Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT AND THE WRN
DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL IMPINGE ON THE
NRN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES EARLY FRI. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIFFER ON SPEED...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS
ERN MT INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS BY AROUND THU NIGHT. FARTHER E...A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CANADA INTO THE ERN
CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S/E ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE E AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY CONFINED PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ANTICIPATED
IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OWING TO A
LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST. WITH VERY
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...NEAR 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500
MB...POTENTIAL BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME STRONG WITHIN THIS NARROW
CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS WITH WHERE TSTM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ON THU AFTERNOON /ECMWF
REMAINING FARTHER W IN ERN MT/. THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL YIELD WIND PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. THE ERN EXTENT OF
THIS RISK THU EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN.

...CAROLINA PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL W/SWLYS IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP THE REMAINING
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THU EVENING. WITH AROUND 30-35 KT
FLOW AT 500 MB...SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE MAY
BECOME SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/22/2014




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