Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 270902
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
402 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Few showers left along the cold front currently moving through the
area this morning. Most activity started near or over the northern
part of the area and moved northward before deepening into
strongly severe thunderstorms. This cold front will stall today
from near Pensacola to the mouth of the Miss River. This boundary
will then begin to retreat back to the north as a warm front
tonight bringing the much higher dew pt values back to the area
for another round of humid conditions through Sunday. Dry air will
once again be brought inot the area as another much stronger cold
front moves through Sunday night. It will be this front that will
cause most of the issues for the weekend.

Southerly gradient winds ahead of the front will rise to around
20 mph by Saturday morning and further rise to around 25-30 mph by
Sunday morning. Gusts for both days could be as high as 35 mph
for most areas but may be higher on the lee side of water bodies
and marsh areas. This may prompt the issuance of wind advisories
for the entire area Saturday and/or Sunday. These winds will also
be evident over a large fetch of the gulf. Winds on the back side
of the current front will not cause water levels to subside much.
Southerly winds ahead of the next front will cause further piling
of water along the coast which could result in coastal flooding
of at least 2 feet or more above normal levels starting Saturday
and reaching a peak by Sunday.

Most of the inclement weather associated with this system should
begin to enter the area around sunrise Sunday and exit the area
before sunrise Monday. Even this far out, there looks to be some
strong evidence of severe thunderstorms during this time frame.
And this could be widespread with all modes of severe
thunderstorms possible.

.LONG TERM...
Northerly winds on the back side of the weekend front will usher
in some much needed cool dry air Sunday night into Monday. Some
interesting features showing up in global solutions for the middle
of next week. The Euro especially would like to break off a piece
of energy associated with the strong front that moves through the
previous weekend and rotate it back into the area via the
easterlies. This would be due to a stronger ridge building over
the southern portion of the east coast. The GFS does not agree
with this at the moment. The differences are due to the southern
extent and progressiveness of the polar jet rapidly digging
through the foothills and plains via individual model solutions.
Regardless, there looks to be another deep system that will
develop near the area by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are exiting the forecast area this morning. MVFR to VFR
conditions are expected through the early morning hours before all
site improve to VFR conditions for late this morning through the TAF
period. 13/MH


&&

.MARINE...

Today we will be in between systems over the waters as a cold front
continues to push through the waters. Winds will be more variable
and fall to 10 knots or less with seas around to 3 to 5 feet in the
Gulf and 1 to 2 feet in the sounds and lakes. Things change quickly
as strong onshore winds will develop tonight and gradually increase
through the weekend as a low pressure system intensifies over the
Plains states. Expect to see sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots on
Friday and Saturday before rising to 25 to 30 knots on Sunday.  Seas
will also increase from 4 to 7 feet on Friday to 9 to 12 feet on
Sunday. Above normal tides can be expected over the weekend due to
the persistent onshore flow.  A cold front associated with the front
will sweep through Sunday night and winds will shift to the
northwest at 20 to 25 knots Sunday night into Monday morning.  As
the high settles over the area Monday afternoon, offshore winds
should quickly diminish 10 to 15 knots and seas should decrease from
5 to 8 feet in the morning to 4 to 6 feet by the afternoon. 32/13

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Green.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...None.

Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN  = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE   = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
         visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
         Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
         Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED    = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
         tropical threats; events of national significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  64  85  72 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  81  66  87  73 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  81  69  84  73 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  82  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  80  72  81  75 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  82  69  82  72 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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