Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 261743
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
143 PM EDT Friday, June 26, 2015
A significant rain event is forecast into Saturday.
A digging upper level short wave from the upper Mississippi Valley will
produce frontogenesis in Ohio River Basin spawning a deepening surface
low typical for a cold season scenario (~15 mb drop in 24 hours...
impressive for Summer!)...as a surface low moves from near St Louis to
Erie PA where it stalls as the deepening process wanes.
With warm season instability in place and tropical moisture available to
feed the wintertime dynamics...ingredients are in place for a very heavy
rain event. QPF has 2-3 inch rain totals north of the mainstem...but
it is very...very possible that 3-5+ inches could be the actual numbers
when the rain guages are read for the event.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
An elevated flood potential exists across the northern watersheds.
Elsewhere...flood potential is near normal.
The risk for flooding rains will persist thru Saturday night. Significant
rises can be expected on tributaries across the northern Ohio Valley
including the Lake Erie drainage near Cleveland. Flash flooding is
also a concern along smaller creeks.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Thunderstorm complexes moved from mid Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley producing heavy rains across the watersheds in the state
of Kentucky. (1 to 3+ inches)
...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
2 to 3 inches are forecast across northern Ohio Valley...would not
be surprised to have 3-5+ inches fall in some locations. South of
this swath of maximum rainfall...1 to 2 inches are expected elsewhere
in the Ohio River Basin.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Points along the following river basins were in flood Friday morning:
River Basin Forecast Point Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
White River Edwardsport 15 18.4 Falling
White River Petersburg 16 20.5 Steady
Wabash River West Lafayette 11 13.3 Rising
Wabash River Covington 16 20.3 Steady
Wabash River Montezuma 14 23.5 Rising
Wabash River Terre Haute 14 21.5 Steady
Wabash River Riverton 15 23.3 Steady
Wabash River Lawrenceville 30 35.1 Steady
Wabash River Vincennes 16 21.9 Rising
Wabash River Princeton 18 18.9 Rising
Wabash River Mount Carmel 19 24.8 Rising
Wabash River New Harmony 15 17.9 Steady
Little Wabash Ri Clay City 18 20.2 Steady
Little Wabash Ri Carmi 27 34.1 Rising
Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation
* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.