Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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683 FXUS62 KMFL 101729 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 129 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHOIRT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 102 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Models show mid-level ridging centered across SoFlo gradually been flatten as a shortwave trough and associated sfc low migrate over the SE US. This will keep SoFlo in the warm sector of the system, with warmer than normal low temps continuing tonight. For Saturday, very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface flow are expected, with afternoon highs again in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will hit low 100s. Later in the afternoon and evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across the area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach County (30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of South Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate lapse rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of effective bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East Coast. The primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop would be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Long range solutions depict a frontal boundary moving across the state on Sunday, with the decaying boundary stalling just to the south of the peninsula. Drier and a little cooler air will descend upon the area in the wake of the FROPA, with afternoon highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Models show fair agreement in having the remnants of the boundary gradually retrograding and pushing northward across SoFlo through mid week. In response, winds gradually shift to a more SE flow on Monday, and SSW by late Wednesday into Thursday. There should be enough moisture filtering in the low levels for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially along sea breeze boundaries. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices may reach or surpass 100 across much of SoFlo. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR should prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds will become generally SW in the 10-14kts range with gusty periods through 00Z, then becoming light again by 05-06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Moderate to fresh SSW winds will gradually shift W by Saturday as a cold frontal approaches the area. The Atlantic waters will likely reach small craft exercise caution criteria late this evening into tonight. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach coastline for the rest of today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 94 74 90 / 0 20 10 10 West Kendall 73 95 71 93 / 0 10 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 95 74 92 / 0 20 10 10 Homestead 75 94 73 90 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 93 75 87 / 0 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 76 94 75 88 / 0 30 10 20 Pembroke Pines 76 97 74 92 / 0 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 73 93 74 88 / 10 40 10 20 Boca Raton 75 94 75 88 / 10 30 10 20 Naples 77 88 72 89 / 10 20 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...17 FIRE WEATHER...CF AVIATION...17