Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON






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