Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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296
FXUS61 KBTV 191427
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature
across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7
days. Hurricane Jose will remain south of New England, but
onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low
clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont
tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal
averages for mid to late September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1026 AM EDT Tuesday...Updated to increase expected cloud
cover this afternoon across eastern VT/CT River Valley.
Persistent light easterly flow will keep moisture trapped and
will likely be difficult to erode.

Reminder of the discussion from earlier this morning...

Generally quiet wx conditions continue during the near-term
forecast period with a narrow axis of high pressure anchored in
place across northern New England and New York. Will see just
some very outer fringe effects from Hurricane Jose in the form
of some marine stratus across ern VT/CT River Valley and into
Rutland county with SE flow advecting marine moisture wwd into
ern VT this morning. While there will be some breaks, this will
have the effect of keeping temperatures a bit cooler in the CT
River Valley this afternoon. Have also carried a chance of rain
showers for Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties tonight into early
Wednesday morning with Atlantic moisture interacting with weak
deformation in the flow around 700mb as Jose makes its closest
pass while remaining southeast of the 40N 70W benchmark per NHC
track guidance. Deformation forcing may cause some light bands
of rain pushing nwwd into portions of ern/s-central VT, but any
rainfall is expected to be light (0.10" or less), and may see a
trend for radar echoes to decrease as they push into the
prevailing ridge further north across VT and far nrn NY.
Elsewhere, will see some patchy fog 06-12Z Wednesday. Winds will
continue light south-SE today, but then turn into the north
10-15mph on Wednesday as winds respond to the cyclonic
circulation of Jose. May need to watch Lake Champlain for a Lake
Wind Advisory with channeling effects, but right now appears
sustained winds over the lake will be in the 15-20kt range for
the most part.

Temperatures are starting warm for mid-Sept once again this
morning, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Will see
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s from the
Champlain Valley wwd across nrn NY, but in the low-mid 70s for
central/ern VT due to clouds and marine influence. Overnight
lows above normal again tonight...with 50s to lower 60s.

Will see highs on Wednesday generally in the upr 70s to lower
80s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose.

Jose pulls away from the east coast and looks to have diminishing
potential influence for the short term as the main weather driver as
the large upper ridge shifting in from the west that will be in
control. This will lead to another quiet and dry day for Thursday,
though temperatures will be slightly cooler with northerly flow over
the region. Even still temps will still be above seasonal norms with
highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...As mentioned before, the large upper
ridge will dominate our weather through next weekend. Most of
the models continue to want to loop Jose ESE from New England
and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge
to build in more. This leads to unseasonably mild and dry
weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the
mid-upper 70s to mid 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s.

Looking beyond this period, with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose,
Maria looms in the distance and could have potential impacts for the
US next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...TAF sites are mainly VFR early this AM,
with the exception of periodic MVFR ceilings with marine stratus
affecting RUT/MPV. Will see a tendency for these clouds to
erode ewd with daytime heating, so should see RUT/MPV trend VFR
later this morning and thru the afternoon hours. Looking for
winds mainly S-SE 5-10 kts, except light NE at KMSS. May see a
few rain showers with fringe effects of Jose offshore southeast
of New England, but activity will mainly affect SERN VT and
remain south and east of TAF locations. Carried just VCSH at RUT
after 01Z Wednesday. Lesser cloud cover tonight across nrn NY
may allow for additional fog/BR formation KSLK and possibly KMSS
06-12Z Wednesday. May see marine stratus shift back wwd into
RUT/MPV TAF locations during the overnight hours, with potential
for MVFR (1.5-2.5kft) ceilings.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos/NRR
NEAR TERM...Banacos/NRR
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Banacos



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