Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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192
ACUS03 KWNS 170452
SWODY3
SPC AC 170451

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Low thunderstorm probabilities will exist along the Pacific
Northwest Coast, across the southern Rockies, and over parts of
Florida.

...Discussion...

Much of the contiguous US will remain convection-free during the
day3 period but a few ares may experience isolated thunderstorms.

1) Pacific NW - Strong short-wave trough will move inland along the
Pacific NW Coast during the latter half of the period. While weak
mid-level buoyancy may contribute to shallow elevated convection
within the warm conveyor, cooling profiles and surface-based
instability may prove adequate for isolated post-frontal
thunderstorms near the coast after 18z.

2) Southern Rockies - Gradual moistening is expected across the
southern Rockies during the day2-3 time frame as higher PW air mass
advances north into NM. Boundary-layer heating should contribute to
destabilization during the afternoon hours and a weak mid-level
short-wave trough is expected to aid at least isolated thunderstorm
development.

3) Florida - Easterly low-level flow (around 2k deep) will continue
across the FL Peninsula into the day3 period as strong surface high
will hold across the eastern US. Weak buoyancy, due to poor lapse
rates, should allow convection to focus near the eastern/southern
peninsula. While much of this activity will remain lightning-free, a
few of the stronger updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for
lightning discharge.

..Darrow.. 10/17/2017

$$



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