321
FXUS64 KSJT 011118
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MCS rolling across the Big Country early this morning and will
likely be clearing the eastern portions of the area before
sunrise. So far it has pretty much stayed below severe levels and
it is likely to stay this way. Outflow from the storms have surged
south well ahead of the storms and into the Concho Valley and
Heartland with gusts over 40 mph hear at the San Angelo airport.
Given the fast movement, this outflow appears like it will
continue to push south and out of the area later this morning,
removing 1 focus for convective redevelopment this afternoon.

Latest CAMs do not show a lot of development for the afternoon
across West Central Texas, with just a little across the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos late this afternoon working its way east
into the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau for the
evening. Given the air mass, will keep some small POPs in for the
afternoon hours with a little better chances for the western
portions of the area for tonight.

Temperatures are pretty close to normal, with highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

HRRR does show another outflow settling south into West Central
Texas for Sunday, with better chance for more convection Sunday
afternoon. Other CAMs are not as aggressive. Will generally carry
slight chance to chance POPs for Sunday and later forecasts can
fine tune based on whatever boundaries that get spawned today and
where they end up tomorrow. Otherwise, upper level ridge gradually
builds into the area for early in the week and this allows
temperatures to soar to near or above the 100 degree mark through
mid week. Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day with highs 102
to 106 in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings are currently present across the area with MVFR
stratus continuing to build across the southern half of the area.
While our far southern sites may see a brief drop to high-end IFR,
it should be short lived with most sites staying MVFR through
mid/late morning before lifting back to VFR. KABI, however, should
stay VFR through the entire period. Winds will pick up this
afternoon out of the southeast with a few sites seeing gusts less
than 20 kts. There is a slight chance of storms moving in from
the west this evening but confidence in coverage and timing
precludes any mention in this package.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  69  89  72 /  20  20  30  20
San Angelo  93  69  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
Junction    94  71  95  75 /  20  20  10  10
Brownwood   87  69  88  72 /  20  20  20  20
Sweetwater  89  69  91  72 /  20  30  30  20
Ozona       91  69  90  72 /  20  30  10  10
Brady       86  69  88  72 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...50