Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 281757
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1257 PM EST Friday, February 28, 2014
A weak disturbance will lift through the region Friday night/early Saturday.
This will result in very little measurable precipitation, mainly in the western
Conditions deteriorate rapidly Saturday night as an Arctic airmass
collides with warmer air pumping up from the south. The result will be a
major winter storm for the Ohio Valley Sunday into early Monday. This
system will likely produce significant rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
Temperatures will then plummet to well below normal behind the system.
Temperatures will moderate towards the end of next week. No significant
precipitation is expected after Monday next week. A system towards the end
of next week is expected to move south of the area, but may provide some
rain to the southeastern Ohio Valley.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Minor to moderate flooding persists across the western and northwestern
Ohio Valley. The potential for new flooding remains somewhat elevated
because of ice jamming issues across the northern half of the region.
Otherwise, the next threat will arrive late this weekend and early next
week. Currently flooding is not anticipated with this weekend`s storm system,
but it can not be completely ruled out.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Light snow fell across parts of the northern and eastern Ohio Valley.
Liquid equivalent amounts were 0.10" or less.
...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Day 1 of the forecast features very little precipitation...mainly over
portions of the western Ohio Valley. Day 2 has precipitation over all but the
southeastern portion of the basin. Basin average amounts increase to the
northwest, but still only reach around 0.25 inch across far northeastern
Indiana and northwestern Ohio.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Points along the following river basins were in flood Friday morning:
River Basin Forecast Point Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
Ohio River Newburgh Lock & 38 41.0 Falling
Ohio River Mount Vernon 35 38.3 Falling
Ohio River J T Myers Dam 37 39.1 Steady
Ohio River Shawneetown 33 37.1 Steady
White River Petersburg 16 21.0 Steady
Wabash River West Lafayette 11 12.6 Falling
Wabash River Covington 16 23.7 Falling
Wabash River Montezuma 14 18.0 Falling
Wabash River Terre Haute 14 18.5 Falling
Wabash River Riverton 15 20.1 Steady
Embarras River Lawrenceville 30 30.9 Falling
Wabash River Vincennes 16 17.6 Steady
Wabash River Mount Carmel 19 21.2 Rising
Wabash River New Harmony 15 16.1 Steady
Tiffin River Stryker 11 11.5 Falling
Detailed precipitation graphics and other maps are available on the HAS Support
Page at this web address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/HAS
QPF from OHRFC, HPC, et al., can be seen at weather.gov/ohrfc/Forecast.php
* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.