Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 280053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
853 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The evening sounding shows the dryness associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that is sliding west of the are at this hour.
The Miami upper air data is similar, and may have sampled the post
sea breeze atmosphere. MIMIC TPW would suggest a swath of
moisture making its way across the Bahamas, heading westward to
South Florida and the Keys. Winds remain light and out of the east
to southeast. The only showers showing up on the Key West radar
are over South Florida and the remnants of the earlier sea breeze

The only changes for the forecast will be overnight reducing rain
chances to 20 percent, a slight chance. The dry air in place will
be nudged to the west on Friday by the swath of moisture
mentioned above, and seen in the MIMIC TPW products. With the
added moisture, a favorable vertical winds profile, and lingering
boundaries, expect cloud lines to spawn showers and thunderstorms.
No other changes are expected to this forecast cycle.


No advisory or cautionary statements are expected through
Wednesday. High pressure over the Atlantic will attempt to expand
the ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. A
trough will dig southward across the Deep South and possibly north
Florida on Monday. Breezes will remain gentle to light and clock
around to the southwest to west on Sunday.


VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals overnight. Surface winds will be generally out of the east
near 5 knots. Shower coverage may increase overnight around the
islands, but there is too much uncertainty in timing and location,
as well as duration, to include in the terminal forecasts at this


July 28, in Keys Weather History, in 1876 2.32 inches of rain fell
in Key West. This set the daily record for rainfall on July 28th,
which stands 141 years later. Rainfall records for Key West date
back to 1871.




Data Collection......Chesser

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