Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 291952
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will end from west to east this evening...but any dry
periods will be short lived. The threat for more showers and a
few thunderstorms will exist Tuesday afternoon and evening and
an even greater likelihood of showers and storms will exist on
Wednesday. Our next best chance for dry weather will not come
until Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Monday...Distinct back edge to the rain is
moving across northern New York late this afternoon and will
continue to move east through the evening hours. Perhaps there
will be an isolated shower or two from sunset through
midnight...but overall its looking dry. There may even be some
breaks in the clouds over northern New York to catch some
evening sun. Low level flow remains sufficient to limit
widespread fog from developing but could see some localized
areas of fog over northern New York with lingering low clouds
over eastern Vermont. Lows will generally range from the mid 40s
to the mid 50s.

Convective threat will exist over the area on Tuesday...but
parameters not really coming together for more organized
convection. There may be some showers over northern New York in
the morning...which may affect the development of instability in
this area...but deep layer shear will be increasing over this
area. Thus instability gradient likely to form more over Vermont
where deep layer shear will be weaker. Nevertheless...looking at
increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon...especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. Highs
will generally be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EDT Monday...For the first half of Tuesday night
we`ll likely still be dealing with some scattered convection
across eastern portions of the forecast area, but as instability
lessens with the loss of insolational heating and shortwave
energy aloft shifts east, the trend will be towards a quieter
overnight. Despite some clearing and whatever rainfall we get
Tuesday, the low-level flow overnight should be strong enough to
preclude any widespread fog development though can`t rule it
out in the deeper hollows that typically decouple no matter what
the flow is. Lows will be mild ranging through the 50s.

Another round of convection is expected Wednesday as well, with most
likely more areal coverage than Tuesday. SBCAPE`s are in the 500-
1000 J/kg range, but as the activity initiates over the Adirondacks
around the noon hours, the best deep layer shear is exiting to our
east. So while I`ve highlighted fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms, none are anticipated to become severe but could
produce some 30+ mph winds with some locally moderate rainfall
through the evening hours before activity subsides. Temps Wednesday
and Wednesday night should be right around normal with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Monday...Really no change from the previous
forecast thinking as the pattern for the extended period hasn`t
changed in days, largely controlled dominated by an upper level
low that is blocked by a strong northern Atlantic low pressure
system. While every day has a chance for showers, the best
chance looks to be Friday, with potentially drier conditions for
the weekend, but timing individual shortwaves rounding the base
of the trough to our north is very difficult so many days out.
Temps through the period should be very seasonal with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday....Despite widespread rain exists across the
entire area this afternoon ceilings and visibilities remain in
the MVFR and VFR categories. Noticeable back edge to the
precipitation exists across central New York and thus looking at
precipitation coming to an end by 00z at all locations. Still
looking at MVFR and VFR ceilings after 00z and for the remainder
of the period. Winds aloft will continue overnight and this
should limit fog potential...but plenty of low level moisture
remains for some low clouds and fog to develop at KSLK and KMPV.
There may be some showers across northern New York and western
Vermont after 12z...but majority of any precipitation will come
after 18z. Winds will remain from a general southerly direction
through the period at speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range with some
gusts to 20 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. South winds have dipped
into the 10 to 20 knot range late this afternoon...but once the
precipitation ends this evening winds should increase back up
into the 15 to 25 knot range. The winds will increase even
further into the 20 to 30 knot range on Tuesday. Winds of this
magnitude will create rather choppy conditions on the
lake...especially on Tuesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson
MARINE...Evenson



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