Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS71 KTIR 031735
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1235 PM EST Tuesday, March 3, 2015

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Warm air advection will generate rain across much of the basin today.  An
approaching cold front will generate more significant precipitation
beginning tonight and lasting all day Wednesday into Wednesday night as the
features stalls just south of the Ohio River. Rain will be heavy at times
especially in the southern basin. Much colder air behind the front will cause
precipitation to transition over to snow late Wednesday before the deeper
moisture exits the region and precipitation comes to an end.

Drier and cooler conditions are expected late week into the weekend with
just a few weak disturbances dropping down every couple of days, generating
some light snow showers as each passes.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain the next few days on top of an extensive snow pack is
expected to generate widespread minor flooding, mainly south of the Ohio
River. Moderate or even major flooding is possible, particularly in the
southeast quadrant.  The flood threat is lower in middle TN due to the lack
of snow on the ground, and also across the northern third of the Ohio Valley
where there is plenty of snow-pack, but the relatively cooler temperatures
will help alleviate excessive snowmelt concerns.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced under 0.10" for parts of
the northwest, northeast, and southeast Ohio Valley. The majority of the
region was dry.

...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Locations south of the Ohio River can expect 2" to 3.50", most of which
will fall as rain. The higher end totals are expected across the lower
Cumberland, Green, Kentucky, and Licking watersheds. North of the mainstem
Ohio, amounts between 0.25" to 1.00" are expected with locally heavier
amounts to 1.50" immediately along the Ohio River. Precipitation will
change over to snow late Wednesday.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
None.

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

$$
jm



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