Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020042 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALL TOGETHER. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE CLEARING IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. WILL WATCH OBS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT MAY BEEF UP THE POTENTIAL WITH NEXT UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ALSO CUT OFF UNTIL AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT POPS BEING INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS REINFORCING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO BREAKS DOWN. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A TRANSITION...AND FLOW OFF THE GULF SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. LOW POPS WERE USED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT ONLY WEAK FEATURES ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOWS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALL TOGETHER. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME -SHRA IN THE VCNTY OF LOZ...JKL FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE ACTIVITY IS SO SHORT LIVED. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND SUSPECT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY FOG THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. EXCEPTION WOULD BE SJS WHERE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG SANDY WATER SHED TENDS TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL OF FOG. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT LOZ AND JKL...LIFR AT SME AND SJS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY...WITH JKL AND SJS BEING MOST LIKELY SITES OR TERMINALS TO BE INFLUENCED. FOR NOW LEFT MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR SATURDAY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION REMAINING CONCERNING COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE DOWNPLAYING THE POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...RAY

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