Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 240732
SWODY3
SPC AC 240731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWRN GREAT LAKES OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. SFC
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S F
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AIDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE
WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
00Z/FRI ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MID MO
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AS A FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN KS ENEWD INTO IA
AND SRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM SALINA KS ENEWD TO DES MOINES IA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN IA AND WI...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NCNTRL STATES MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SEVERE
THREAT COVERAGE.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2016

$$


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