Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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358 FXUS63 KJKL 291210 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 810 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on radar, observation, and short term model trends. This fine tuned the timing of the area of showers moving across the CWA at this time. These should diminish as they near the WV and VA borders. A lull in the late morning to early afternoon is anticipated, followed by redevelopment by mid afternoon. Any lingering fog will lift and dissipate by 9 AM EDT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 405 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Early this morning, a ridge of high pressure was centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over the Southwestern Conus. A closed low was over Eastern Canada with troughing extending south to the TN Valley. Weak shortwaves are moving through the flow, with one currently nearing Eastern KY with another more prominent shortwave slowly moving toward the Mid MS Valley region. Meanwhile a nearly stationary surface frontal zone extends from the Mid Atlantic states to a weak wave of low pressure over Eastern OH and then extending southwest to the north of the OH River and then into the Central Plains. The airmass over the Commonwealth is currently not as most as 24 hours ago with PW on the order of a quarter of an inch less at present. Skies had become mostly clear to clear during the evening and this has combined with moist low levels from recent rain and light winds to lead to low stratus and fog formation. Dense fog has developed in some locations, but this has begun to lift with just stratus remaining in some locations in the west as some mid level clouds move into the the area or develop. Recent radar imagery indicated some showers had developed in the Casey County vicinity, but this development is not at least as of yet as substantial as suggested by the 7Z HRRR. Some isolated to possibly scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm may develop prior to dawn and slowly move east across the area. Recent short term model guidance indicates that what manages to develop should dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. During this same time, lingering fog and stratus should also begin to lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise. A generally diurnal peak in convection is anticipated today, however, during the afternoon to early evening hours in advance of one or more weak shortwaves moving through the flow. The strongest upstream shortwave is expected to rotate into the OH Valley tonight and move east of the area on Saturday. Thus, convection even at night, especially late tonight cannot be ruled out as the area is expected to remain in the warm sector through the end of the period. Scattered convection, again peaking during the afternoon to early evening is anticipated again for Saturday. The moist airmass in place should lead to considerable cumulus development and scattered showers and thunderstorms today with mid and high clouds also passing by from time to time. All of this should again limit diurnal ranges today with highs again near if not a degree or two below normal for highs. Lows will average a couple of degrees above normal with the moist airmass in place. Highs on Saturday should average near normal for the end of July. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Aside from a brief dry period Tuesday and Tuesday night, the extended will feature daily and nightly chances of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky. The focus of these showers and storms will be a frontal boundary that is forecast to stall across the region. A few weak disturbances moving along the front will also help spark showers and storms across our area, particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating. A warm and moist air mass will remain in place during the period, making for very muggy conditions. Daily high temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s, with nightly lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 An area of showers is moving across the area at this time. This should bring IFR or MVFR as it passes. Otherwise, outside of this convection, a gradual improvement through MVFR and into the VFR range is expected in all locations by 19Z. Scattered convection is then anticipated, with reductions to MVFR if not briefly IFR possible, but confidence in timing and extent was too low to include more than VCTS at this time. Convection should wane by the 22Z TO 2Z period, with fog again possible. However, lingering clouds make confidence in other than MVFR reductions low at this time.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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