Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY. GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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