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000
FXUS64 KLIX 280828
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Wind gusts are already up to 20kt this morning over land so this
is where we will start for today. Again, 20-25mph very likely
today with gusts to 30-35mph. A wind advisory will be posted for
today mainly for the frequent gusts 25+mph through the day. The
other headlines will remain as posted. Water levels will rise with
these consistant winds and levels 1-2ft above normal levels
should be the result and today should be the highest of the 3 days
that this will be possible. We will again bring precip numbers up
a bit for the Pearl River and Mississippi coastal areas for
today. The upper trough is moving just a bit farther east this
morning and SPC has been updating their risk areas farther east.
The current line of storms over TX will continue eastward at a
slow pace eventually becoming orphaned as the cold front backs off
in east TX. But instead of decaying, this line will have support
from the H3 jet with the upper trough to our NW coupling with the
strong almost zonal flow coming across the EastPac into Mexico and
over the gulf. This will set up a strong split flow at H3 near
our area and will move east with time tonight and Monday. The
upper trough will not move much farther east than the
Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday. This means that as the area of
divergence aloft moves east, it will eventually become weaker as
it moves to the Miss/Ala state line. And this will cause
subsequent weakening of the complex of sh/ts moving ESE Monday. No
frontal passage with these storms but they will offer some
temporary cooling as they cold pool out. This could give our area
some much needed rain as well. SPC has a marginal risk at the
moment for this activity and this seems to fit very well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling
only to retrograde will continue. This doesn`t change a lot here for
much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this
front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of
the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week
but it could bring some rain to the area which has been lacking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mix of IFR to the north but mostly VFR and MVFR cigs will become
all VFR by late morning and remain through the day. All sites will
fall to IFR cigs tonight into early Monday. Very breezy
conditions(~15020G30KT) will exist again today for all terminals
with a stable SE wind direction. There is the possibility of a few
-SHRA today but not enough of a chance to show in taf set.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will remain over all marine areas through
at least the next few days if not more. Small craft advisories have
been extended for this reason. There will be some gusts to gale
force, but this should not be the rule most of the time. But this
will be a high end advisory for all waters. Winds will remain out of
the SE through this fcast but should ease just a bit as we move
through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  67  78  63 /  20  10  90  60
BTR  89  72  84  69 /  10  20  90  50
ASD  84  69  83  66 /  20   0  70  50
MSY  85  72  84  70 /  20   0  70  50
GPT  80  69  81  66 /  20  10  40  50
PQL  82  67  83  65 /  10   0  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE