Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A WEST WIND AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST,
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW
GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BUT BULK OF OVC
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FORECAST WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS OUR FA...AS 1000 TO 500MB 540 LINE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL WAA ON SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WITH GOOD
MIXING WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 50F WITH FULL SUNSHINE...BUT WITH
CLOUDS AND LIMITED MIXING LVLS WILL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
MENTION HIGHS 30S MTNS TO M40S VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. ALSO...A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MTNS
AFT 18Z SATURDAY...GIVEN RH PROFILES AND UPSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRNT..ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE
SHADOWING OF PRECIP FIELDS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...AS DEEPER RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH APPROACHES OUR
CWA...THE BEST 5H SUPPORT IS LIFTING NORTHWEST OF OUR FA...AND RH
FIELDS WEAKEN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF. GIVEN THE LACK OF
COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM...ONLY A BRIEF 1 TO 3
HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS.
THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL BE NORTHERN DACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREENS...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
VALLEYS. LATEST GUIDANCES SHOWS LOW LEVEL CAA LAGGING SEVERAL HRS
BEHIND INITIAL RIBBON OF MOISTURE...SO AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MTNS...BEST MOISTURE IS EAST OF OUR
CWA. A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WILL TREND TWD THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SLV/CPV...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
OF EASTERN VT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO M40S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z MONDAY. THE LACK OF A
SHARP BOUNDARY/THERMAL GRADIENT AND LIMITED QPF WILL PREVENT ICY
ROADS FROM DEVELOPING. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND MIXING OF WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY LLVLS OUT. WILL
MENTION EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS...BUT
TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 10S SUMMITS TO MID 20S MIDSLOPES AND
30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL CONT TO FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE MTNS...AS LOW LEVEL CAA HELPS SQUEEZE OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE IN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE TEENS TO M/U 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM -12C ON
MONDAY TO -16 TO -18C ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
EXTEND INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND CLOUDS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH 00Z.
EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 02Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS MIXING/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHERN NY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR IN VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW



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