Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 262200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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