Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 292035
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Convection over the next couple hour will be the biggest impact
to the forecast. Latest radar imagery shows thunderstorms split
between along the coastal parishes/counties and further inland
along the LA/MS border. The coastal storms are related to
seabreeze boundary while the rest have developed in the region of
some weak shear axis between upper ridges situated west and east
of the area. Majority of this activity diurnally driven and will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating. The rest of the night will
be quiet with few clouds and near to slightly above normal
Looking at the weekend into Monday, expect much of the same as a
broad upper trough slowly shifts east from west of the Mississippi
river to Appalachian Mountains. This will keep the area under
decreased subsidence and allow for showers and thunderstorms to
develop each afternoon. Have kept or slightly increase pops each
day, though only increased the rain chance by around 10% in most
cases. Other change in the next few days was to slightly lower
forecast high temps. It seems obs hasn`t been quite as high as
forecasted so went with a blended fcst temp which dropped them by a
degree or 2.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
The heart of the upper level ridge axis should shift to the west
over Texas and Southern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday placing
the forecast area on the eastern periphery of the upper level
high. This should allow a series of weak upper level impulses to
slide down from the north on the eastern side of the ridge which
should allow for an increase in convective coverage both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Have chance POPs of 40 to 50 percent in place by
Wednesday when the influence of the ridge is expected to be
weakest. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs
climbing into the lower to middle 90s each day.
The ridging is forecast remain in place across the Southeast and
South- Central United States on Thursday and Friday, but an
inverted upper level trough is expected to slide along the
southern periphery of this ridge and across the forecast area.
With an increase in vorticity and forcing aloft, convective
coverage should remain somewhat elevated at around 40 percent or
higher both days. Temperatures will also be near average with
highs climbing into the lower to middle 90s each day. Overall, a
very typical South Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Summer
pattern is expected throughout the forecast period.
Expect mostly VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon. A few
showers have started to develop across the forecast area and we will
carry thunderstorms in the TAFs for all terminals this period.
Convection should continue to develop over the next few hours and
should diminish after sunset. Expect more of the same weather for
your Saturday as well. 13/MH
Aside from thunderstorms, prevailing winds will remain generally
around 10 knots or less with seas 2 feet or less due to a persistent
ridge of high pressure the next five days. Late next week, a
tropical wave could approach the north Gulf coast region, and that
would likely bring a period of more inclement weather. 22/TD
DSS code: Green.
Activities: Jefferson Parish public safety support for Grand Isle..
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 93 74 93 / 20 50 30 40
BTR 75 92 74 93 / 20 50 30 40
ASD 78 93 78 93 / 20 50 30 30
MSY 78 91 78 91 / 20 50 30 30
GPT 79 90 78 91 / 20 40 20 30
PQL 78 92 74 93 / 20 30 20 30