Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 301706
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
106 PM EDT Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Low pressure exiting the region into New England has resulted in a decease of
showers this afternoon. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are still
possible in the southeast basin into Friday. The big question is what happens
as this storm system interact with Joaquin over the weekend. Forecast models
are still having problems dealing with this complex weather pattern. However,
at this point it looks like significant rain is possible over the eastern third
to half of the basin over the weekend into early next week.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
The river flood potential will be low through Friday. Flood potential will
rise, especially in southeast sections of the Ohio basin, as remnants of Joaquin
interact with a developing storm system in the southern states.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Rain was widespread once again across the Ohio Valley. The greatest totals were
across southeast Ohio, through western Pennsylvania into western New York wit
1.5 to 3 inches with some isolated totals above 5 inches. Some scattered ares
of 1 to 3 inches were noted over Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and West
Virginia. However, most of the basin saw around a half inch except over northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio with a tenth inch or less.
...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Rain will be heaviest over the eastern Tennessee, southeast Kentucky through
Virginia and southern West Virginia with a half inch to an inch and a half.
Amounts taper to a tenth inch or less over middle Tennessee, central Kentucky,
northern West Virginia. No rain is forecast over Illinois, nearly all of
Indiana and the northern half of Ohio.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation