Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271220 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 820 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 820 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Convection remains out of the forecast area at the moment. Have freshened up the hourly temperatures...dew points...and sky cover to account for the latest trends in observations. Of the most interest is the last several runs of the HRRR, which is suggesting isolated to scattered convection at best across most locations east of I-65, as it has trended further south with the better areal coverage. I am not ready to give up yet on higher pops across our area given the significant low level moisture and at least weak forcing. Did delay the better pops a bit more until later this morning for now.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary aligned from the eastern Great Lakes down to the Oklahoma panhandle. High pressure is centered across the western Atlantic, with surface ridging nosed in across Delmarva and into the southern Appalachians. Aloft, the upper level ridge center remains across Lousiana, with an upper level low moving across central Ontario, allowing for cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes. Organized overnight convection out ahead of the surface front has all but died off, with still some scattered activity occurring across the Cumberland Plateau and eastward across Tennessee, thanks to passing outflow boundaries and orographics. Eastern Kentucky has remained fairly quiet overnight, besides a few showers and thunderstorms affecting locations west of I-75 as well as north of the Mountain Parkway earlier. A very muggy air mass is in place, with current temperatures ranging from the low to mid 70s. A weak short wave trough will traverse the cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes today, allowing for some weak forcing into the Ohio Valley. This will also help push the surface front southeast towards the Commonwealth today. Expect numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to blossom across the area, especially between 15 and 21z. PWATs of near or just above 2 inches continue to be supported, with moderate instability in place. Will continue to highlight the possibility of isolated flash flooding as well as strong wind gusts, especially if some storms can undergo precipitation loading. Storm motions will be around 10 kts today; however, the direction also veers with time during the day, allowing for less of a threat of storms aligning parallel with the surface boundary, cutting down on the training potential somewhat. Convection will wind down from northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Highs today will be hampered by cloud cover, generally peaking in the mid 80s. A few upper 80s will be possible in the northwest late in the day, if clouds can thin enough. A few spots in the far southeast may also peak in the upper 80s before convection initiates. Lows tonight will get down into the mid 60s, with at least some patchy fog likely. On Tuesday, a secondary cold front and mid to upper level short wave trough will be moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Will maintain slight chance pops in the southeast, where enough low level moisture may linger to allow for a few pop ups during peak heating. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, although dew points will be thankfully dropping into the low to mid 60s in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 The extended period will start with a few showers and storms lingering along the Virginia and West Virginia borders, as a cold front moves off to the east of the area. By early Tuesday evening eastern Kentucky should be rain free. The rest of the week will feature a drier and cooler period from Tuesday night through Friday, as a strong ridge of high pressure settles over the region. The residents of eastern Kentucky can expect near normal or slightly below normal temperatures, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, and light winds for the middle part of the week. The next chance good chance of rain in the extended is expected to arrive Friday afternoon, as an ill defined frontal boundary drifts across the area. This boundary will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through late Sunday night. The precipitation should gradually taper off as the front drifts slowly off to the south and east. Valley fog will also be possible each night in the moist conditions, particularly near bodies of water. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to max out in the low to mid 80s each day except Wednesday, when a cooler air mass will only allow the mercury to max out in the upper 70s for most of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Precipitation chances will ramp up during the day, with the best chance occurring from late morning through the mid-afternoon or 16 to 22z as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Have used some TEMPO groups during this time for the more sustained convection, with at least a period of MVFR if not lower. Convection will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast by late this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Will generally maintain VFR conditions thereafter; however, fog and or stratus may be a good bet depending on clearing late tonight.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.