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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 110533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 758 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS. THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOCATIONS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER REMAINING HAVE DROPPED WELL INTO THE 20S WHILE
RIDGETOPS OUTSIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE
AROUND 30.

MIN T FOR THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOWER READINGS. HOURLY TEMP GRIDS FOR
THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINS WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDDAY ON TUESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURE RISE
THERE SHOULD BE SLOWER IN THE AM FOLLOWING THE COLDER OVERNIGHT
READINGS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SMARTLY INTO EAST
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE SKY AND THE SUNSHINE IS
HELPING TO PROP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE BATTLING CAA ON BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY TO THE MID 30S IN PARTS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALSO DOWN ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. DEWPOINTS
MEANWHILE ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 20S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE EXITING OF THIS
CURRENT NODE OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...THEY AGREE THAT FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS TO KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER NODE OF THE DEEP CANADIAN LOW WILL SKIRT THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEIGHTS BACK DOWN LOCALLY...INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND FOR DETAILS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FOR SKY
COVER AND POPS DID FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BY DAWN. SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL FIGHT THE
CHILL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT THAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE CWA BY DAWN THURSDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLUNGE
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT TO BASE THE TEMPS AND TD ON THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...CONSALL THEREAFTER. SIMILARLY...BCCONSSHORT WAS USED AS
A STARTING POINT FOR WINDS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AND THE BCCONSALL
AFTER THAT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT SINGLE DIGITS OR ZERO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT DID BOUNCE THEM UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT
NIGHT...GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 30S. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST BY FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW USHERS A MILDER WEATHER INTO THE
AREA. A SHARP TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US WITH
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TO THE NORTH AND NOW TAKES
IT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS TRACK WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...WE MAY
HAVE TO COUNTER SOME DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY AS
WELL...LIKELY CUTTING INTO RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH A GRADIENT
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

BY SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. RAIN WILL PUSH ON THROUGH
FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE DRIZZLE
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND MODELS BEING CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...OPTED TO GO CATEGORICAL
WITH THE POPS. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE BACK OVER THE AREA...BUT UNLIKE THE MODELS INDICATED
YESTERDAY...THEY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SURGE OF MUCH COLDER
WEATHER. THUS...THE SNOW POTENTIAL SEEMS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REMAINING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOOD ICE PRODUCTION...PROVIDING AN EQUAL
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME DRIZZLE. REGARDLESS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY SUPPORT BEING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LINGERING AROUND. REMAINING PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO TURN A
BIT MORE ACTIVE...AND IF ONE OF THESE WAVES TO OUR NORTH BECOMES A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED...COULD CLIP OUR AREA AND PULL SOME COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...IT IS
MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN TO LATCH ONTO ANY DETAILS. FOR NOW...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR