Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 131830
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
130 PM EST Friday, January 13, 2017

On Friday, a stationary front lay along the southern edge of the Ohio Valley.
North of this front an persistent band of light to moderate rainfall was
affecting the southern Ohio Valley. This band of precipitation will oscillate
north and south somewhat through the weekend, but precipitation totals will not
be excessive.

On Sunday night and Monday the front will lift north as a warm front drawing
moisture northward again. Beginning Tuesday a very active pattern will return
to the Ohio Valley with various disturbances moving from southwest to northeast
across the region bringing significant amounts of rain. Details on the timing
and track of these disturbances are not obvious at this time, but the potential
for some excessive rainfall and resulting flooding are worth noting.

Minor to moderate flooding is already occurring in portions of northern
Indiana, northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and far western New York
where rains over the past several days have produced significant runoff. There
will be some additional flooding as this water moves downstream in Indiana, but
flood potential for new flooding elsewhere is low through the weekend.

There is potential for flooding over a more widespread area by mid-next week.

Rain fell nearly everywhere in the basin. Areas receiving more than 0.50 inch
of rainfall included portions of Kentucky, eastern Indiana, much of Ohio,
western Pennsylvania and western New York. Highest amounts ranged from 1.00 to
1.75 inches in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.

Precipitation is forecast across the southern two-thirds of the Ohio Valley with
highest amounts ranging from 0.40 to 0.90 inches across southern Illinois,
Kentucky and West Virginia.

Points along the following river basins were in flood Friday morning:
 River Basin     Forecast Point   Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
Allegheny River  Olean                 10         12.1    Steady
Allegheny River  Salamanca             12         13.4    Falling
French Creek     Meadville             14         14.4    Rising
Allegheny River  Mosgrove L&D #8       19         19.2    Falling
Allegheny River  C.W. Bill Young       17         17.2    Steady
Mahoning River   Leavittsburg          10         14.0    Falling
Mahoning River   Warren                10         10.5    Falling
Mahoning River   Youngstown            14         14.5    Falling
Killbuck Creek   Killbuck              15         15.3    Steady
Scioto River     La Rue                11         12.5    Falling
Wabash River     West Lafayette        11         12.9    Rising
Tiffin River     Stryker               11         11.6    Falling
Black River      Elyria                 9          9.6    Falling
Grand River      Painesville            8          9.8    Falling

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.
Link Crawford

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