Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211122 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 622 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 622 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Temperatures will come up quickly this morning as we quickly mix out the inversion with temperatures quickly climbing into the 50s by midday. No change to the current thinking, so forecast remains unchanged early this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Gradient continues to tighten up between a strong ridge exiting to our east and an approaching cold front from the northwest. The increasing gradient has allowed for a nice range in temperatures across east Kentucky early this morning with decoupled eastern valleys sitting in the low to mid 20s and mixed ridges rising through the 40s. The southwest flow will help to pump in some much milder air into the region today with afternoon highs reaching around 60. Surface moisture will also come up through the day and this could lead to a widely isolated shower in the vicinity of the higher peaks in southeast Kentucky (mainly Black Mountain). Will carry a 20 percent chance of rain there although the 00z NAM really the only model supporting the rain chances. The models are in very good agreement regarding the cold frontal passage time and also in keeping eastern Kentucky dry tonight. Based on how temperatures responded behind the front on Sunday, and this being a much milder airmass overall, have gone higher with temperatures post frontal late tonight. The ADJMAV was a good starting spot for the lows tonight. NAM and GFS BUFR soundings also support some low clouds with an inversion post frontal and the CONSMOS was a great starting point. Unlike the past several stratus events, this time around, we should see a nice surge of dry air arrive on Wednesday and that should scour out any low clouds likely by midday or early afternoon. With sunshine returning by the afternoon, we should see highs climb through the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to rule across the CONUS through the period. Ridging will remain the dominant feature across the Desert Southwest, with persistent troughing across The Pacific Northwest and the East. Differences crop up more in the smaller scale features, so a blend of the guidance was a good compromise. The resultant weather for eastern Kentucky will be dry, with temperatures overall averaging below normal. Cool high pressure will build in across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s, with lower 20s in some of the cooler eastern valleys. Highs for the holiday will be in the mid to upper 40s. The surface high will shift to the east through Friday morning, with eastern valleys likely dropping into the mid 20s once again, as southwest winds engage. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north, closer to the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures will average near normal across our area, with highs in the mid 50s. Another cool down will follow this front, with highs reducing to the 40s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 622 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 VFR conditions will be seen through midnight tonight. Winds will increase out of the southwest today as the gradient increases ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible. Gusts will subside this evening. As the front pushes through late tonight, we will see a wind shift to the northwest and some low clouds may develop into the area. Low clouds will fall into the MVFR category. The low clouds will quickly erode after daybreak Wednesday, with VFR conditions returning.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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