Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251530 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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