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000
FXUS64 KSJT 172256
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
556 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across western
portions of the forecast area. Dewpoints ahead of the dryline are
in the mid and upper 60s, with temperatures in the mid and upper
80s, with a few readings in the lower 90s. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop east of the dryline late this afternoon and early
evening. If storms do develop, they could possibly become strong
to severe, with a localized hail/wind threat. The HRRR has been
consistent in generating isolated convection primarily across the
Concho Valley by late afternoon/early evening. Will maintain 20
POPS generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line to account for
this potential. For the rest of tonight, expect low clouds to
develop late tonight across southern sections, which will linger
into the mid/late morning hours Thursday. Winds will remain light
overnight, with mild overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s.

For tomorrow, a surface cold front will enter the Big Country
around noon. The front is forecast to progress slowly south into
portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland counties by late
afternoon, with the dryline extending south across western
portions of the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.
Moderate to strong instability is expected by peak heating, with
SBCAPE`s in excess of 3000 J/Kg, along with deep layer shear
around 30 kts. Thunderstorm development is possible from the
Concho Valley and Heartland southward tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. Any storms that develop will have the potential to
become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main
hazards. Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big
Country prior to frontal passage, to the mid and upper 90s across
central and southern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The main focus for the long term will continue to be the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall event over the
weekend. Friday will be mostly dry with weak shortwave ridging
overhead. That will be begin to chance, however, as we head into
the weekend. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move
overhead beginning Friday night and continuing into Saturday. This
will provide increasing large scale forcing for ascent. With a
very moist airmass in place (precipitable water values in excess
of 1.5 inches) and the stalled frontal boundary serving as a
surface focus, multiple rounds of moderate to at times heavy
rainfall is expected. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible on Saturday although the severe potential is very low at
this time. WPC does have most of the area under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall on Saturday. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, some very localized flooding is possible where heavy
rain does fall especially in low lying urban areas. Otherwise,
most of the area should pick up some very beneficial rains which
is certainly welcome given the recent dry conditions. Rain chances
will peak Saturday afternoon and taper off by Sunday morning as
the shortwave trough moves off to the east of the area and upper
level ridging builds in from the west. The remainder of the long
term forecast looks mainly dry at this time.

Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend especially on
Saturday with the expected showers and storms and mostly cloudy
skies. Have undercut the NBM by several degrees for both Friday
and Saturday, with highs only in the 50s and 60s for much of the
area on Saturday. Temperatures will gradually moderate back into
the 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions across all sites early this evening, with
south/southeast winds around 10 knots. Expect these conditions to
persist through 06Z tonight, with MVFR ceilings developing at
KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA between 07Z and 10Z early Wednesday morning.
These low clouds will persist through mid morning before
scattering out of the area. Winds will be south to southwesterly
through tomorrow afternoon at KBBD, KSJT, KSOA, and KJCT. KABI
will start with southerly winds, but a cold front is expected to
move into the area during the afternoon, turning their winds to
the north by around 20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  92  55  66 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  66  98  60  73 /  20  10  20  20
Junction    68  97  63  83 /  20  30  30  10
Brownwood   66  93  58  69 /  10  40  20  10
Sweetwater  66  93  54  63 /   0  10  10  20
Ozona       66  96  63  78 /  10  10  20  30
Brady       68  94  61  72 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20