Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 190839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017


At the surface, high pressure off the Virginia coast extends
southwestward into east Texas. An upper ridge is currently
centered over the Great Plains States. Only some high cloudiness
moving across the area. Temperatures showing quite a wide range
across the area depending on proximity to very warm water.
Temperatures ranging from 51 at Bogalusa to 76 at Boothville.



High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move
eastward over the next couple of days. This will allow moisture
levels to finally increase as easterly winds gain a southerly
component. Could start to see at least scattered showers south of
Lake Pontchartrain as early as Friday night, with showers/storms
becoming likely across much of the area by Saturday afternoon.

High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s through
Saturday, which is about 5-8 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will gradually moderate, with all areas in the 60s to lower 70s by
Saturday morning. This is a good 10-15 degrees above normal for
mid October. 35


Unfortunately, while the short term part of the forecast was
fairly straightforward, the long term portion is not. ECMWF and
GFS operational runs having difficulty resolving their differences
at 500 mb, with the GFS a good 12-24 hours faster at 500 mb by
Monday morning. Similar differences exist at the surface Sunday
afternoon. Previous forecast package was based close to the GFS.
That solution had a local frontal passage late Sunday or Sunday
night, and don`t see any major reasons to make a switch. Only
question here is which model busts on Monday, as GFS is pretty
much dry with the ECMWF carrying likely POPs for some portions of
the area. In coordination with surrounding offices, will carry
precipitation in the Monday forecast giving at least some credence
to the slower solution.

Once the frontal system clears the area, cooler weather returns
with temperatures near to below normal after Monday. Will go with
a middle of the road solution on temps, as it appears that the MEX
numbers might be a little too cool. 35



VFR category conditions are expected at each of the terminals
throughout the TAF forecast period. 11



Moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will continue across
the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will result in
exercise caution conditions that may flirt with small craft advisory
criteria at times, at least over the open Gulf waters. The winds
will ease and shift to the southeast Sunday in advance of a cold
front that will move through the coastal waters Sunday night into
Monday. Moderate offshore flow will develop in the wake of this
front for the early part of the next work week. 11



DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  80  57  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  82  58  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  82  59  84  66 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  81  68  83  71 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  81  62  83  68 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  83  59  84  66 /   0   0  10  10



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