Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 290930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
430 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Some patchy fog in areas where rain occurred yesterday. A sfc high
will settle over the area today causing winds to ease. This will
also allow only localized microscale influences to provide the
only support for developing any sh/ts. Since winds will be
weak...sea breeze and lake breeze should be able to develop by
afternoon. These processes may be able to produce some activity
over coastal Miss and eastward but better chances should exist
where the lake breeze meets the sea breeze on the south shore of
Lake Pontchartrain. Exactly where this occurs will be the
question. Will increase rain chances to 30% for the entire south
shore areas for this reason.

Monday will find the sfc high over the northern gulf supplying a
southwest wind flow over most of the area. A moisture gradient
will also develop roughly along the Red and Miss Rivers. A sea
breeze should develop along the south facing shoreline of LA. The
sea breeze will move northward running into the moisture gradient
by late afternoon. Southwest winds forcing moisture up this
gradient along with the sea breeze boundary should be capable of
keeping sh/ts going even after dark until around 10pm Monnight.

The moisture gradient should remain in roughly the same location
Tuesday and Wednesday. We could still see a few sh/ts develop
Tuesday but Wednesday will have some added supression to bolster
the high that will slowly move east. This extra suppression will
help reduce rain chances to the lowest percentage of the next
seven days. Monday through Wednesday look to be some very warm
days for those with no cloud cover and no rainfall. With the added
heat causing better cape values Monday through Wednesday...isolated
severe ts could be possible.

A cold front will move toward the area by next weekend. No
indication yet if it will move through or not but it will provide
better support for sh/ts coverage Thursday through at least



Main issue for the rest of the overnight hours will be light fog at
or near several terminals along with lowering ceilings at times. The
fog is likely to cause MVFR conditions while IFR or LIFR conditions
may be experienced for short periods of time due to ceilings of less
than 200 feet. After sunrise, expect VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the day today.



High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. With the core of the high closer to the area today, winds
will be lighter than they have been for the last few days. Variable
winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist today. Seas will
be 2 feet or less.


DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  90  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  89  69  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  89  73  90  73 /  30  10  30  10
GPT  89  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  86  67  90  72 /  20  10  20  10


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