Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 121909
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
209 PM EST Thursday, January 12, 2017

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cold front will progress southward across the Ohio Valley Thursday and become
somewhat stationary over Kentucky by Friday. Moderate to heavy rain will affect
the northern and middle portions of the basin as the front moves south. Between
Friday and Sunday the front will generally remain along and south of the Ohio
River providing modest amounts of precipitation. Some precipitation will extend
north of the Ohio River and may be in the forms of freezing or frozen
precipitation there.

On Sunday night and Monday the front will lift back north as a warm front
drawing moisture northward again. From Tuesday through at least Thursday next
week disturbances moving from southwest to northeast across the Ohio Valley
will bring significant amounts of rain to the region.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Minor to moderate flooding is already occurring in portions of northern Ohio
where rains on already wet soils have produced significant runoff. There is
some elevated potential for some minor flooding in portions of northwestern
Pennsylvania and northern Indiana.

There is potential for flooding over a more widespread area by mid-next week.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Rain fell nearly everywhere in the basin. Most locations received around
0.25" or less, but heavier streaks of 0.50" to 1.00" were observed from central
Indiana, across northern Ohio and into northwestern Pennsylvania and western
New York.

...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Rain is expected basinwide. The heaviest axis will be oriented from southwest
to northeast from Kentucky, through much of Ohio, West Virginia, western
Pennsylvania and far western New York where 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain is
expected.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Points along the following river basins were in flood Thursday morning:
 River Basin     Forecast Point   Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
Cuyahoga River   Independence          16         16.2    Rising
Nimishillen Ck.  North Industry         9         10.3    Rising
Grand River      Painesville            8         10.9    Falling

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.
$$
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