Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 240800
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will pass southward across the North Country
early this morning, bringing a northerly wind shift and slightly
cooler temperatures. Skies will trend mostly sunny by late
morning or early afternoon. After a quiet night, low pressure
moving northward from the Carolinas will bring numerous showers
across our region on Tuesday, and across eastern and south-
central Vermont on Wednesday. Very warm temperatures are
expected on Thursday with high pressure in place aloft. A
surface cold front will bring the potential for more showers,
and potentially a thunderstorm, on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...Relatively quiet weather today. A cold
front washing out near the intl border has brought a light nly
wind shift across far nrn NY and far nrn VT early this morning.
Will see a band of mainly mid-level clouds associated with this
boundary early this morning, but weak frontal convergence and
dry low-level air mass should preclude any frontal precipitation.
Will see increasing sun late morning/afternoon, but north winds
and low-level CAA will keep temperatures cooler than Sunday.
Looking for afternoon highs in the mid-upr 50s across nrn
sections, and low-mid 60s across the valleys of s-central VT as
cold front dissipates while tracking south. Continued quiet
tonight. Skies start mostly clear, but will see increasing cloud
cover from south- north associated with slow-moving closed low
over the Carolinas. This system will eventually spread light
showers nwd across our region during the daylight hrs Tuesday.
Marine modified low- level air will advect into ern VT, so will
see chilly temps on Tuesday with a low overcast; highs generally
upr 40s to lower 50s east of the Green Mtns. Looking for mainly
mid-upr 50s elsewhere...perhaps near 60F for highs Tuesday in
the St. Lawrence Valley. Total rainfall amts on Tuesday
generally expected 0.10-0.20", highest across s-central/ern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Moisture from a low pressure area at
the surface and aloft along the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night
will continue to spread northward into the region Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Thus, will keep in a chance of rain showers for
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Expecting some cloud cover to linger
across the region Wednesday night. A weak upper ridge will be
over the region on Thursday, so have gone with partly sunny
skies. Will bring in a chance of showers late Thursday night.
These showers will continue into Friday. Expecting a mainly dry
day on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds south from
Canada. Models showing a frontal system south of the region
Saturday night with ECMWF and GFS showing some overrunning rain
showers moving into the region north of the warm front for
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A dry cold front will bring a northerly
wind shift during the pre-dawn hours, along with a period of VFR
ceilings through 12-14Z or so. May see a brief period of MVFR
ceilings around SLK/PBG around daybreak, but overall impact
from this front will be rather limited. Skies will return mostly
clear later this morning and through the remainder of the TAF
period with sfc high pressure across srn Quebec in control of
our weather. No restrictions to vsby are expected through the
period. Winds generally N-NE at 5-10kts. Will see localized sely
winds at KRUT after 01Z Tuesday associated with local
orographic effects.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos



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