Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FGUS73 KJKL 102035 AAA
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-237-
111015-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL
CAUSE SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AND MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE ANY STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD...SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR THREAT.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...LARGER CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT BE EXTREME. BUT UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BASICALLY CONVERT INTO
RUNOFF...ADDING TO THE THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING.

THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...SO
STAYED TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

$$

RAY/GREIF




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