Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 280252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER ON...EVEN AFTER PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



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