level trough will lift northeast across
the eastern U.S. Thursday, while upper-level ridging over the
central U.S. becomes more zonal by Thursday night. A low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move through the central High Plains late in
the day. Southerly low-level flow will become established over the
central/southern Plains resulting in a northward transport of
partially modified gulf moisture.

...Central High Plains...
A cold front will likely extend from the upper Midwest into the
central/southern High Plains late Thursday as an upslope low-level
flow component becomes established north of the southern/western
portion of the front. Surface dew points in the 50s and steep
mid-level lapse rates should result in at least modest instability
across the central High Plains. Strong/isolated severe thunderstorms
may develop during the late afternoon as ascent associated with the
weak upper-level impulse translates east within the moderately
strong mid-level flow. An increase in warm advection Thursday night
should contribute to MCS development across portions of the central
Plains with a risk for large hail and strong/damaging winds.

..Bunting.. 05/23/2017

$$



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