617
FXUS62 KCHS 291744
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
144 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, then a
weak cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This Afternoon: Aloft, the main axis of a mid-upper level ridge will
be placed across the Southeast United States through much of the
day, then show signs of shifting offshore late as a trough shifts
across parts of the Deep South. At the sfc, high pressure centered
across the Atlantic will extend across the local area, favoring an
onshore wind that slowly veers from east to south-southeast during
the afternoon. Strong insolation throughout the day and 1000-850 mb
thickness levels support max temps a few degrees warmer than the
previous day, generally ranging in the low-mid 80s away from the
coast. At the beaches, the onshore wind/seabreeze shifting inland
will limit high temps to the mid-upper 70s.

Tonight: While the Atlantic high at the surface remains in
control, the ridge aloft is nudged east in advance of a short
wave that is initially near the ArkLaTex and reaches near the
southern Appalachians late. There might be a few showers out
near the Gulf Stream, but nothing over land areas. We`ll be able
to radiate decently early on, under mainly clear skies and
light winds. But an increase in cirrus clouds with the short
wave will arrive from the west late, and that along with the
formation of some late night stratus, will prevent us from
getting as cool as Monday morning. Lows will be mainly upper 50s
and lower 60s, with middle 60s closer to the shore, and in the
metro areas of Charleston, North Charleston, and Savannah. There
remains enough boundary layer moisture to potentially produce
some late night fog well inland, especially if stratus does
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pronounced upper shortwave will slowly move through the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. A decent slug of moisture will accompany
the feature with PWATs around 1.25". Surface-based CAPEs will be
500-1000 J/kg Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
showers and tstms possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
shortwave is expected to move off the coast by late Wednesday
morning, however some guidance hints at a weak surface trough
lingering over southern SC into Wednesday afternoon. There could
be just enough moisture and convergence to support a few
showers or tstms Wednesday afternoon, especially across the
northern half of the area. Tuesday highs will be in the mid 80s
and Wednesday will be mid/upper 80s.

Deep layered ridging will occur on Thursday, yielding a dry and
toasty day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge will persist into Friday before pushing off the
coast over the weekend. Then, a quasi-zonal flow will develop
with a series of shortwaves rippling through. Greater coverage
of mainly diurnal convection expected during this period. Above
normal temps will persist with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18Z Tuesday. Any low stratus and/or
patchy fog late tonight looks to occur well inland from all sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
This Afternoon and Tonight: High pressure centered across the
western Atlantic will extend across region, maintaining quiet
marine conditions across local waters. Even with a subtle boost
from a seabreeze circulation early afternoon, east winds veering
to south-southeast will peak no higher than 10-15 kt. Seas will
range between 2-4 ft, largest across offshore Georgia waters.

Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant feature Tuesday
through Saturday, with winds generally no higher than 10-15 kt
and seas 2-4 ft. A moderate coastal sea breeze will develop each
afternoon.

Rip Currents: A small swell every 9 or 10 seconds, and
continued onshore winds, will result in a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at all beaches today.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB