Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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896 FXUS65 KPSR 072101 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 201 PM MST Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Near normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with elevated wind speeds expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures will warm to above normal on Friday with a gradual warming trend expected through at least the beginning of next week, where afternoon high temperatures will near tripple digits across portions of the lower deserts. Dry conditions continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of this afternoon, mid-level water vapor reveals a large scale trough over western CONUS with the low pressure system, associated with this trough, moving into the Dakota`s. 850mb analysis reveals a shortwave trough moving into southeastern California and western Arizona. This shortwave trough is tightening the pressure gradient overhead which is leading to some elevated wind gusts this afternoon that will continue into the early evening. Wind gusts will generally be around 20-25 mph in the lower deserts with gusts up to 30mph possible in the high terrain to the north and east of the Phoenix Metro. This shortwave trough will continue to move southeastward overnight and bring a weak cold front into the Lower Colorado River valley. Behind the front, occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph are possible in portions of southeastern California and far western Arizona, with gusts up around 40 mph possible along the ridge tops. Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned low pressure system will retrograde back towards the southwest over the next couple of days, which will keep our afternoon high temperatures near or slightly below normal through Thursday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the low pressure system will settle to our north by Friday and remain fairly stationary into the beginning of next week, although it is expected to gradually weaken. This will allow for afternoon high temperatures to go back above normal on Friday with a slight warming trend into the beginning of next week. The lower deserts are expected to see high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s, with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple digits by the start of next week. The higher terrain areas are forecasted to see high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s. Even though our area will be under the influence of this trough into next week, dry conditions are expected to continue. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1818Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under clear skies. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal patterns, with light easterly winds this morning becoming west to southwest during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Occasional gusts up to around 20 kts is expected during the late afternoon hours. Winds will weaken going into the overnight hours, with easterly winds returning after midnight. Breezy westerly winds will return again for Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, SKC conditions will persist. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will favor the west to southwest at the TAF sites through tonight before switching to the north early Wednesday morning as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Can`t rule out a few northerly gusts reaching upwards of 30-35 kts at KBLH by around 13-15Z, but the lack of mixing should overall inhibit more of these stronger gusts reaching the terminal. Otherwise, SKC conditions will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph are expected areawide this afternoon and early evening. A cold front will cause wind gusts of 30-35 mph (and around 40 mph along the ridgetops) in portions of southeastern California and far western Arizona tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Elsewhere wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Wind gusts will return to more seasonal values (afternoon gusts up around 20 mph) areawide for the latter half of the week. MinRHs, for the rest of this week, will be in the 5-10% range across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be in the 20-40% range. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below, normal through Thursday and return to above normal on Friday and through the weekend. Dry conditions will persist into next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Berislavich AVIATION...Smith/Young FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman