Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 231724
SPC MCD 231723

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeast VA...eastern and central
NC...and northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231723Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...There will be an isolated damaging-wind threat with storms
this afternoon.  While present indications are that Watch issuance
will be unlikely, convective and environmental trends will continue
to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development and intensification is
forecast to continue across parts of the mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon hours, with generally limited storm organization. A
mid-level trough is progressing eastward across southern New England
and the mid-Atlantic, with an associated cold front moving
southeastward across the discussion area. Most of the favorable deep
shear associated with the mid-level trough is displaced to the north
of the strongest pre-frontal buoyancy. However, there is a small
area across southeast VA and parts of northern NC where effective
shear around 25-35 kt coincides with adequate buoyancy for somewhat
organized storm structures -- enhanced by elongated low-level
hodographs over the shallow frontal surface. This may be the focused
zone for the most robust convection and most prominent damaging-wind

Otherwise, farther south across the Carolinas where deep shear will
remain weaker, the very moist boundary layer (e.g., surface
dewpoints in the middle 70s) supporting 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE,
with minimal MLCIN should lead to fairly widespread storm
development with an isolated potential for wet microbursts capable
of producing wind damage. Convection-allowing model guidance also
indicates that storms may develop along a sea-breeze circulation
near the Atlantic coast, and other storms may develop east of the
cold front associated with boundary-layer circulations and a
pre-frontal trough. These storms may also be associated with
isolated damaging winds.

The overall lack of overlap of stronger buoyancy and stronger
vertical wind shear, and presence of poor mid-level lapse rates,
will tend to minimize the overall severe risk.

..Cohen/Clark/Coniglio/Darrow.. 08/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34217769 33697961 34308115 35098119 36577896 37177782
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