Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 192026
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure at the surface over the eastern third of the country
with upper ridging over the middle and lower Mississippi River
Valley this afternoon is getting squeezed by a trough over the
Rockies and Hurricanes Jose and Maria to the east. Even with local
precipitable water values this morning near 2 inches, convective
coverage has been rather isolated across the area today. Most
areas have reached the 90 degree mark again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, no significant
changes to the forecast for the remainder of the work week.
Isolated to scattered convection each day during the diurnally
favored times of late morning through late afternoon. Little day
to day change in temperatures away from those areas that receive a
poorly timed thunderstorm. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

A bit of a weakness in the upper pattern may allow for a little
better areal coverage of convection over the weekend, but we`re
only talking 40-50 percent even at that point. Ridging rebuilds
back into the local area for Monday and Tuesday, and may not see
much more than isolated afternoon convection. Any trend in
temperatures would only be very slightly downward, and may have
more to do with cloud cover and slightly shorter days.

Medium range models start diverging by midweek as the ECMWF digs
a fairly deep trough across the eastern half of the country, while
the GFS shows ridging. Won`t make major changes to forecast
trends at this point, but if the ECMWF solution verifies, we`d be
looking at cooler weather for the end of next week. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Some scattered showers and storms this afternoon, but coverage is
low and should only impact terminals temporarily. Patchy fog
possible early Wednesday morning, mainly at MCB and ASD.

Krautmann

&&

.MARINE...

Not much in the way of concern over the marine areas through the
end of the work week. Could see a little more steady easterly
flow, perhaps as strong as 10 to 15 knots, for the weekend into
early next week, but do not expect conditions to deteriorate
enough to require Exercise Caution headlines. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  70  90 /  30  30  20  30
BTR  73  91  72  91 /  30  30  20  30
ASD  73  91  72  89 /  20  30  10  30
MSY  76  90  75  90 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  74  89  73  89 /  30  20  10  30
PQL  72  89  71  89 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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