398
FXUS62 KCHS 102210
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
610 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure
will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm
system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Convection upstream continues to occur thanks to MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear around 50 knots. The trend
will be for it to congeal into clusters or even a broken line as
it shifts southeast toward and eventually into our region this
evening. The forecast has been adjusted to account for this, now
showing as much as scattered coverage moving into Berkeley
County by 8 pm, into much of the Charleston, Dorchester, and
Colleton by 9 pm, then into Beaufort and Jasper by 10 pm.
Isolated coverage will also happen further west during the
evening, but taking until around 10 pm to reach Chatham County.
Given DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, there certainly will be
some potential for strong or maybe even severe winds. Since
there has been several reports of large hail upstream, it does
remain a possibility for it to reach parts of our area too.
Although the wind potential seems better Also, the warn on
Forecast does have as much as a 20-25% probability of severe
winds reaching Berkeley County. Nothing widespread, but we will
continue to mention this potential in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. The overnight period continues to look to be rainfree.
No changes to low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: A stout northwest flow will dominate aloft
as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Quiet, dry
conditions will prevail with forecast soundings showing modest
capping aloft with low net moisture values (PWATs <1"). A modest
west/northwest flow atop the boundary layer should delay/pin
the afternoon resultant sea breeze both afternoons. Low-level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s/near 80 on
Saturday warming into the lower 80s on Sunday. Lows Saturday
night will drop into the mid- upper 50s inland with mid 60s at
the beaches with upper 50s/lower 60s inland and upper 60s/near
70 at the beaches Sunday night.

Monday: A warm front will begin to organize to the south and
move north into the area as a storm system develops to the west.
Isolated to scattered showers/tstms could develop near this
feature in the afternoon, but the bulk of anything meaningful
looks to remain south of the Altamaha River. Forecast soundings
north of the warm front are not overly unstable with meager
MLCAPE, positive LI`s with K- indices <30C noted, so conditions
do not look overly favorable for deep convection despite highs
warming into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Pops 20-30% look
reasonable during this time with any mention of thunder being
confined to mainly Southeast Georgia due to some uncertainty on
location/timing of the developing warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday Night and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north and the region
becomes fully embedded within the warm sector of an approaching
storm system. Modest forcing for ascent ahead of a number of
southern stream impulses embedded ahead of a shortwave that digs
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will steadily increase
within an increasingly moist environment. There are a few model
signals that a large convective complex along the northeast Gulf
coast/Florida Panhandle could disrupt moisture transport into
the area which could limit the amount of convection over
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia Tuesday. These
trends will have to be watched carefully. For now, a blend of
the NBM with the drier SuperBlend consensus was used to
construct pops. Pops 60-70% were highlighted for Monday night
with 80% pops for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will range from the
lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Highs
Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s, limited by
extensive cloud cover and showers/tstms.

Wednesday and Thursday: Overall, rain chances will be lower for
Wednesday into Thursday, but some degree of convection can be
expected as a series of weak fronts/troughs move through the
Southeast States. Chance pops were highlighted during this time.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through
18z Saturday. The main forecast challenge will be the potential
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and early this evening, primarily near KCHS and KJZI.
We have added in a few hours of VCSH as the confidence of direct
impacts at KCHS and KJZI remains low. A thunderstorm will be
possible too, but chances aren`t high enough to include a
mention of TSRA. Whatever activity does develop will shift
offshore in the evening and the rest of the period will be dry.
Skies will clear out overnight as well. Winds will turn
northwesterly and then northerly overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into
the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Mariners can expect some of those t-storms upstream to
make it into the northern waters by 8-9 pm, then into the
southern South Carolina waters an hour or so later, and finally
into the Georgia waters before midnight. A few of these storms
could result in strong winds in excess of 35 kt, along with
frequent lightning strikes. Marine Weather Statements and/or
Special marine Warnings are possible.

Elevated west-southwest flow will continue this evening, with a
solid 15-20 knots and a few isolated gusts up to around 25
knots. An inland cold front will shift offshore by the early
morning hours and winds will turn northwesterly and eventually
northerly. Wind speeds will remain elevated into the 15-20 knot
range. A few gusts up to around 25 knots will be possible, but
we have opted to not issue any Small Craft Advisories at this
time as winds should remain below criteria most of the time.
Seas are forecast to average 2-4 feet through the night.

Saturday through Wednesday: There are no concerns through
Monday. The risk for Small Craft Advisory conditions will
increase Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
and storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...