Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON


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