475
FXUS62 KTAE 200158
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The forecast is in great shape, so no changes to the forecast are
forthcoming.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon.
Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue
into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry
conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into
the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and
AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few
showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday,
the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on
Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the
afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for
the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected.
Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid-
level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer
moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up
shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture
and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in
the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this
potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a
shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a
shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS
just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see
if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday
or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on
Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s
through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually
warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conds prevail until after midnight when low stratus spreads
from NE to SW, likely impacting VLD/ABY and perhaps TLH. Have MVFR
to IFR cigs at those sites as soon as 7Z before improving mid-
late morning. Confidence is highest at VLD. Winds turn NE at 5-7
kts tmrw.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Despite only 6-knot breezes at Buoy 42036, distant winds over the
southern Gulf and western Caribbean are leading to southerly
waves of 4 feet at 8 seconds.

From CWF synopsis...Gentle northwest breezes this evening will
clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure bridges
down the Atlantic coastal plain and across the northeast Gulf.
This pattern will favor a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both
Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more
southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then
decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of
higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges
Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next
few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the
main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions
and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing
or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few
days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee
River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and
will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower
Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee
Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally
hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at
Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the
Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood
are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new
hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area
likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  86  65  88 /  10  10   0   0
Panama City   68  87  68  86 /   0  10   0   0
Dothan        65  84  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  84  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  85  63  87 /  20  10   0  10
Cross City    66  86  62  88 /  20  30  10  20
Apalachicola  69  82  71  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Monday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...LF