Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 301935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.  ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



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