Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 021325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND OF DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SOME MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 922 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. TEMPS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM UP AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE I
TRENDED BACK THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
REALLY NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. HOPE YOU ENJOY THE START TO A
GOOD WEEKEND WEATHER WISE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... WATER VAPOR
SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES TODAY. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY DISSIPATING/THINNING BY 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT THINKING WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH...SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE TRRN TODAY. ALSO...UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE MTNS TODAY.
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NVA ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIP. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S MTNS TO MID 70S VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE CPV
AND NEAR VSF FROM DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET WX PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LARGE DAILY SWINGS IN
TEMPS FROM COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A WEAK 975MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE
SLV...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
SLK/NEK TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST TO
DEVELOP IN COLDER VALLEYS...GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR
TWO FROM TODAY...AND SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S MTNS/NEK TO
M/U 70S WARMER VALLEYS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TEMP AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT WISE TO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S COLDER PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VT
TO LOWER 50S WARMER CPV/UHI AREAS. SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT MAINLY TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS...WITH A SHARP
NOTURNAL INVERSION LIKELY.

ON SATURDAY...TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. 1ST S/W WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
APPROACH THE SLV BY 18Z AND INTO NORTHERN NY/VT BTWN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A VERY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS...ALONG
WITH WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500 MB RH. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT.
DURATION AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED ALONG WITH
ANY QPF. WILL MENTION JUST SCHC POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE
DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 11-13C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL
DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME.

THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY).

FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY
BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES
WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER
FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA.

THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE
SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT
AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT
KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR
IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS
FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV.

WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI
THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW


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