Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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110 FXUS63 KJKL 131237 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 837 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- High temperatures will range from near to slightly above normal through next week. - The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist for the next week, especially during afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued at 834 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025 The forecast is updated to reflect the latest radar trends with spotty showers over the area. More development should occur during the day after diurnal destabilization occurs. UPDATE Issued at 1230 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a touch up to the PoPs and Wx through the rest of the night per the current radar images and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs. UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025 00Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure to the south of the state and lower pressure to the northwest. The latest semi- organized cluster of storms is steadily shifting east through the state and starting to impinge on the JKL CWA with gusty winds the main concern. Otherwise, only isolated convection is noted across the area and skies are mostly clear. In addition, just light and variable winds are seen - outside of any of the storms. Currently temperatures vary from the lower 70s in the east where the storms moved through earlier to the still mid 80s in the western Cumberland Valley region. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the sticky lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with an adjustment to the PoPs through the night per the current radar images and CAMs guidance. These relatively minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025 Current surface analysis across the CONUS is quite active, with a surface perturbation moving across its northern half. The main synoptic feature is a surface low tracking across the Great Lakes region. Currently, its positioned over Michigan`s Upper Peninsula. The warm front extends west to east from the lows center, across Canada, and into New England. The corresponding cold front stretches southwestward from the lows center, reaching down to the southern Central Plains. Locally, eastern Kentucky is firmly within the warm sector regime, behind the warm front but ahead of the approaching cold front. This setup will lead to warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow advects warmer temperatures and higher dew points into the region. This is already reflected in current temperatures, which have climbed into the mid to upper 80s. Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, throughout the afternoon, there will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some of these have already started to develop but are short-lived. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today, as this afternoons convection could bring an isolated threat of a stronger storm. Any storms that do develop could bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. However, since shear values are nonexistent to negligible, widespread severe storms are not expected. Showers and storms will dissipate toward the overnight hours, leading to a mostly dry night with areas of fog and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday will bring another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s, with increasing threats for convection as the front finally moves into the region. As with Saturday, strong storms are possible, but shear continues to be lacking; therefore, significant severe weather is not anticipated. Models indicate the front will stall out across the area from northeast to southwest. As this occurs, PoP chances will continue from Sunday afternoon through the overnight into Monday. Sunday night will closely mirror Saturday night, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Overall, the period will be highlighted by rounds of showers and storms, some of which could be severe. Highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s, along with areas of fog. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The long term forecast period features a typical summertime weather pattern in Eastern Kentucky. The forecast guidance suite remains in generally good agreement on the overarching synoptic features within this time frame. Thus, confidence is fairly high that Eastern Kentucky will experience seasonably warm/humid conditions and daily diurnal peaks in shower/storm chances throughout the next work week. The period opens on Monday with the northeastward ejection of the trough responsible for this past weekend`s active weather. As the upper level pattern deamplifies in its wake, the surface "cool front" associated with it is poised to stall out over the forecast area. The lack of upper level dynamic support will reduce the risk for organized severe weather, but daytime heating and convergence along this boundary should yield scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The storms that develop will pose a risk for locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and perhaps some gusty winds. Winds on Monday will have a more northwesterly component to them on the cooler side of the boundary. This favors relatively cooler highs in the upper 80s across northern portions of the forecast area, whereas southern portions will likely be closer to 90. The warmer temperatures in the south favor slightly higher PoPs south of the Mountain Parkway on Monday afternoon and evening, but rising heights overnight should suppress convection after sunset. Expect overnight lows near 70, with slightly cooler valleys and slightly warmer ridgetops. Valley fog appears most likely in the river valleys, but wet grounds could allow fog to form elsewhere. Ridging builds into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon highs warming into the lower 90s on both days in response to rising heights and a return to southerly surface flow. While isolated afternoon showers and storms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday, Tuesday generally looks drier than Wednesday. A series of shortwave disturbances will move through the Greater Ohio River Valley on Wednesday and Thursday, and rain chances increase on these days accordingly. The highest PoPs will remain in the afternoon/evening hours as temps warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s, but some residual cloud coverage could linger into the overnight hours. This reduces confidence in the magnitude of overnight ridge- valley splits and valley fog formation deeper into the forecast period. For now, fog grids were limited to only the deepest river valleys and only minor adjustments were made to the MinT grids. Overall, expect warm temperatures and scattered showers and storms chances each day in the long term forecast period. Said showers and storms may provide some localized relief from the heat each afternoon, but the cumulative nature of highs near 90 and lows near 70 over four-plus days will lead to increasing Heat Risk across Eastern Kentucky. Thus, interests with outdoor plans next week should plan ahead for potential impacts from both thunderstorms and heat. Readers are encouraged to have multiple ways to receive warnings for convection and to take breaks inside if working outdoors for prolonged periods of time. As always, when thunder roars, go indoors. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Although a spotty SHRA cannot be ruled out early in the period, most sites remain dry until this afternoon when some spotty diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA activity once again sprouts about by the afternoon. Have handled this with PROB30 for now given ISO coverage. VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at issuance as fog remained confined to area river valleys. VFR Cu will increase by late morning through the daytime. By late this evening into tonight, some additional ISO SHRA/TSRA will be possible, although the greatest coverage should remain N of the terminals. Have added a PROB30 to account for this potential. Lastly, winds will be light and variable outside of any convection. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...ILN