Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 072136
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
236 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

The lack of snow and cloud cover over the central zones have
allowed temperatures to increase this afternoon more than guidance
had suggested. This will complicate overnight temperatures.
Trended temperatures up a little overnight in the central zones.
Winds across Carter and Fallon counties will continue decrease,
but wind chill values will continue to be an issue. A Wind Chill
Advisory remains until tomorrow morning.

Thursday will see increasing clouds as a shortwave begins to
approach from the west, as an Atmospheric River begins to
influence the area. The Beartooth/Absaroka mountains will see
increasing snow chances. Going into Friday, moisture will
continue to spread into southern Montana bring snow chances into
the area. With easterly surface winds across much of the area,
temperatures will remain cold and enhance the snow production.
Along the foothills some westerly winds will work down, resulting
in some slightly warmer temperatures. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday is a pattern that should support continued snowfall but
main upper level dynamics will travel north of the area. However a
nice slug of moisture will move across southern Montana and
northern Wyoming with the arctic air deepening a bit in response
to a period of pressure falls west of the divide. Models
consistently show around .10 to .20 precipitation amounts for
areas west of including Billings and lesser amounts over southeast
Montana. This should be good for 2 to 3 inches of additional snow
bringing total accumulations since late Thursday night to 4 to 5
inches with southeast Montana closer to 2 inches. Mountains will
see considerably more precipitation but lower snow ratios.

Sunday looks drier behind the wave but continued cold with a
reinforcing pocket of arctic air trailing the wave. This will
bring a period of northwest winds which could bring low wind
chills and possibly some blowing snow. Monday the flow aloft turns
cyclonic as another very deep upper low moves southward into
Manitoba and taps into additional cold air to flow into the
region. GFS is a bit further east with this solution and given
upper air data issues today opted to not make much in the way of
changes later periods of the extended. borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

Most of region will see VFR conditions and light winds. Local
ceilings may be encountered near KBIL due to local industrial
activity and near KMLS due to snow bands extending from Fort Peck
reservoir. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 905/006 000/010 005/014 003/019 007/017 002/014 001/016
    11/U    23/J    46/J    22/J    33/J    22/J    21/B
LVM 909/009 001/026 015/028 016/028 014/025 011/020 008/024
    11/B    44/J    56/J    32/J    33/J    23/J    22/J
HDN 906/008 000/013 007/015 001/018 005/017 903/014 902/016
    11/U    12/J    46/J    22/J    33/J    22/J    21/B
MLS 906/003 904/007 002/008 905/010 902/009 906/008 903/011
    10/U    02/J    46/J    22/J    33/J    22/J    21/B
4BQ 911/006 905/010 004/014 901/018 002/017 903/013 000/014
    10/U    01/E    35/J    22/J    23/J    21/B    21/B
BHK 911/001 910/004 902/006 906/007 903/006 906/006 904/008
    10/B    01/E    47/J    12/J    22/J    21/B    21/B
SHR 906/009 001/018 009/019 003/023 005/019 003/015 002/018
    11/U    11/B    25/J    22/J    23/J    22/J    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Thursday FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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