Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022035
NEZ000-KSZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN KS...SRN/ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022035Z - 022300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO INSOLATION IN
THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ARE RESULTING
IN DESTABILIZATION AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX CROSSING THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GIVEN 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SPEED MAX...A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED AND PERHAPS ROTATING STORMS
MAY OCCUR WITH AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND RISK. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE DELAY OF SFC HEATING OWING TO EARLIER
CONVECTION/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...PRECLUDING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40829727 40059601 39289565 38719621 38629726 39179842
            40209923 40759907 40829727




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