Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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438
FXUS65 KBOU 182057
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
257 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A dry conveyor belt pushing south through the evening will
stabilize conditions over the plains and cut off the flow of
moisture from the west. This will dissipate the mountain wave with
a dry cold front bringing increasing NNE winds over the eastern
plains. It will be another mild evening and overnight with lows in
the mid 40s on the plains. For Thursday...upper level flow will
turn more SW with an incoming trough over the Great Basin by
thursday morning. Conditions will be mostly sunny with an upper
level cloud deck and temperatures reaching once again into the mid
70s on the plains. Winds will pick up over the eastern plains
counties mainly east of I-25 by the late afternoon with sustained
speeds of 10 to 15 mph with some gusting to 25 mph at times. RH
values will rebound better than previous days with values in the
20s and 30s over the areas with higher winds. Do not expect
increased fire danger but caution is advised over the windier
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Busy long term period but little in the way of sensible weather.
Upper level flow is characterized by 500 mb trough moving through
the region through the weekend, transitioning to northwest flow
for the remainder of the forecast period. Starting Thursday night
a weak upper trough will pass through Colorado in southwest flow
ahead of the mean trough, however moisture is limited and only a
few clouds will result. South to southwest flow over the region
Friday will continue warm trend, with temperatures on the plains
well into the upper 70s. The main trough moves through Friday
night and although still low moisture will be enough to squeeze
out a little bit of snow in the mountains. Rain at the onset
Friday night, then changing to snow as snow levels lower in colder
air. Vigorous cold front will accompany the upper trough, passing
through after midnight Friday night. Daytime temperatures Saturday
will be noticeably cooler, in the 40s mountains to 50s on the
plains.

Sunday through Monday in northwest flow will see a slow moderation
of temperatures and dry weather. A deepening trough will dive into
the central US Monday night into Tuesday with a surface dry cold
front from the north, clipping the far eastern counties with
gusty north to northwest surface winds.

Only changes to model guidance were to beef up surface winds
Thursday night through Monday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be
variable with speeds from 3 to 5 mph through 22z where winds will
gradually switch to a more SE direction. Southerly winds will move
in with speeds from 5 to 8 mph by 01z then drainage by 05z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin/Hanson
AVIATION...Bowen



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