Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35


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