Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 051702
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1202 PM EST Thursday, December 5, 2013
A strong cold front is crossing the Ohio Valley today. This feature will
stall over the southeast Ohio Valley and a couple waves of low pressure
will ride along the front. Heavy, persistent rainfall is expected in the
southern and eastern portions of the basin through Friday night. Rain will
turn over to a wintry mix or snow along and north of the Ohio River, and a
transition to all snow will occur on the backside of the system as it moves
out Saturday morning.
There will be a brief break in the action early in the weekend before another
strong low pressure system moves through on Sunday. This system is expected
to produce another round of heavy rain over the same area through Sunday
night. Otherwise, the majority of next week is looking quiet with cool
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
The flood potential will increase over the next several days as the
aforementioned weather systems affect the basin. The flood chances are
mainly along and south of the Ohio River at this point. This first system
(Thursday-Friday night) will serve to moisten up the soils, while
the 2nd system expected Sunday/Sunday night will be the event that
produces the possibility of minor to moderate flooding at several points.
There is a slight chance that some locations could reach major flood stage.
The greatest threat will be in KY, but parts of TN, southern/eastern OH,
WV, and southwest PA could be affected as well.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Showers associated with a crossing cold front produced localized amounts of
0.25" to 1.00" along the Ohio River. Elsewhere, light showers produced
around 0.05" or less in the western basin. The eastern half of the Ohio
Valley was dry.
...72-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Heavy rain of 2" to 3" is forecast along an axis extending from middle TN,
up through KY, and into southern OH and western/northern WV, and
southwestern PA. Amounts taper off on either side of this axis.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Detailed precipitation graphics and other maps are available on the HAS Support
Page at this web address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/HAS
QPF from OHRFC, HPC, et al., can be seen at weather.gov/ohrfc/Forecast.php