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000
FXUS63 KJKL 182046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will approach tonight and pass through the area on
  Friday, bringing showers/thunderstorms for most if not all
  locations.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the
  cold front and carry through the first part of next week.

- Another cold front will then near and pass through late Tuesday
  and Tuesday night, bringing another round of rain along with a
  possible thunderstorm.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024

Surface low pressure was over the mid Mississippi Valley late
today, with a cold front trailing southwest into TX. A warm front
extended east from the low, through KY. Higher dew points are
making a comeback with passage of the warm front. Thunderstorms
are developing near the cold front and in some locations in the
warm sector in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models are in good
agreement for the low tracking east northeast to OH by Friday
morning and its cold front entering the JKL forecast area. The
leading edge of showers and thunderstorms developing to our west
and southwest makes it through eastern KY late tonight and Friday
morning. Considering the timing during the min in diurnal
instability and only modest shear, the severe weather threat will
be limited.

The cold front will be exiting to the southeast late Friday, and
cooler and drier air will start to make its way into the region
behind the front on Friday into Friday night. Clouds will
eventually clear, and that will set us up for a much cooler
night, with some valleys potentially seeing mid to upper 30s by
dawn on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024

The period starts off quietly, with a spurt of dry weather, high
pressure, and temperatures a bit below normal in the low to mid 60s
thanks to deep NW flow. This NW flow will continue through the
weekend, keeping temperatures cool. In fact, Saturday will be even
cooler, as a system passes to our south, and brings increased cloud
cover. Highs that day will only be in the upper 50s. This same
system may also result in some light rain showers making it into the
far SE portion of the CWA, as the main area of convection remains
to our south and southeast. Given the cool temperatures, and not
being close to any boundaries, it is unlikely we will have much
instability, so not expecting any thunder with this.

This system will continue to move east of the region, leaving Monday
as our last day of surface high pressure across the state, keeping
conditions dry and skies mostly clear. The added sunshine will help
boost temps back into the 60s across the CWA, despite continued N
flow. The interesting part of Monday is that, despite surface high
pressure, models are all showing a closed low moving across the
state during the day Monday as well. Yet, none of them show any
convection occurring across the region as a result, at least until it
gets well SE of the state.

Things start to take a bit of a wet turn on Tuesday. High pressure
will have moved east of the region and we will go back into a SW
flow regime, with increased temps (highs in the upper 60s and low
70s), moisture, and instability. An upper level low pressure system
will be present across the north-central U.S. Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, a surface low will be moving eastward across the Midwest
and into the Great Lakes Region during the day. This will drag a
cold front to the SW, which will traverse KY during the afternoon
and overnight of Tuesday. Showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms will overspread eastern KY during the afternoon and
evening. What instability we do have will diminish as we head
further into the overnight, so expect mainly rain after midnight
across the CWA. While the bulk of the precip will exit by Wednesday
morning with the system, the return of deep NNW flow may keep some
llvl moisture in the form of upslope light rain well into the day on
Wednesday.

Models are in surprisingly good agreement even into Day 7, with both
the GFS and ECMWF showing a large area of high pressure moving in
for Thursday, along with continued NW flow - which should keep
temperatures from climbing to well above normal. That being said,
the NBM does have some slight chances of rain that pops up during
the day Thursday, so there is a past or current model somewhere that
is showing some light precip during this time frame. Given that it`s
Day 7, and it`s only a low-end slight chance, went ahead and kept
the NBM pops in the forecast, but would be interested to see if it
trends dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail late into tonight. Showers and
possibly thunderstorms are then expected to arrive from the west
from 06-13Z, with generally MVFR conditions arriving not long
after the precipitation. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be
less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL