Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 302038
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
338 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Weakening squall line progressing eastward, only has Plaquemines
Parish and Jackson County to move through, but forward movement of
line has slowed considerably over the last couple hours. In
addition, weak band of showers and thunderstorms has developed in
between the line and the cold front, which is just entering the
west edge of the CWA. Winds have dropped off considerably behind
the squall line, and will cancel wind advisory. We are past high
tide as well, and with loss of strong southerly winds, will end
coastal flood advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Once precipitation clears the area this evening, about 48 hours of
quiet weather. Lower dew points will bring much cooler overnight
temperatures the next two nights, 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the
last couple nights. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to
warm to near 80 tomorrow and into the mid 80s on Tuesday. Next
shortwave moves through the area Wednesday night and Thursday.
Shortwave will be tracking closer to the area than the one
affecting the area today with surface low tracking from the
ArkLaTex area into Tennessee on Thursday. This will bring another
round of thunderstorms and very heavy rain to the area Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. With much of the local area receiving
around 2 inches of rain today, will need to monitor for potential
flooding issues, primarily Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Severe threat also non-zero, will continue to monitor. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Once Wednesday/Thursday system clears the area, drier weather
through next weekend. Below normal temperatures for Friday and
Saturday, especially low temperatures, before moderating to around
normal Sunday. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently located from KPQL
to KBVE. The bulk of lightning exits in a ~50 mile swath of the
eastern edge of the line. It will continue to progress eastward this
afternoon, bringing the end of precip around 00z to 06z. Have been
removing TS wording from TAFs as the convection ended. Will use VCSH
for much of the afternoon. IFR/LIFR ceilings will lift as the rain
shifts east as well. MVFR to VFR conditions will return tonight as
well.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

Will lower Advisory Flags for western waters to Exercise Caution,
and drop all headlines on tidal lakes. As of now, will use
Exercise Caution for remainder of overnight after Advisory
expires for the open waters and sounds. Somewhat calmer weather
for about 48 hours until next system approaches on Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories will probably be necessary from Wednesday
afternoon into Friday for some or all of the coastal waters.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Radar operations.

Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN  = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE   = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
         visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
         Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
         Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED    = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
         tropical threats; events of national significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  80  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  52  81  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  56  81  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  59  81  61  83 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  80  60  82 /  30   0   0   0
PQL  58  80  54  82 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ532-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

&&

$$



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