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000
FXUS65 KMSO 110949
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
349 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be in place over western Montana
and north central Idaho today. Dry and relatively warm conditions
are expected. Some breaks in the clouds are expected this morning,
but clouds will increase by this afternoon.

A low pressure system moving southwards along the west coast will
shift the flow aloft to southwesterly by Friday. Pulses of energy
will eject off the parent low and move into north central Idaho
and western Montana, producing showers and thunderstorms. Forecast
models continue to show the best combination of unstable
conditions and shear across north central Idaho. This could lead
to a few strong storms Friday afternoon and evening.

The large low pressure system will move inland over southern
California this weekend, transitioning the Northern Rockies to
westerly flow aloft. The low pressure system will push warm air
up from the central United States. Temperatures will be around 10
to 15 degrees above seasonal averages for Saturday and Sunday.
This westerly flow will allow for gusty westerly winds to mix down
to the surface. The models continue to indicate that enough
moisture and instability will be around each afternoon for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
south of the I-90 corridor.

Forecast models continue to show with high confidence (80 percent
chance) a pattern change back to cool and unsettled conditions by
Tuesday. Numerous operational models show a strong cold front
moving through ahead of the trough on Monday. Windy conditions
with the front will be possible with current model guidance
showing a 50 to 60 percent chance of winds gusting over 40 mph
across western Montana and north central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will build over the Northern Rockies
airspace today. Winds will be light and terrain driven. Skies will
not be completely clear, but ceilings should remain well above
VFR heights.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$