Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 060238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERCAST SKIES TRANSITION TO VARIABLE
CLOUDS TONIGHT. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 322 PM EDT THURSDAY...WITH EXCEPTION FOR
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, OVERCAST SKIES STILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOFTED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ALSO ARE
HELPING TO LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER
NOVA SCOTIA. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT EAST, WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CLINTON, ESSEX AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF VT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT, MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S NORTH
WITH MORE CLEARING, TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIST FRIDAY - AGAIN, WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH - THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. I`VE SHOWN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH SCANT DYNAMICAL FORCING
AT PLAY TOMORROW, ANY SHOWERS WOULD TEND TO BE DRIVEN BY ANY
DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +11 TO +13C WOULD
SUPPORT WARMER HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY - IN FACT THE 12Z METMOS GOES FOR
70 AT BURLINGTON. I`VE LEANED A BIT COOLER AS SUNSHINE LATER IN
THE DAY SHOULD GO TO PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUD AND LIMIT STRONGER
HEATING. STILL, LOOKING AT MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THOSE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME
INSTABILITY BUT THE CONSENSUS IS STILL FAIRLY WEEK. BASED ON SOME
OF THE SREF PROB`S MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
RANGED FROM 25 - 500 J/KG WITH THE MEANS CLOSER 100-250 J/KG.
GIVEN THAT RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WAITING
ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A BIT MORE
DYNAMICAL FORCING HOWEVER THE CANADIAN IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SATURDAY`S CLOUD COVER. IF
THERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOME AREAS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70. HOWEVER IF WE REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER EXPECT MORE
IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY... A MORE POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND BRING
ORGANIZED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
AMONGST THE MODELS AND SO I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. THAT LEADS TO MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY BEING IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START THE WEEK WILL
BE HOW GUSTY THE WINDS ARE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A 70-80KT
500MB JET, AND CORRESPONDING 40-50KT JET AT 700MB, THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS
A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE OF HOW CLOSE IT IS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF
FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE SPREAD I DID SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOTH
WINDS AND GUSTS FOR MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT N-NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRYING OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL
LIFTING OF CEILINGS FROM 4-6KFT THIS EVENING...TO GREATER THAN
15KFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY WITH SCT-BKN060-080
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN HRS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
RUT/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. VFR/MVFR DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT RUT AND SLK 18Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN.
12Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS. 06Z MON - 12Z TUE:
VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TUESDAY ONWARD: VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



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