Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300731
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL SEE A SEMI-AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. IN THE EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...MT AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING INITIALLY PREVAILS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE FROM
WESTERN/SOUTHERN MT INTO INTERIOR/SOUTHEAST WY AND EASTERN CO...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY. EASTWARD STORM SUSTENANCE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE AIDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT INTO EAST/CENTRAL MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY
EVENING. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT 0-6
KM/ AND BUOYANCY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST ND. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
ASIDE FROM MORE PREVALENT MULTICELLS...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFT WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

...SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OTHERWISE LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND CLOUD COVER/EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL VICINITY.
HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING IN THE NEARBY WARM
SECTOR...AND/OR SEA BREEZE-AIDED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS COASTAL GA/PARTS
OF FL PENINSULA...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 05/30/2015



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