Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 282038
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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