Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 042037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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