Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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116 FXUS64 KAMA 120500 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A weather system continues to impact the southern plains through the rest of the weekend. This system is still over the desert SW today but it is progressing ever eastward increasing its influence over the panhandles. Currently the placement of this system has set up a SE wind field over the region which is pumping ample moisture to the panhandles. This moisture is fueling the rain showers and thunderstorms that the panhandles is currently experiencing. As additional moisture arrives through the rest of today and Sunday the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms will increase. In addition the higher amounts of moisture will allow for higher rainfall amounts to occur from any given rain shower or thunderstorm. Sunday will see the system depart the desert SW and pass over the southern plains. The passage of this system will spin up a surface low during the morning hours in the western panhandles and eastern NM/CO. This feature along with the weather system itself will provide additional instability and shear. These in turn will help to strengthen and organize the expected thunderstorms. This increased activity will be most prominent in western panhandles for Sunday morning. This activity should then shift to the eastern panhandles during the later morning hours before departing eastward prior to noon. This early activity may provide some inhibition that would inhibit thunderstorm development during the afternoon to evening hours. However if enough instability is able to regenerate then further round of thunderstorms can be expected. It is this second round of thunderstorms which would have the best environmental conditions to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Current thinking is that the central to NE portions of the panhandles will be the area of concern for these thunderstorms as these areas are less likely to have been impacted by the morning convection and be able to regenerate CAPE. As the surface low pushes eastward it will shift the wind direction initially to the west then to the NW. This will help to move moisture out of the panhandles with the rain showers and thunderstorms ending slowly in a west to east fashion starting Sunday afternoon. This system will be capable of producing accumulations of half an inch to even over one and a half inches for spots that see multiple round of rain showers or thunderstorms. However flooding chances are expected to be low around 5 percent as it is unlikely that any one spot will see continued heavy rainfall over a short duration. It would be more likely for spots that see the high end rainfall to see a rain shower here and there that will then add up to the higher amounts. The passage of this weather system coupled with the ample cloud cover, rain showers, and thunderstorms will lead to cooler temperatures through the weekend. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 As the upper low begins to exit on Monday, areas of increased lift on the backside of the system may help to continue generating some showers and embedded storms across the northeast Panhandles through the afternoon hours. Tuesday will be warmer and dry, with highs in the 80s forecast area wide. Although most guidance is dry Tuesday, there are hints that moisture return to the area may be ahead of schedule, with a stronger push of 700mb theta-e advection from the west. If a subtle shortwave can manage to round the crest of the upper level ridge by Tue afternoon-evening, we can`t entirely rule out a stray storm or two somewhere over the Panhandles. But given the unfavorable large scale pattern, this would only support a <20% chance of precipitation. Wednesday continues to be our day of interest, when models agree an approaching trough will help to break down and displace the 500mb ridge. If moisture advection to the area is already in place, instability should be able to build by Wed afternoon as temperatures climb back into the 80s. Assuming deep-layer shear ahead of the trough is sufficient, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop in the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional showers and storms could develop overnight into Thursday along and behind the cold front as it moves through, until the better dynamics exit and dry air returns. After a brief cool down on Thursday, above average daytime temperatures return heading into the weekend. There is still plenty of uncertainty amongst model guidance, but at this time the signal appears to be suggesting an active pattern is possible next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting KDHT, and KGUY may see some thunderstorms work in as well in the coming hours. KAMA will see showers and possible thunderstorms later in the night. Each site will see periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are present at all sites but MVFR to IFR ceilings will work in later. Visibility restrictions are present at KDHT, and other visibility restrictions will be possible at the other sites during persistent rainfall. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 51 77 50 / 50 70 60 20 Beaver OK 79 51 75 50 / 30 90 90 60 Boise City OK 70 49 72 47 / 80 90 70 40 Borger TX 73 54 80 51 / 60 80 60 40 Boys Ranch TX 67 53 80 48 / 70 80 40 20 Canyon TX 65 52 77 47 / 60 70 50 10 Clarendon TX 66 53 72 52 / 50 70 70 30 Dalhart TX 69 51 75 44 / 70 90 50 30 Guymon OK 77 53 75 48 / 60 90 80 50 Hereford TX 63 53 80 47 / 70 70 50 10 Lipscomb TX 77 50 73 52 / 30 90 80 70 Pampa TX 72 52 74 52 / 40 80 70 40 Shamrock TX 73 52 71 52 / 30 70 80 50 Wellington TX 68 53 72 54 / 40 60 90 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...52