Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 312053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT NATIONAL UPPER LEVEL SYNOPSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
EXITING THE EAST COAST...RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND A TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS WELL INTO
TEXAS. THE RESULT OF ALL THIS LOCALLY IS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ON
TAP FOR TODAY. CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
OTHER THAN LAKE/GULF SHADOW. TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING RIGHT AT
FORECAST HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A REPEAT OF AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG AND PATCHY MODERATE EXPECTED AS THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS BASICALLY
THE SAME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APEX
CROSSING THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA BUT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS MAY LIMIT MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT BY ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT AND STILL EXPECTING HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

MEFFER
&&

.
.LONG TERM... A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THURS AND FRI
AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDING
NORTH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK OPEN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING NEAR THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GRADIENT OF POPS IS SUCH THAT LITTLE IF ANY EXPECTED SE OF MSY AND
SCHC IN NWRN ZONES THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COME BACK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STRONG
FRONTAL LIFT.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY POST FRONTAL.
TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHATS BEEN OBSERVED THIS
WEEK. POST FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING. COULD HAVE
SHOWERS BACK IN ACTION AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS WELL DEVELOPED CU FIELD OVER
THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. MOST CEILINGS ARE IN THE
3K TO 4K FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND IFR/MVFR HEIGHTS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PRONE TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WINDS NOT MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
THE WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FRIDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST
TREND OF BL WINDS SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC AND THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP FCST SPEEDS TO WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  81  63  82 /  10  10  20  30
BTR  60  82  65  84 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  60  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  63  81  68  82 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  62  77  65  77 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  61  79  64  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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