Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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132
FXUS63 KBIS 290532
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Current forecast on track with reality.

UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Current forecast looks good. No changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

High pressure extending from central Manitoba south into North
Dakota will keep skies mainly clear and the weather quiet tonight.
Current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Currently, surface high pressure extended from the Canadian Prairies
into the Dakotas, with low pressure over Hudson Bay and another low
over the 4-Corners area affecting the Front Range and central Plains
states. A weak upper level shortwave low was noted over southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan.

The weak surface high will weaken and move east slowly tonight, and
the surface wind flow will change from north/northeast today to
southerly on Saturday. The very dry airmass over ND, represented by
surface dewpoints ranging from 5F to around 20F this afternoon,
along with mainly clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to
drop into the 20s once again. We may again drop into the teens in
some locales, but we should be in the 20s most areas.

Mostly sunny and a bit warmer on Saturday with highs from the mid
50s to lower 60s. Noted the HRRR high res model indicating much
lower relative humidity again for much of western and central ND.
Thus attempted to match the 12z HRRR model run for afternoon
relative humidities...with ranges from 15% to around 25% for much of
our area. Luckily south to southwest winds should remain below 15
mph for the most part, and there should not be any fire weather
issues. Went a tad higher for afternoon highs as nam and gfs based
guidance was a bit higher than the blends...and seeing a bit warmer
conditions today with the same airmass in place tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Mild, but seasonably cool weather is still forecast for Sunday
through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Then a
warmer end of the week in store for Thursday and Friday with highs
in the 60s. A chance of precipitation also remains for the early to
middle part of next week.

The 12z global model runs were consistent with yesterday`s runs with
development of the larger 4-Corners area system mentioned in the
short term portion. The models develop the low eastward into the
southern Plains Sunday, lifting northeastward to Iowa by daybreak
Monday and into the Great Lakes Monday night/Tuesday. This scenario
would have the precipitation shield clipping eastern North Dakota
with mainly rain - but any westward movement of the track could
affect parts of central ND, especially the James Valley.

Meanwhile another shortwave in the northwest flow aloft ejects out
of southern Alberta Sunday and moves across ND Monday, bringing a
chance of light rain to western and central ND from this secondary
system on Monday. Another shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will
also bring a chance of light rain to our area Tuesday, followed by
another weak wave Wednesday.

For the end of the week, a western upper level ridge builds into the
Front Range and northern Plains, for a dry and warmer end to the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Vfr cigs/vsbys along with light winds next 24hr.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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