Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 182055
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will build into the area tomorrow and Friday, so
that will keep convection at bay with gradually warming
temperatures.

The upper ridge will shift eastward toward the east coast
Saturday, putting the local area on the periphery of the ridge.
Expect moisture to return to the area. A few isolated showers and
storms will be possible, primarily across southern areas where
moisture availability will be highest.

A strong upper trough will dig into the desert southwest over the
weekend. As this trough progresses eastward, several fast moving
impulses will move around the trough. The first will aid in shower
and thunderstorm development on Saturday. Expecting scattered
showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

The more active day will be Sunday as the main trough axis and
cold front approach. Have bumped POPs up to around 70 percent for
the entire area, and this still 5 to 10 percent lower than most
guidance. Model timing of the cold front is coming into better
agreement. There is now only about a 6 hour difference between
the GFS and Euro, with both of them indicating the front should
pass through the area some time Sunday night. Expect another round
of cool and dry weather behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Northeast flow this afternoon has maintained lowered dewpoint
readings in the 50s. However, inland taf sites will near calm winds
and reach saturation between around 08z. As a result, there could be
some very low BR conditions at KMCB, KHDC KHUM and possibly KBTR
Thursday morning between 09 and 13z. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected through 00z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A broad general weakness over the central to southern gulf will
continue to interact with strong high pressure to the northeast
keeping most of the coastal waters in moderate easterly flow through
the week. Less wind speeds expected over Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Borgne and the Mississippi Sound. There will be a diurnal
fluctuation each day in wind speeds with the highest being found
overnight.

A few showers will begin to make their way back to the coastal waters
later today but will be well offshore. These showers will gradually
begin covering more of the area through the weekend with a few
thunderstorms moving back into the forecast on Friday and lasting
through a frontal passage Sunday night or Monday. Strong offshore
flow can be expected next week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  54  82  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  54  82  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  63  81  68  83 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  57  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  54  83  59  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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