Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 022048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight, and
will bring a chance of rain and snow showers. The region will
remain under cyclonic on Saturday with a chance for more rain
and snow showers. A ridge of high pressure will build into the
north country on Sunday, and will bring fair and dry weather to
the north country from Sunday through Tuesday.


As of 330 PM EST Friday...An upper trough will move southeast
from Canada overnight, and will bring a chance of rain and snow
showers to the north country overnight. This upper trough will
bring colder air at the surface and aloft to the north country
overnight and Saturday. The higher elevations of the Adirondacks
and Green Mountains could see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight.
Lows will be mainly in the 30s, except in the 20s over the
higher elevations.

On Saturday, the north country will remain under cyclonic flow
from the departing surface low pressure area over the Canadian
maritimes. Will go with chance pops for rain and snow showers on
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the 30s.


As of 349 PM EST Friday...Northwest flow persists with cloudy
skies and snow showers, mainly across elevated terrain and
western slopes. Froude number forecasts increasingly blocked
flow throughout the night, but deeper moisture will be
decreasing throughout the night. Therefore, high chance POPs
focused around the terrain and immediate western slopes will
decrease throughout the night with windward valleys possibly
seeing a few snow showers. There is a chance for DZ/FZDZ as
indicated by NAM BUFKIT thermal profiles as moisture layer
shrink from above resulting in lack of ice nuclei. GFS BUFKIT
brings this drier air aloft into the area later with moisture
also eroding from the surface, more in line with stubborn low
clouds than precipitation. At this point in time, confidence not
high enough to include DZ/FZDZ in forecast. Min temperatures
will generally range from the upper teens to mid 20s.

Weakening northwest flow with drying trend will bring an end to
snow showers mid-late Sunday morning as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes region. Expect partial clearing of clouds
under the ridge, but lingering low level moisture trap under an
inversion may keep portions of the North Country in mostly
cloudy skies. Max temperatures will range from the upper 20s to
upper 30s.


As of 349 PM EST Friday...Models consistent with regard to dry
Sunday night and only low chances of light precipitation, mainly
across our western counties Monday as a dampening shortwave
trough moves across the region. Increasing clouds and scattered
light snow, with rain mixing in the valleys will be accompanied
by max temperatures in the 30s.

High pressure returns with dry weather, partial sunshine and
light winds Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be
near normal to slightly below normal for early December.

A mid-week storm is poised to affect the North Country, however
models still differ on the evolution of southern stream 500mb
shortwave moving across the SE USA and reflected at the surface
as a coastal low by late Tuesday. Ridging over New England will
affect how far north the 500mb shortwave travels along with
progression of larger 500mb low over south central Canada.
Potential for mixed precip event as the surface high slides
north Tuesday night keeping NE cold air advection near the
surface while warming aloft occurs as precip moves in. Still
much uncertainty.


.AVIATION /21Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...An upper trough will move through the
region overnight. Expecting rain and snow showers to gradually
change to snow showers overnight as colder air at the surface
and aloft moves into the region. Surface winds from the west-
southwest will also gradually shift to the northwest overnight,
as the upper trough moves through the region. Expecting areas of
MVFR ceilings, with some local pockets of IFR.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local
IFR possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers.

12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high
pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible,
especially at KMPV/KSLK.

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain
and snow showers.




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