Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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933 FXUS63 KJKL 301940 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 18z sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pressure through the Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians. Most of East Kentucky is in the southwest quadrant of this system and pretty much dry slotted keeping the showers and any storms west and northeast of the CWA. Plenty of clouds and morning fog slowed the temperature rise through eastern Kentucky today, but with more clear breaks the sunshine is helping to send temperatures into the low and mid 60s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the low 50s for most places with the winds light and variable. The models are in good agreement aloft with their handling of the fairly deep closed low wobbling over the Ohio Valley through the weekend. They all have the low tracking slowly due north with some minor divergence in solutions late in the short term. The GFS moves the low to the Great Lakes a notch quicker than the others, but strength is similar from all models. They all, also, have ample mid level energy rotating through the low over head. Given the agreement will favor a blended solution with the HRRR and NAM12 leaned toward in the near term. Sensible weather will feature another cool evening and overnight as the clouds partially break up. This will make for varying amounts of radiational cooling and better radiational fog formation at times overnight. The latest CONSShort guidance keeps the more extensive and thickest fog just to the west of the CWA tonight. For this reason, will allow some mainly valley fog in the grids toward midnight and through dawn with some locally dense patches in the deeper valleys toward 12z. The next pinwheel of energy aloft may bring some light showers to western parts of the CWA overnight and into Saturday morning, but most of the area should remain dry. Look for the fog to burn off Saturday morning and a bit more sunshine should allow for temps to reach the upper 60s to low 70s most places. Similar conditions are anticipated Saturday night with more valley centric patchy fog late. Also, a couple stray showers may move in late Saturday into Sunday morning as the upper low and sfc low start to move out. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as a starting point for most grids into Saturday morning with the SuperBlend used thereafter. Made only minor changes to the T grids based on our terrain with the clouds around. As for PoPs - ended up on the low side of a MOS blend through Sunday morning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The forecast for the extended should feature isolated rain showers moving across eastern Kentucky, as an area of low pressure aloft moves across the lower Ohio Valley region on Sunday, a period of dry and pleasant weather, and possibly another round of rain Thursday night into early Friday. A cold front would be the trigger for any rain we may see toward the end of next week. Temperatures during the period are expected to max out in the 70s each afternoon, and bottom out in the 50s each night. A few spots may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday through Thursday, mainly along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The lower cigs and last of the fog are clearing out of the TAF sites ATTM. Expect most locations will go VFR for a time into the early evening hours. However, we will see a round of shower activity move toward eastern Kentucky from the west this evening into tonight, but too much uncertainty remains in timing/spatial extent of this activity to warrant mention for the TAFs at this time. Cloud cover will remain variable through the forecast period with some lowering of cigs anticipated overnight, but still plenty of questions concerning the timing and occurrences of sub- VFR conditions. Fog, locally dense, looks to be a good bet in valleys tonight, but TAF sites will likely be limited to mainly MVFR vis restrictions, at worst, through 13z Saturday. Following this, anticipate improving conditions into Saturday afternoon with mostly VFR cig and vis values. Winds will remain light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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