Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 261743
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
143 PM EDT Friday, June 26, 2015

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A significant rain event is forecast into Saturday.

A digging upper level short wave from the upper Mississippi Valley will
produce frontogenesis in Ohio River Basin spawning a deepening surface
low typical for a cold season scenario (~15 mb drop in 24 hours...
impressive for Summer!)...as a surface low moves from near St Louis to
Erie PA where it stalls as the deepening process wanes.

With warm season instability in place and tropical moisture available to
feed the wintertime dynamics...ingredients are in place for a very heavy
rain event. QPF has 2-3 inch rain totals north of the mainstem...but
it is very...very possible that 3-5+ inches could be the actual numbers
when the rain guages are read for the event.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...

An elevated flood potential exists across the northern watersheds.
Elsewhere...flood potential is near normal.

The risk for flooding rains will persist thru Saturday night. Significant
rises can be expected on tributaries across the northern Ohio Valley
including the Lake Erie drainage near Cleveland. Flash flooding is
also a concern along smaller creeks.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...

Thunderstorm complexes moved from mid Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley producing heavy rains across the watersheds in the state
of Kentucky. (1 to 3+ inches)

...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...

2 to 3 inches are forecast across northern Ohio Valley...would not
be surprised to have 3-5+ inches fall in some locations. South of
this swath of maximum rainfall...1 to 2 inches are expected elsewhere
in the Ohio River Basin.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...

Points along the following river basins were in flood Friday morning:
 River Basin     Forecast Point   Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
White River      Edwardsport           15         18.4    Falling
White River      Petersburg            16         20.5    Steady
Wabash River     West Lafayette        11         13.3    Rising
Wabash River     Covington             16         20.3    Steady
Wabash River     Montezuma             14         23.5    Rising
Wabash River     Terre Haute           14         21.5    Steady
Wabash River     Riverton              15         23.3    Steady
Wabash River     Lawrenceville         30         35.1    Steady
Wabash River     Vincennes             16         21.9    Rising
Wabash River     Princeton             18         18.9    Rising
Wabash River     Mount Carmel          19         24.8    Rising
Wabash River     New Harmony           15         17.9    Steady
Little Wabash Ri Clay City             18         20.2    Steady
Little Wabash Ri Carmi                 27         34.1    Rising

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.
$$
Wheeler




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