Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 081243 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 743 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 743 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Radar returns have diminished across the area, and most of the higher based cumulus is starting to scatter out. As such, removed flurries from the forecast. Also freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends in observations.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 A strong surface high pressure ridge, stemming from the Arctic center anchored across the Northwest Territories, remains nosed in from the Continental Divide through the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions. Aloft, a deep trough remains poised across the CONUS, with an upper level low moving eastward into Quebec, with a short wave trough moving across the Midwest. In eastern Kentucky, some light radar returns have been showing up for the past few hours, although cloud bases remain at or above 7k feet agl for most locations, with any flurry activity few and far between. Current temperatures are in the low 30s, with some upper 20s invading from far northern Kentucky. Much colder temperatures will continue to be the main story through the short term, as the upper trough gradually shifts east, with a secondary surface high pressure center eventually becoming established across the mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. Today will feature perhaps a few flurries into the mid-morning hours, before clouds thin out and west to northwest winds pick up and turn a bit gusty, as the cusp of the arctic air invades. Highs today will be in the mid 30s, with most marks established by noon. Temperatures will then fall off through tonight, reaching the teens to lower 20s by dawn Friday. Lower clouds, containing some flurries at times, will also move in overnight and will linger into Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 We start the period with high pressure in control at the surface. Any residual low clouds remaining from the day should erode pretty quickly Friday evening but some mid and high clouds may interfere with radiational cooling conditions across our northern counties. Nonetheless, it will be cold with lows in the teens. Saturday will then be cold but with some sunshine through increasing high level cloudiness. These clouds should thicken up Saturday night but temps will likely still drop toward 20 in our eastern valleys. Our next weather maker is still due to begin affecting our area on Sunday as a shortwave tracks across the Midwest and Great Lakes region sending a surface low across the Ohio Valley to our north. Models are a tad slower with the onset of precip with this system when compared to last night and the bulk of any precip is now shown to enter the scene late Sunday into Sunday night. Temps are cold enough along and north of I-64 that it is possible a little snow may mix in Sunday evening before warm advection kicks in and temps actually warm overnight. The 08/00z ECMWF continues be slower in exiting the rain on Monday and that slower trend will be found in our forecast. Confidence on forecast details tank beyond Monday. The 08/00z GFS brings one heck of an arctic front through the area dropping temps from the 50s Tuesday into the teens on Wednesday. The 08/00z ECMWF is much tamer, keeping the real cold air to our north. The SuperBlend looks like a great compromise and will be followed. This results in a small chance of rain or snow Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then a small chance of snow on Wednesday with highs dropping from the 40s on Tuesday back down toward freezing on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 743 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 VFR conditions will continue through the day, with a scattered to broken cloud deck ranging from 6-8k feet agl range dissipating through the mid-morning. Skies will clear out into this afternoon, before clouding up again towards this evening. Ceilings will lower down to MVFR through the overnight and early morning hours on Friday. Northwest winds of around 5 kts will become west to northwest at around 10 kts by noon, with gusts of around 15 kts at times. Winds will then diminish to around 5 kts by dusk.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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