Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291938 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY ...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND 6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT ...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT. THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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