Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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770 FXUS63 KJKL 261952 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 352 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 Surface conditions across the region currently feature strong surface high pressure right over the central Appalachians. This is apparent even this afternoon as increased gradient is seen over the east coast with Maria passing by and also over the west with the next trough approaching. This has increased southerly flow and while winds have remained light, this will bring slightly more moisture into the area. Thus will expect a bit more fog in the valleys across the area tonight into the morning hours. The next mentioned front will approach the area by Wednesday afternoon but with high pressure holding , this feature will begin to dry and shear out with only a few sprinkles expected. Northwesterly flow overnight Wednesday night will bring an upslope stratocumulus type event and have adjusted the cloud cover to reflect this. The dry airmass in place will bring into the question the extent. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with a continued blocking type pattern in place with the jet stream continuing to be displaced to the north. Ridging remains in place along the Gulf Coast as well and extending into the TN Valley. By Friday night, the strongest trough will dive south through the Mid Atlantic bringing another front through the area. However, once again it appears the most that will come of this feature will be a few sprinkles and some cloud cover. The Super Blend continues to maintain and dry forecast through the entire extended. In fact, the air mass ushered in behind the front on Thursday will keep temperatures near average through the rest of the extended if not slightly below average. Another wave attempts to break down the building high on Monday but as of right now, models are showing it pretty weak with precip drying out as it pushes into central and eastern Kentucky. After this, both the GFS and Euro show the surface high building in stronger over the eastern CONUS. Will keep it dry for the entire forecast package. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017 High pressure remains in control across the area through the TAF period. Thus will expect light and variable winds. However, the flux of some low level moisture may lead to some slightly worse fog development towards dawn so have put some fog at the TAF sites for tomorrow. Burn off should be in place by 13Z with the development of a 4 KFT scattered cloud layer with the days heating. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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