Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202042
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
342 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong winds expected tonight through Saturday.

Tonight, an upper level trough begins an eastward progression across
the Northern Plains. A strong associated cold front will move
east ahead of the upper trough into western North Dakota tonight,
then into central ND by 06Z Saturday. Strong cold air advection
and strong winds are expected with this system. A strong pressure
rise bubble, with a 3-HR rise max of 10MB, is advertised by the
12Z GFS/NAM to enter southwest ND between 02-04Z. The pressure
rise bubble decreases in intensity as it moves into central ND.
BUFKIT soundings are indicating peak winds at the top of the mixed
layer around 45kts in the southwest and around 30kts in central
and eastern areas of the CWA. Momentum transfer is expected,
especially in the west, as phasing between surface and 850mb winds
is expected; highlighted well within the 12Z model suite.
Although uncertainly remains as to how much energy will transfer
to the surface, there is enough confidence to issue a Wind
Advisory for the southwest.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for Southwest North Dakota
from Friday 9 PM (MDT) through Saturday 6 PM (MDT).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Progressive flow aloft is projected for the long term.

A series of upper level troughs are forecast to move across the
Northern Plains through the extended. Chances for precipitation will
accompany each disturbance though overall chances look
underwhelming. Wind will be the bigger impact with each system.
Breezy/windy conditions are expected to persist throughout the long
term. Monday has the potential for strong winds, as another surface
front is expected to move across the area.

Wednesday night-Thursday the 12Z GFS/ECMWF push a strong cold front
across the state. Another strong wind event looks to unfold if
models stay their present course. -4 to -10C 850mb temperatures are
also advertised for Thursday to advect into the area on the backside
of this potential front. Though the timing of the front remains
questionable, below average temperatures are forecast for the latter
days of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A strong cold front will enter western ND after 00Z and sweep
east across the state to the James Valley by daybreak Saturday
morning. Strong winds are expected with this system. LLWS is
forecast to impact each of the TAF sites through the 18Z period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Saturday for
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC



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