518
FXUS61 KALY 101936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy and cool conditions with some lingering showers
expected mainly west of the Hudson River this evening into
tonight, with some clearing from around Albany south and east
overnight. Saturday looks to be mainly dry, especially for areas
from Albany south and east. Then an upper level low will bring
additional showers Saturday night into Sunday, with continued
below normal temperatures. Unsettled weather continues into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Instability showers that developed over eastern NY associated
with some limited diurnal heating under the upper level trough
should gradually dissipate into this evening, as daytime heating
wanes. Otherwise, there may some lingering scattered light
showers west of the Hudson Valley in closer proximity to an
inverted surface trough shifting wet into west/central NY. The
main upper level trough axis moves east off the coast overnight,
resulting in mainly dry conditions once any leftover showers
dissipate. Lows should be in the upper 30s to upper 40s again
under mostly cloudy skies.

Short wave ridging develops on Sat ahead of an
approaching/deepening upper low approaching from the Great
Lakes. Subsidence associated with the ridging should result in
mostly dry conditions, especially from the Capital District
south/east much of the day. As heights aloft start to fall as
the trough gets closer, chances for showers will gradually
increase from west to east during the afternoon to early evening
hours for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Despite the cool air
mass in place, some sunshine should help high temperatures
reach the lower/mid 60s in most valley locations, with 50s in
the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper trough moves into the region Sat
night, with the core of the upper low tracking into western
NY/PA. This system will bring additional scattered to numerous
showers, spreading east across the area through the overnight
hours. With clouds/showers around, low temperatures will range
from upper 30s to upper 40s.

The upper low/trough consolidates over eastern NY into New
England on Sun, which will continue to result in areas of
showers pivoting around the circulation. Will continue to
mention high chance to likely PoPs through the first half of the
day. As the upper low tracks into western New England late in
the day, coverage of showers should tend to decrease. With more
extensive cloud cover and showers around compared to Sat,
temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the 50s to lower
60s.

The upper low shifts eastward off the New England coast Sun
night, with short wave ridging developing in its wake. This
should result in clearing skies with cooler low temperatures in
the upper 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower
elevations.

Upper ridging already flattens out on Mon, while at the surface
a warm front will be quickly approaching from the west. So
chances for showers will gradually increase during the day with
the approach of the warm front. Depending on how much sunshine
can occur during the first half of the day, temperatures are
expected to moderate back to near normal levels (upper 60s in
valleys).

Will continue to mention mainly chance PoPs for showers Mon
night as the warm front progresses north/east across the area.
Lows will be milder than recent nights with upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our region is expected to be in a warm sector with a SW flow
aloft developing, as an upper low tracks east across central
Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will be gradually pushing
eastward during the day. There should be enough forcing just
ahead of the front to result in likely showers, with perhaps
some thunderstorms depending on how much heating/instability can
develop.

The cold front pushes south/east across the area Tue night,
bringing additional showers. The front is then expected to stall
in vicinity of the northern mid Atlantic region. As an upper
trough moves into the central/southern Appalachians, a surface
wave of low pressure may develop along the stalled front. So
chances for showers could linger into Wed depending on the
eventual position of the front/wave. Will mention chance PoPs
for now until guidance comes into better agreement.

Thu now looks to be a dry day, as the front/wave move well
offshore and ridging develops both at the surface and aloft.
Temperatures could warm to slightly above normal levels given
sufficient sunshine.

The upper ridge axis shifts east of the area on Fri, as a
potentially strong system starts to approach from the upper
Plains states and Midwest. Guidance differs with the
timing/track this far out, so will go with chance PoPs for now.
If the pattern ends up more amplified, dry conditions may
persist through the day though.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are in place across all
terminals early this afternoon. An upper-level trough and
surface disturbance will bring some light, scattered rain
showers into the evening hours before gradually tapering off and
shifting mainly to the west of the Hudson Valley overnight into
Saturday. Best shower chances are at KPOU. Showers will likely
be nearby KALB/KGFL at times so included VCSH. Most shower
activity should stay west of KPSF. The light nature of these
showers shouldn`t prevent vsbys to lower much below the VFR
range. In the wake of these showers, cigs should remain mostly
in the VFR range through Saturday morning with some partial
clearing also possible.

Wind will be mainly light or easterly at 5-10 kt through this
afternoon, then become light to calm overnight. Wind will then
become southeasterly at 4-8 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun