Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011047 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 647 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS EXPANDED A BIT FROM EARLIER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT CLOUDIER SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. HRRR CONTINUES TO PAINT OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE 06Z NAM HAS ALSO NOW SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 ZONAL FLOW RESIDES ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ZONAL FLOW FOR TODAY WILL MEAN A QUIETER DAY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY...HI RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO MATCH UP TO WHAT THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING. GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY OF HI RES MODELS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CORRIDOR OF POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST PW`S AROUND 1.7 AND VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>15KFT) POTENTIAL MAY EXISTS FOR SOME PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY. THE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL BE TIED TO THE PEAK INSTABILITY HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DYING OFF. THIS WILL YIELD A QUITE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT WE MAY KEEP ENOUGH WIND AGAIN TO LIMIT IT TO SOME DEGREE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THESE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH MODEST 30-40KT BULK SHEAR VALUES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR SOME LINEAR STORM SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN TO START OVERALL. THE NEAR TERM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING OR HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED AND RATHER WASHED OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR TWO IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK INTO THE REGION BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FOR THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON FRI. OVERALL...CONVECTION FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL FLAVOR. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND GRADUALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WED INTO SATURDAY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW HAVING THE GREATER DEPARTURE OF NEARLY 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED. HOWEVER...A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTH MAY BE DOWN TO IFR CIGS. WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ENOUGH COVERAGE OR CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME VERY PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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