182
FXUS62 KMLB 101441
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1041 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Not much has changed from the previous discussion. An MCS moved
south this morning from North Florida which threatened the
northern portions of the CWA, but the majority of the convection
with near severe winds remained north of the the area and is
currently pushing off the east coast of North Florida. While the
main threat for severe weather isn`t expected until midday, we
are continuing to monitor outflow boundaries within the unstable
air mass which could trigger thunderstorm development a tad
earlier than expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Some areas of stratus will be possible across the area this
afternoon, producing IFR/MVFR conditions. However, this lower cloud
cover should diminish into late morning. Showers and isolated storms
may approach Lake/Volusia counties from late morning into early
afternoon, but should then diminish in coverage. A outflow boundary
pushing southward into north central FL may initiate additional
showers and storms this afternoon, with another band of convection
possibly forming along a southward moving cold front into tonight.
Some strong to isolated severe storms may be possible with any of
this activity, but overall confidence in stronger storms and overall
rain chances remains low. For now, have limited any mention to
VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs. W/SW winds increase to 10-15 knots this
afternoon, with gusts to 20-22 knots. Winds then decrease to 5-10
knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Today-Tonight...An approaching cold front from the north will keep
ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the
waters today, with the front then pushing southward through the area
tonight. W/SW winds up to 10-15 knots become S/SW into the afternoon,
with wind speeds continuing to increase up to 15-20 knots offshore
out of the W/SW into tonight. Seas 2-4 feet, increasing up to 5
feet offshore late tonight.

Saturday-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions this
weekend. A cold front will settle into South Florida on Saturday,
with high pressure in its wake that will push off into the Atlantic
by Monday. Isolated storms are possible over the waters on Saturday
south of Sebastian Inlet and for all of the local waters by Monday
afternoon as moisture increases. A sea breeze should form both
afternoons this weekend, with afternoon winds becoming NE to E from
10-15 KT. By Monday, winds increase out of the SE, 12-17 KT during
the day. These winds may freshen further, approaching advisory
territory by Monday night ahead of a weather disturbance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Today...Hot conditions, breezy W/SW winds and some lingering drier
air will produce elevated fire weather concerns today. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for Indian River, St. Lucie and Okeechobee
counties, where lowest Min RH values of 30-35 percent are forecast,
and where winds look to be just strong enough, around 15 mph, for
Red Flag conditions to be met. Farther north, min RH values will
range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with breezy W/SW winds
forecast.

Saturday-Monday... Fire-sensitive to near-critical conditions at
times this weekend away from the coastal corridor. WNW winds of 10-
15 mph will deliver a punch of drier air down the peninsula for
Saturday, with only a 20-30% storm chance lingering for the Treasure
Coast and Lake O region. Across the interior, RH minima will fall to
33-38% on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. By Sunday, winds turn
to the NE 5-15 mph, strongest along the coast where a sea breeze is
forecast. Localized critical conditions are possible on Saturday
afternoon, especially from Clermont to Okeechobee (the Kissimmee
basin). Winds turn toward the southeast from 10-15 mph on Monday,
locally gusting to 20 mph along the coast. This will carry an
increase in moisture and a chance for afternoon showers and storms.
Wetting rain chances increase, especially across the northern half
of Central Florida, from late Monday through mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  70  85  66 /  40  30   0   0
MCO  95  74  92  67 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  95  72  88  70 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  97  71  90  68 /  20  20  20   0
LEE  92  73  90  67 /  30  40  10   0
SFB  95  73  91  67 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  94  73  92  68 /  20  30  10   0
FPR  97  70  91  67 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-
     254-259.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
LONG TERM...Heil
AVIATION...99