Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260107
TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260107Z - 260230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WW GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER WRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA...IN FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.  HOWEVER CINH WILL REMAIN STG...SO SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN
OK TO IRION COUNTY...WWD TO BETWEEN FST-PEQ...THEN ARCHING SWD/SSEWD
ACROSS BREWSTER COUNTY INTO BIG BEND REGION.  DRYLINE MAY RETREAT
SLIGHTLY NWWD THROUGH EVENING.

THOUGH MIXED SIGNALS ARE EVIDENT REGARDING SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE
THREATS...NARROW WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
SFC-BASED CONVECTION INITIATION ALONG OR JUST E OF DRYLINE...AND/OR
TRANSITION OF ABUNDANT/SHALLOW/MIDLEVEL CONVECTION CROSSING FROM DRY
AIR TO ITS W TO BECOME SFC-BASED.  00Z DRT RAOB SHOWED STG CAP AT
BASE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 75
DEG F TO SUPPORT 4000 J/KG MLCAPE.  HOWEVER...CINH SHOULD BE WEAKER
ON HIGHER TERRAIN NW OF THERE OVER LOWER PECOS RIVER REGION...WHERE
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ALSO HAS BEEN STRONGER ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY
OF PERSISTENT HIGH-CLOUD DECK.  ANY TSTMS THAT CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED/MATURE BEFORE ENTERING REGIME OF STRONGER CAPPING MAY
ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY WITH EITHER INTERNALLY GENERATED/MESOCYCLONIC
PERTURBATION OR FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGGREGATED COLD POOLS.
 EITHER SUPERCELLULAR OR CLUSTERED/MULTICELLULAR MODES...
RESPECTIVELY...MAY ENABLE SUCH STORM MAINTENANCE.  HOWEVER
ORGANIZATION NEEDS TO BE MAINTAINED LONG ENOUGH IN FACE OF SUCH
CINH.

DEEP SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT...AND CURRENT WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT
CURRENTLY IS KEEPING SRH SMALL ON HODOGRAPHS MAY INTENSIFY SOME IN
NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH ONSET OF LLJ.  HOWEVER...DIABATIC COOLING ALSO
WILL INCREASE MLCINH GRADUALLY.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29460322 29900330 31140340 31290129 31700056 30649990
            29660001 28800057 29100066 29120077 29260079 29380103
            29450109 29510125 29630123 29580132 29760140 29760172
            29780209 29870225 29840235 29750236 29720268 29490278
            29340283 29340288 29250292 29210286 29130302 28970312
            29460322



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