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770
FXUS63 KJKL 261952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
352 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

Surface conditions across the region currently feature strong
surface high pressure right over the central Appalachians. This is
apparent even this afternoon as increased gradient is seen over
the east coast with Maria passing by and also over the west with
the next trough approaching. This has increased southerly flow and
while winds have remained light, this will bring slightly more
moisture into the area. Thus will expect a bit more fog in the
valleys across the area tonight into the morning hours.

The next mentioned front will approach the area by Wednesday
afternoon but with high pressure holding , this feature will begin
to dry and shear out with only a few sprinkles expected.
Northwesterly flow overnight Wednesday night will bring an upslope
stratocumulus type event and have adjusted the cloud cover to
reflect this. The dry airmass in place will bring into the
question the extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with a
continued blocking type pattern in place with the jet stream
continuing to be displaced to the north. Ridging remains in place
along the Gulf Coast as well and extending into the TN Valley. By
Friday night, the strongest trough will dive south through the Mid
Atlantic bringing another front through the area. However, once
again it appears the most that will come of this feature will be a
few sprinkles and some cloud cover. The Super Blend continues to
maintain and dry forecast through the entire extended. In fact,
the air mass ushered in behind the front on Thursday will keep
temperatures near average through the rest of the extended if not
slightly below average.

Another wave attempts to break down the building high on Monday
but as of right now, models are showing it pretty weak with precip
drying out as it pushes into central and eastern Kentucky. After
this, both the GFS and Euro show the surface high building in
stronger over the eastern CONUS. Will keep it dry for the entire
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

High pressure remains in control across the area through the TAF
period. Thus will expect light and variable winds. However, the
flux of some low level moisture may lead to some slightly worse
fog development towards dawn so have put some fog at the TAF sites
for tomorrow. Burn off should be in place by 13Z with the
development of a 4 KFT scattered cloud layer with the days
heating.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER